Clemson-Pitt game projections

Antonio Williams and the Clemson offense is rated No. 7 overall by ESPN FPI.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Wednesday, November 13 2024

Close ACC play strong and let the chips fall where they may.

That's Clemson's charge at Pitt Saturday (noon/ESPN) in seeking a 7-1 ACC regular season record to enter the metaphorical clubhouse in the Top 2 seeds for an ACC Championship spot before one-loss Miami (5-1), with a tiebreaker over Clemson currently, and ACC-unbeaten SMU (5-0), also with a tiebreaker with even one loss over Clemson, have wrapped their conference action.

Clemson is currently a 10-point road favorite to accomplish just that, and analytics give the Tigers a bigger statistical advantage than last week at Virginia Tech.

Here's how the metrics line up:

Clemson-Pitt by the numbers

Clemson SP+ (14 OVR): Off. - 12; Def. - 24; STs - 124
Pitt SP+ (37 OVR): Off. - 43; Def. - 41; STs - 9

Clemson FEI (14 OVR): Off. - 8; Def. - 22; STs - 111
Pitt FEI (53 OVR): Off. - 70; Def. - 46; STs - 27

Clemson FPI (12 OVR): Off. - 7; Def. - 18; STs - 133
Pitt FPI (42 OVR): Off. - 50; Def. - 53; STs - 21

Regarding projections, the majority like Pitt to cover the spread, but the FEI does take Clemson and the points with a 77.1% win chance for the Tigers.

Last week in Blacksburg, Clemson improved to 5-4 against the spread this year, while on the other side, Pitt is 6-3 against the spread.

Panthers starting QB Eli Holstein, who ranks ninth in the ACC in QB rating (141.25) with 17 TDs-6 INTs and averages 7.6 yards per pass, took a blow to the head that knocked him out of the second half in the loss to Virginia last week. His status is unclear for Saturday. Junior backup QB Nate Yarnell completed 4-of-12 passes for 44 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in his place against Virginia.

Clemson-Pitt projections

FEI: Clemson 35-24 (77.1%)

SP+: Clemson 31-24 (66%)

ESPN FPI: 69.2% Clemson

CFBGraphs: Clemson 31-29 (55.58%)