National analysts make Clemson-Texas Playoff predictions |
Kickoff is approaching for the first-ever College Football Playoff games on college campuses, and 12-seed Clemson will play its part in the history on Saturday at 5-seed Texas (4 p.m./TNT-MAX).
The predictions are in, and one ESPN analyst doesn't think it will be close. "I'm taking the Texas Longhorns. I think it's going to be one-sided. I think this thing gets out of hand," ESPN's Greg McElroy said. "I think it's a bad matchup for Clemson. I think Texas will force Clemson to take the underneath stuff, they'll rally up, and when the field condenses in the red zone, Clemson is going to have a really difficult time running the football. Unless Phil Mafah reverts to the running back he was in the first 6-7 games of the year, I cannot envision Clemson having a lot of success running the football. I think they'll try to run Cade Klubnik, but I don't know how successful it will be. "I think Texas is too disciplined on the defensive front to allow quarterback draw to hurt them the way it's hurt some of Clemson's teams it has played against this year. I think Texas wins this thing going away. I don't know that Clemson will be able to score to keep up. I also think there's a chance it could be low-scoring. I'll take Texas in a one-sided affair against the Clemson Tigers." On CBS Sports, one out of seven expert picks take the Tigers straight-up, with Chip Patterson, but a majority pick Clemson to keep it within 11.5 points. Tom Fornelli explained his close-call pick. "I have concerns about Quinn Ewers. He still looks to be dealing with the oblique injury he suffered earlier this season, and it's impacting his play, particularly in the red zone. He can't put the kind of velocity on the ball that's needed in that part of the field, and it's impacting Texas' ability to finish drives. In the first three games of the season, before Ewers was hurt, Texas averaged 5.44 points per red zone drive. In the eight games since his return, that number has dropped to 3.56. Part of that is due to Texas' inability to run the ball this season, so it's possible a bit more Arch Manning at that end of the field could help, but Texas' run game being ineffective overall is another area that concerns me. The weakness of Clemson's defense this season has been stopping the run, where it ranks 76th in EPA per rush compared to 23rd in EPA per dropback," Fornelli said. "Can Texas exploit that enough?...As for the Tigers offense, the concern is they're capable of a no-show. We saw it in losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. The Texas defense has been phenomenal this year, and I expect it'll make life miserable for Clemson. But, in the end, I just don't have enough faith in the Longhorns offense to trust their ability to cover a double-digit spread." Still in that CBS Sports family, Brandon Marcello wrote about the top reason for each Playoff team to win a national title, and for the Tigers, it's Dabo Swinney: Dabo Swinney has the most experience in the playoff with seven appearances, including six straight from 2015-20, and somehow managed to pull Clemson out of three losses, including two at home, and into the CFP with an impressive win against SMU in the ACC Championship Game. Clemson might have long odds to reach the national championship, but don't sell a two-time national champion short. "After those losses, to recognize that everything's still in front of you, that's easier said than done, but coach Swinney has certainly been there," Clemson athletics director Graham Neff told CBS Sports. "You have confidence that he can lead the guys." Clemson enters the first round as a 10.5-point underdog at Texas. A double-digit underdog has never won in the CFP (0-8). CFN agrees with McElroy on a larger margin, taking the Longhorns 34-16. "Texas has a major turnover problem. It gave the ball away seven times in the last three games and multiple times in five of the last seven games. There will be a few Longhorn turnovers as part of doing business, but that won’t matter too much to the defensive side," CFN's Pete Fiutak said. "The Texas defense will stuff the Clemson ground game, there will be too many stalls, and too many Tiger drives will be finished off with Nolan Hauser field goal attempts." Both of 247Sports' prognosticators like Texas to win and cover the spread: Hummer (Texas -11.5) — This is going to tell us a lot about the gap between Clemson and the true powers of the sport. We got that sort of measuring stick Week 1 against UGA. Is Clemson any different? I don't like the Tigers' chances. Texas is flawed itself, but the Longhorns have the best defense in college football. That's a problem for a Clemson o-line that continues to be banged up. This is close for a while, but Texas manages to pull away late. … Texas 34, Clemson 21. Crawford (Texas -11.5) — This one's my favorite play of the first round because I'm under the belief Clemson will struggle to move the football consistently against this Texas defense. Quinn Ewers knows he can play better than he did last time out and I think he will against the Tigers. Clemson was lucky to get here after Syracuse upset Miami, leading to the Tigers' ACC Championship win over SMU and auto-bid. But the run ends here for Dabo Swinney's team. ... Texas 31, Clemson 13. National Clemson-Texas picks CBS Sports (straight-up): Clemson (Chip Patterson), Texas (Dennis Dodd, Tom Fornelli, Shehan Jeyarajah, Jerry Palm, Brandon Marcello, Richard Johnson). CBS Sports (spread): Clemson +11.5 (Patterson, Jeyarajah, Marcello, Fornelli), Texas (Dodd, Palm, Johnson). ESPN - Greg McElroy: Texas CFN: Texas 34-16 247Sports: Chris Hummer - Texas 34-21; Brad Crawford - Texas 31-13 FOX Sports - Joel Klatt: Texas 27-17
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