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Replies: 27
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Paw Warrior [5088]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Our portfolio's lost 3 percent of its value since Trump.
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Apr 14, 2025, 7:28 AM
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I figured if I'm gonna find something to complain about with Trump, I may as well put my money where my mouth is and check my portfolio.
I don't know much about the stock market, but I think a 3-percent loss is survivable. Anyone who lived thru 2008 can attest that it could be a lot worse.
Or maybe:
A) It is as bad as MSNBC says it is ... but it's just that our (my wife and me) portfolio is impervious to the "economic nuclear winter" Trump has ushered in?
B) It just hasn't hit yet and we're all gonna die?
C) It's just that the mainstream/legacy media cannot be trusted to report on much of anything with any balance or thoughtfulness?
I'm going with C.
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Ring of Honor [21867]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 17225
Joined: 1998
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D) It aint ove. Could drown or just tread water***
Apr 14, 2025, 7:53 AM
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All-Pro [770]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Or
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Apr 14, 2025, 7:57 AM
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Maybe the sky is falling, or the oceans are rising, or polar bears are dying. It's got to be something.
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Ring of Honor [23996]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2024
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Re: Or
Apr 14, 2025, 8:16 AM
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It usually is overdramatized by the media, but this could be different, because it's not just the media with heavy warning. My gut is that things will be solid in a couple of years and Trump isn't going to do much of what he says. If he follows through with all of his bluster, we are in trouble within a year, or just not progressing. There aren't many people that think things will be firing on all cylinders if we stay on track.
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Ring of Honor [21867]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 17225
Joined: 1998
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No Plan __ No Telling.***
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Apr 14, 2025, 8:19 AM
[ in reply to Or ] |
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Paw Warrior [5088]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Paw Warrior [4935]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Our portfolio's lost 3 percent of its value since Trump.
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Apr 14, 2025, 8:04 AM
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I’m down 8% and not the least bit concerned. I think you’re ok at 3%.
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Ultimate Tiger [36202]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 1999
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^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
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Apr 14, 2025, 9:12 AM
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Paw Warrior [4935]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
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Apr 14, 2025, 10:09 AM
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Nope. Just a 4 decade investor. You go ahead and panic and claim the sky is falling.
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Ring of Honor [23996]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
Apr 14, 2025, 10:19 AM
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Yeah, some people may have to put off retirement for however many years depending on what happens. Maybe they have to wait on buying a first house etc. It's not just nothing though.
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Ring of Honor [21555]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
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Apr 14, 2025, 10:24 AM
[ in reply to Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell*** ] |
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The past tells you where we've been. Not where we're going.
Any line keeps going up and up...in a straight-line extrapolation. But history has also been a three-steps-forward-two-steps-back sort of deal.
There's a lot of things lining up around the world that indicate those two steps back are coming, and they're going to be big steps. I'm not sure many institutions in the world, government or private, survive in their present form.
I am not someone prone to panic. But I don't look away at stuff I don't like, either, and there's a lot of stuff out there I definitely do not like right now. And very few of them have much to do with politics...though politics can certainly make crisis better or worse.
We're entering a time when we're going to need good leadership. And R or D, we haven't had that in a good long time.
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Paw Warrior [4935]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
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Apr 14, 2025, 10:34 AM
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I understand what you’re saying. I honestly do. All I’m saying is in my 4 decades investing I’ve been through times when people were saying “this is different”, “we won’t recover from thus”, etc. Each time I stayed the course and bought more stocks. Every single time I profited from it. Is this truly different? I don’t know. Maybe? Is history no longer a teacher with current obstacles? Maybe?? Regardless, I’m staying the course. If people want to pull out of the market and lock in losses it’s their call and freedom to do so.
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Ring of Honor [21555]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
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Apr 14, 2025, 11:10 AM
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Even if you don't buy into the climate crisis - and I absolutely do, and I know enough of the science that it scares the bejesus outta me - there's a ton of other stuff building.
There's two things in particular coming to a head - first and probably foremost: there's a demographic crisis sweeping across the industrialized and even developing world. Folks who are concerned about the border crisis, for instance, haven't much noticed that the immigrants now coming across the border are no longer Mexican, they're from the Triangle - El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras. Mexico no longer has the surplus young people to be sending them across the border to hope for the best. In 10-15 years the Triangle won't either...and the flood will turn into a trickle and then stop altogether. That's just simple math.
The human race collectively figured out way too late for a whole lot of countries - China foremost among them, but also including South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, and several Eastern European countries - that as people moved to cities they started having far fewer kids...and that was a big deal. But kids are expensive and women in cities work and don't have enough kids to maintain the population. Fortunately the US is in better shape - we actually had a huge boom in the "Baby Boomer" generation, Europe had bombed itself back to the Stone Age and was rebuilding and so didn't - and we're going to get to learn from the bad examples of most of the rest of the first and second worlds. We're going to have to incentivize women in both rural and urban areas to have more children...and frankly, as Europe falls apart, we're going to be getting a flood of young people from Europe looking for a future, which will also help.
The other problem is that the US-built "Bretton Woods System" - globalization - is falling apart. The US can't afford it and we have no incentive to continue to enforce it. With Trump or without, the US was pulling back from its old alliances and many of its old trading partners...though we can't make do without Canada, Mexico, Australia/New Zealand, Japan and Taiwan. America in 1950 could build everything we needed in country. Tech and the supply chain is so vastly more complex these days no one country, not even us, is remotely capable of building it all. We need metals, crude, and timber from Canada, we need cheap productive labor and the short supply lines Mexico gives us, we need Australia's lithium and cobalt and other raw materials it's both dirty and expensive to produce here because we don't have a big empty desert like Australia does - and we need Japan and Taiwan's tech sectors. And frankly I'm rooting for the Cantonese triad of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Macao to make it as China collapses because they will help a lot. BYD's electric cars would be a massive boon - I mean, $10K electric cars that you just plug up and drive away in five minutes, really? Be an awesome deal and would shake up the whole industry if the CCP wasn't benefitting from it...but those factories are in the Cantonese region and could well outlast the CCP. Places like India and Vietnam are going to lead the world in stuff like jeans, T-shirts, and underwear...and they're welcome to it. Those are not good jobs, and those are not good value-added industries. At some point in the not-so-distant future that stuff will pour out of automated factories anywhere in the US or our trading sphere.
