Replies: 13
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Legend [19950]
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN
Dec 7, 2020, 10:36 AM
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ESPN has terrible editing skills. Since they got rid of all their copy writers and print folks, they mess up everywhere because social media has no time for anything factual or reviewed.
It is 110%
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Orange Blooded [2287]
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Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN
Dec 7, 2020, 10:39 AM
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Interesting that Texas A&M is listed while Florida is not when they have a clear path to the playoff by beating Alabama. I don't think it will happen, but it would seem their odds are better than A&M at this point.
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All-Conference [439]
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Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN
Dec 7, 2020, 11:45 AM
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If Bama beats UF, and ND beats Clemson, A&M is in. They're thinking that both of those things happening is more likely than UF winning.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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yep...but then they're wrong.***
Dec 7, 2020, 2:22 PM
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN
Dec 7, 2020, 10:41 AM
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These numbers will be more relevant after the games of Dec 19.
At this point, other than Clemson vs ND, we have not had enough cross competition between conferences to have any sort of idea how good these teams are.
After Bama plays Florida, a hopefully healthy Clemson plays ND, and we find out of OSU gets their 7 games in, then we will know who is dancing and how they will stack up against the other 3.
Even then OSU with be somewhat of a wild card because their toughest game will have been Indiana.
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Legend [17786]
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thanks for the waste of bandwidth***
Dec 7, 2020, 10:43 AM
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Legend [19950]
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Re: thanks for the waste of bandwidth***
Dec 7, 2020, 10:55 AM
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN
Dec 7, 2020, 10:56 AM
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Well we do have to play three straight playoff type games; against No. 2 Notre Dame and then probably, Ohio State and then Alabama. That DOES reduce our chances of winning.
Let's say that the oddsmakers are giving us a 70% chance of beating ND, a 50% chance against Ohios State and a 30% chance against Alabama. That makes our probability of winning the whole thing equal to 0.7*0.5*0.3 = 0.105 (or 10.5%), So, 11% is not that far off in my opinion and pretty realistic.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Yeah and Bama is likely in regardless of whether or not they
Dec 7, 2020, 11:05 AM
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beat Florida at this point so Bama's basically being given a 55% chance of winning both of their playoff games which is something like 75% in both games.
I can't really think of a realistic scenario where Bama gets left out at 10-1.
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Orange Blooded [2922]
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Yes...we play three ‘top 4’ teams in a row, as would...
Dec 7, 2020, 11:52 AM
[ in reply to Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN ] |
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Notre Dame if they made it. Bama would play # 6 Florida and then two top 4s.
All 3 teams have a tough road. As would Florida if they beat Bama somehow.
Ohio St will play a top 20ish Northwestern team and then two top 4s....not quite as tough obviously.
Texas A&M gets Ole Miss and Tennessee while they wait for things to get sorted out.
Bama looks like the favorite at the moment. But we’ll see.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Bama doesn't need to beat Florida like we need to beat ND
Dec 7, 2020, 1:21 PM
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though. They can almost certainly lose that game and still get into the CFP which is part of the reason their odds are so much higher than everyone else's. That and the fact that they've been flat out better than everyone else of course.
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Legend [15749]
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Pff. Clemson made the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs.
Dec 7, 2020, 1:25 PM
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Never tell us the odds.
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Asst Coach [725]
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Re: Clemson has an 11% chance to win CFP title according to ESPN
Dec 7, 2020, 1:38 PM
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Well if you look at it realistically, it might be pretty accurate. Clemson would need to defeat the #2 team,. then possibly the #3 team in the Rose bowl and then the #1 team in the national championship game. That would be unheard of.
If anyone can do it, it's Clemson. It all begins on Charlotte, NC against Notre Dame and then a show and tell appearance in California against Ohio St? Then back across the states and down to Miami for a familiar foe in Alabama. That's a tall task for any team and likely the reasoning behind the low percentage. Though I am just spot balling here. They could just think Clemson sucks. Either way, the Tigers are in championship mode and that means it's heartbreaking season. Go Tigers!!
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