Five factors to a Clemson return to the top |
The standard for success around Clemson football -- or at least the outside perception of it -- has undoubtedly changed over Dabo Swinney’s tenure, particularly after College Football Playoff appearances became the norm in 2015.
Last year’s 10-3 campaign was a shock to the system of sorts to Tigers used to spending the postseason in cities like Miami, New Orleans, Dallas or Glendale, but the Cheez-It Bowl victory over Iowa State did ensure the extension of the double-digit win streak going back to 2011. How Clemson’s season diverged to central Florida and not another CFP run has some easy explanations, and some more nuanced, while ascending back toward the top of college football has the same aspects. Taking a look at areas to watch for such a run in 2022: 5) Fewer roster shakeups Let’s get this out of the way: last year had a bizarre amount of hits to the roster from game one to game 13. In the starting lineup, five from the opener against Georgia did not play at all in the bowl and an additional 12 players who featured against the Bulldogs were either out due to injury or transferred out by December. Injuries – and particularly transfers in today’s college football – are going to take a bite out of any roster in a given season, but Swinney told reporters before the bowl game that Clemson was down 28 scholarship players going into the matchup. A prime example of that was true freshmen in Beaux Collins and Dacari Collins and former walk-on Will Swinney starting the final three games of the season at receiver. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei also played through injury, as well as backup quarterback Taisun Phommachanh, who later entered the transfer portal before the Cheez-It Bowl. Maybe just how the season unfolded afforded the sheer number of Tigers out or exited by late December, but obviously any run at an ACC title and Playoff berth can’t take that kind of roster hit again. 4) ‘No-Fly Zone’ improvements Clemson gave up over 300 passing yards in three games last season for the first time since 2015 (a season where 2-of-3 came back-to-back in the Playoff against Oklahoma and Alabama). The Tiger defense finished in the top-25 in both pass defense and pass efficiency defense – and often in the top-10 – from 2013-19, but it finished 34th last year and 41st in 2020 in yards allowed per game. Last year’s group did make a top-5 appearance in pass efficiency defense and faces replacing two All-ACC first-team cornerbacks in 2022. Adding back Bryan Bresee to the mix upfront will make an already aggressive front-seven help those numbers out, and help give some leeway to a talented group taking over on the corners and to a reconfigured safety group with Nolan Turner graduating. The secondary may have the most question marks on the defense coming in, but there is potential to be on par with recent elite units. 3) With that said…just keep being the Clemson defense The Clemson defense’s consistency as a unit over the last eight seasons is really unmatched. The Tigers have finished inside the top-10 in defensive efficiency from 2014-on and been among the top-4 for seven of the eight seasons versus FBS competition. In his first game calling the plays, Wes Goodwin’s group contained an Iowa State team averaging 33 points per game to 13, giving no early indication the defense left with Brent Venables to Oklahoma. Goodwin is leading the side of the ball with few, if any, glaring question marks and a number of players who could rack up national honors and NFL attention. Now, it’s just a matter of seeing the unit delivering another top-tier performance in 2022. 2) Increased tempo and efficiency offensively The 2021 campaign featured all kinds of lows offensively for Clemson football lately, with a myriad of issues (some mentioned already in the first point above) that bled into each other. Outside of the top-15 in offensive efficiency for the first time since 2014 (FEI), the 70.3 plays per game (vs. FBS teams) last season were the lowest since 2010 (67.8) and at least three fewer plays a game than any season from 2011-on (TeamRankings.com stats). Gone are the days of Chad Morris and his 80-play goal, but in Clemson’s Playoff run from 2015-20, the average was about 78 plays a game against FBS competition and that was the exact figure in the last CFP season in 2020. What will hurt chains-moving drives? Poor third down efficiency, where Clemson ranked 87th last year after averaging a 16th-best finish in the six-year CFP streak. And when the Tigers did go deep into opposing territory, the red zone efficiency was way down as well, dropping to 90th nationally after a 35th-best average from 2015-20. That led to another drop from the recent points per game, going from a No. 12 scoring offense on average from 2015-20 to 82nd last year (26.3). Returning eight starters and hoping for a deeper rotation than last year, whether the offensive woes are a one-year blip or a troubling trend will play a major role in ascending back to the top. 1) A passing game And it’s a whole lot easier to play with tempo and move the ball efficiently with even a decent passing game, which the 2021 campaign didn’t come close to having. Uiagalelei finished last among qualified ACC QBs in passer rating and 97th nationally in ESPN’s QBR metric. It was also the first season since 2001 that Clemson didn’t have a receiver top the 50-catch mark. On the QB side of the equation, Uiagalelei maintained his QB1 role through the spring and now seeks to find the form that had him putting up big numbers in a two-start 2020 stint at home versus Boston College and then at Notre Dame (390.5 passing yards per game/4 TDs-0 INTs/2 rushing TDs). The luxury for Clemson – and what aids the position group overall – is five-star freshman Cade Klubnik pushing Uiagalelei this spring and beyond – a push that didn’t seem to be there last season. It feels needless to say, but last year’s passing numbers won’t cut it and it appears Clemson has a viable option to turn to if that day comes this season. No matter who commands the attack, he will need better injury luck in the receiver corps, and that’s already off to a bad start with freshman standout Adam Randall’s torn ACL this spring. That said, Swinney will have Randall participating in a limited role in fall camp in hopes that the former 4-star receiver won’t be sidelined well into the season. His and Antonio Williams’ additions up the number of 4+ star prospects in the group by one season-to-season (7), even after losing Frank Ladson to the transfer portal in December. Joseph Ngata and EJ Williams each missed multiple games last year, with Ngata topping 100 receiving yards in two of the first five games then totaling six catches for 105 yards the remainder of the year. Williams missed five games and totaled just nine catches on the season. With the experience the Collins duo gained last year, it’s a group that has talent looking for a breakout season, and it can also take a step forward with an increased caliber of QB play.Five factors to a Clemson return to the top
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