Replies: 25
| visibility 1
|
110%er [9149]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5313
Joined: 9/3/03
|
Helpful Graph about the virus
Mar 13, 2020, 8:31 AM
|
|
|
All day yesterday I was one of those that was thinking that the sports leadership were going way overboard in canceling everything. Then I did some research on my own, found this chart (among other things), and realized that as much as it sucks, this is probably the best course of action.
The virus itself really isn't that bad for the majority of people. It's symptoms are much like the common flu. But the big difference is that it is much more contagious and exists in the environment much longer, thereby greatly increasing the chance of infecting more people more quickly. The infection itself isn't so much the problem - it's the ability of the health care community to keep up with all of these infections, and that's where this graph is insightful.
Very simply, if we do nothing, the cases will spread and spike dramatically and there's a very real risk of overwhelming the medical community. If we can slow the spread, the same number of people may get infected, but over a longer period of time, thereby lowering the burden on the health care system. In doing that, they are more likely to be freed up to deal with those who are most threatened by the virus, which would be the elderly and/or those with other health conditions.
We still have YouTube and the ESPN app, so we can get our sports fix by watching games we haven't seen yet, or haven't in a while, or love seeing over and over, like the 2016 & 2018 Nattys!
|
|
|
|
110%er [9149]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5313
Joined: 9/3/03
|
Looks like the attachment didn't work - 2nd try
Mar 13, 2020, 8:32 AM
|
|
|
Maybe it had a virus
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [64693]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 89031
Joined: 3/27/01
|
Are you sure that's not an STD graph?***
Mar 13, 2020, 8:36 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scout Team [187]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 133
Joined: 1/4/14
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2807]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 1194
Joined: 8/31/08
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [27366]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 26233
Joined: 9/19/11
|
|
|
|
|
Commissioner [970]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2416
Joined: 4/2/10
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [44121]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 33018
Joined: 2/22/03
|
Thank you for posting this. Same here.
Mar 13, 2020, 8:35 AM
|
|
While many individuals are absolutely overreacting with fear and panic, social distancing at this point does make sense.
We also need to close our borders for the time being.
|
|
|
|
|
All-Conference [421]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 770
Joined: 7/6/05
|
I'm no Graphologist,
Mar 13, 2020, 8:53 AM
|
|
but that graph makes it appear to subside much quicker if we do nothing.
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [9149]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5313
Joined: 9/3/03
|
Re: I'm no Graphologist,
Mar 13, 2020, 9:04 AM
|
|
It does, but what it's illustrating is the demand on the health care system. If it were to spike like that, the system would be overwhelmed and many of those who need treatment the most urgently might not able to get it, increasing the the mortality rate. If we let it drag out, people are more likely to be able to get the treatment they need, which would lower the mortality rate down to levels closer to the common flu. Odds are, from what I've read & heard, the same number of people may get infected either way, but by minimizing exposure at the outset, we can make the treatment of it more reasonable and effective without overwhelming the health care system and leaving those who most need help without the ability to get assistance.
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10352]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 12807
Joined: 11/22/03
|
Re: I'm no Graphologist,
Mar 13, 2020, 11:02 AM
|
|
Here is my question. If the virus is new and has a lot of unknowns then how do they know it will overwhelm our health care system?
|
|
|
|
|
Varsity [224]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 184
Joined: 6/21/13
|
Re: I'm no Graphologist,
Mar 13, 2020, 12:22 PM
|
|
Here is my question. If the virus is new and has a lot of unknowns then how do they know it will overwhelm our health care system?
We don't, but he's not saying 'this is what WILL happen' (hence 2 curves), but rather 'this is why we don't want to allow the spike to happen'.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [25116]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 32379
Joined: 2/15/09
|
it has done so in Italy. A country with a strong medical track record
Mar 13, 2020, 6:02 PM
[ in reply to Re: I'm no Graphologist, ] |
|
And in Italy’s most prosperous region to
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [25116]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 32379
Joined: 2/15/09
|
it has done so in Italy. A country with a strong medical track record
Mar 13, 2020, 6:02 PM
[ in reply to Re: I'm no Graphologist, ] |
|
And in Italy’s most prosperous region to
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [22385]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7604
Joined: 3/3/99
|
That's true, but the point is when the number of cases rise
Mar 13, 2020, 9:04 AM
[ in reply to I'm no Graphologist, ] |
|
above the dotted line, the medical community (hospitals, clinics, doctors, nurses, necessary equipment, etc) is completely overwhelmed. Then you get what we're seeing in Italy.
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2400]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2411
Joined: 1/23/00
|
Re: I'm no Graphologist,
Mar 13, 2020, 9:55 AM
[ in reply to I'm no Graphologist, ] |
|
Yes. It seems to be a sloppy graph.