So we're headed for a major re-alignment. And those are always turbulent and never comfortable.
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Paw Warrior [4935]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell***
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Apr 14, 2025, 11:46 AM
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You make very reasonable points. Not much I can do about the global problems. I’m 60 now and with each passing year I tend to worry less and less about things out of my immediate control. Head in sand? Maybe but that’s not entirely a bad thing.
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Paw Warrior [5088]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I realize this is the politics bored.
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Apr 14, 2025, 10:57 AM
[ in reply to ^^^^^^The Trump cult in a nutshell*** ] |
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But do you have to go all MSNBC all at once? Try easing into it. Maybe start with "Hmmm..I don't agree with you there. But it's an interesting point you make" before going nuclear option.
Which is to say, write something that suggests you've done some good thinking before writing.
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Ultimate Tiger [36202]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 1999
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That's a very reasonable perspective.***
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Apr 14, 2025, 12:12 PM
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National Champion [7592]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Paw Warrior [4772]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Our portfolio's lost 3 percent of its value since Trump.
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Apr 14, 2025, 9:25 AM
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Futures up today. If market (dow) rebounds close to high 44 I may move out and see what happens after 90 no tariff talks.
3% ain't bad console what we've saw past 8+ days.
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Ring of Honor [21555]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2002
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Re: Our portfolio's lost 3 percent of its value since Trump.
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Apr 14, 2025, 9:49 AM
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Or you're just plain lucky.
The Dow peaked at 45,014 on December 4th, 2024...and then started getting really wobbly as Trump Uncertainty arrived in the market. It fluctuated around for awhile, briefly recovering to within a hair of that on February 5th of this year as Trump deferred tariffs on Mexico and Canada...and then began a steady drop that turned into a plunge when Donny the Tariff Man started seemingly throwing random darts at a map. At one point a few days back it was all the way down to 36,611...which, incidentally, is 19% down, not 3%. It's jumped around the last couple days and closed at 40,212 on Friday...which is better but still 11% down.
This week is where the rubber hits the road. If Donald stabilizes his constant disruptions and shows a coherent policy, we could see it start to recover. If it starts going the other way, well...cue that line from Speed where one guy goes: "Is there anything that can keep this elevator from falling?". To which Keanu Reaves answered: "Yeah...the basement."
I'll leave it to you to decide what's more likely.
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Associate AD [1075]
TigerPulse: 78%
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Re: Our portfolio's lost 3 percent of its value since Trump.
Apr 14, 2025, 10:59 AM
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He was entertained by watching the markets respond to his syphilitic whims. Some long-term damage is already done to the bond market. No rational person now believes the US is as safe a place to park money as it was a few months ago. Have to wait and see what the dollar does. It was near Clinton-era highs during most of Biden's term, but has dropped more than 8% so far with Trump.
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CU Medallion [20775]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2012
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Re: Our portfolio's lost 3 percent of its value since Trump.
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Apr 14, 2025, 10:46 AM
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D. Had the MSM (WSJ, CNBC) kept their mouth shut - we’d be especially phucked. But they didn’t stay quiet and Trump blinked.
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Paw Warrior [5088]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Tell me more about the U.S. being a "safer place to park money"
Apr 14, 2025, 11:04 AM
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pre-Trump. What's changed now?
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Game Changer [1880]
TigerPulse: 96%
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Trump offers the opposite of stability.
Apr 14, 2025, 12:35 PM
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Each day he is liable to come up with a completely different policy that can affect the economy in a positive or negative way. People have no confidence that what they are buying today will be worth the same, more, or less tomorrow. The US used to offer stability. Trump put an end to that.
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Clemson Sports Icon [52405]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 1999
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+516.12 @ 10:56AM.....Thanks Clemson Softball!***
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Apr 14, 2025, 10:56 AM
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Orange Elite [5410]
TigerPulse: 44%
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Your portfolio only being down 3% seems unbelievable
Apr 14, 2025, 11:32 AM
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Unless your portfolio is just heavily invested in bonds.
If that’s the case you missed out on significant earnings the past few years.
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Paw Warrior [4935]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Your portfolio only being down 3% seems unbelievable
Apr 14, 2025, 12:37 PM
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Yeah he’s very conservative in his investments.
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Associate AD [1075]
TigerPulse: 78%
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Re: Your portfolio only being down 3% seems unbelievable
Apr 14, 2025, 4:42 PM
[ in reply to Your portfolio only being down 3% seems unbelievable ] |
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My 401k is the old-fashioned 60/40 mix of bond and equity mutual funds for my age and it's down around 2.9%. Outside the employer plan, I was down about 14% before today.
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Legend [6772]
TigerPulse: 89%
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Luckily I had decided to move a good bit of
Apr 14, 2025, 3:32 PM
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savings into non-correlated vehicles. I did that when the DOW was at 43221 and S&P just under 6000. I was overdue for that move anyway and just got lucky, or at least didn't get unlucky, because I was not in detailed control over when the sales happened. These days, picking the wrong day can make a large difference!
I couldn't tell you what my overall portfolio has done recently but I do have several large chunks not subject to market swings and getting decent returns. I need to pull it all back together...
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