I would expect that if we take action, duration as well as peak cases would go down. The only alternative theory that would explain those graphs is that if we do nothing, the virus subsides quicker because more people (hoats) die, and I doubt that is their point.
That being said, I agree with the OP's point. We run the risk of over taxing our health care system.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [40970]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 42973
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Not only longer, but more overall cases.
Mar 13, 2020, 10:17 AM
|
|
The area under the curve would be the number of cases. The blue area appears larger than the red area.
|
|
|
|
|
Varsity [224]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 184
Joined: 6/21/13
|
Re: I'm no Graphologist,
Mar 13, 2020, 12:20 PM
[ in reply to I'm no Graphologist, ] |
|
but that graph makes it appear to subside much quicker if we do nothing.
True... only because most of those people would be dead.
Before reading the article that goes with that graph, it never occurred to me that people with the coronavirus need respirators until they can recover, and there are only so many respirators in the United States. Seems obvious in hindsight, but if too many people get sick too quickly, somebody is not getting a respirator.
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [21645]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 23437
Joined: 8/16/03
|
That's right. It's not about containment any more.
Mar 13, 2020, 9:46 AM
|
|
It's already endemic. There is no stopping it. Now the strategy is to slow it down so that the medical establishment can avoid being badly overrun.
Good news is that it is apparently no threat to young people. The only reason for the elevated mortality rate overall is the very high rate for the elderly and those with pulmonary problems like COPD.
Bad news is it very well may have triggered the next Great Depression. We were already in a massive bubble. We already were in an insane amount of debt. We already relied on a rigged global monetary/banking system to keep deficits going. Our money is essentially backed by OPEC requiring everyone to use dollars. Russia may have stockpiled enough energy reserves and gold to finally blow that up.
The stock market isn't crashing just because of the virus. We were on a house of cards foundation already. And the virus, plus Russia initiating a collapse of oil prices, plus the US relying on the petrodollar, plus our horrifically irresponsible deficit spending/debt = Good night. Hope ya'll have been setting some aside.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [17631]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11054
Joined: 10/13/08
|
Are you a financial professional?
Mar 13, 2020, 5:57 PM
|
|
Or did you just stay in a Holiday Inn last night?
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3396]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3045
Joined: 10/22/07
|
100%, this.
Mar 13, 2020, 9:49 AM
|
|
This is now nearly three weeks old, but is also a good read. While I understand this reaction feels over the top for many people, it's not unprecedented... we're following protocols that were put in place in prior outbreaks to reduce deaths, even going way back to the influenza epidemic of 1918 here in the US.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [4903]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 5280
Joined: 8/24/11
|
Excellent read and explanation
Mar 13, 2020, 10:15 AM
|
|
I had been in the "this is so stupid" camp but the more I educate myself the more I see that this thing is more contagious with a higher death rate and our hospitals will be overrun and more people will die if we don't slow it down.
It's easy to be blasé when you're young and healthy but I hope you will think about your relatives that are not. I have severe chronic asthma that caused COPD (never smoked) and in my late 50's. I am being very careful and appreciate the rest of people that are. If I get it and get really sick I hope the hospital will have the tools and people to treat me. I plan on living a lot longer and going to a lot more Clemson games!!
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [32743]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 14932
Joined: 6/29/11
|
^ ^ ^ ^ THIS right here - this is about COMMUNITY
Mar 13, 2020, 10:21 AM
|
|
I have been in the "this is so stupid" as well - for this whole thing . . . .
But I am young (in my head & heart) and healthy - no underlying factors that increase my risk.
BUT - do I want to be a cause of this thing getting to people that won't be able to handle it well ?
And truly - it hasn't caused an interruption to the way I basically live - at all.
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2400]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 2411
Joined: 1/23/00
|
Re: ^ ^ ^ ^ THIS right here - this is about COMMUNITY
Mar 13, 2020, 10:59 AM
|
|
True dat.
I am very healthy. I doubt I will be a victim, but I sure could be a vector. We don't want that.
It is only a month or so of disruption. Hopefully the knuckleheads out there can stop criticizing and pontificating and just live with a temporary inconvenience.
Having said that, I am still planning on a business trip to Texas next week. ??
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [16614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 11661
Joined: 9/1/01
|
I may have to change to full games vs condensed games!***
Mar 13, 2020, 10:21 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [11001]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 12766
Joined: 9/28/10
|
Re: Helpful Graph about the virus
Mar 13, 2020, 6:30 PM
|
|
Yep. Heart attacks, strokes, car accidents etc. aren't taking a break because of this virus. Keeping ers's/hospitals from being overwhelmed a good thing.
|
|
|
|
Replies: 25
| visibility 1
|
|
|