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Replies: 32
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Rival Killer [2682]
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So, here's the shape of the economy that Trump is inheriting from the Biden era.
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:40 PM
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First, let's remember that the pandemic has receded from the US since early 2022. The first year of the Biden administration was dealing with a healthcare disaster unlike anything in our lifetime. And that disaster also caused supply-chain disruptions that spiked global inflation, among other things, at the same time while millions were dying from the virus. So, given what Biden inherited, how have things bounced back since then?
Where are we with inflation now? Well, Inflation that came from supply chain causes is now almost down to the FED target of 2%, in the 2.5% range, and this was accomplished without boosting unemployment (yet another reason we know it was a supply-chain shock and not demand driven). Behold the hyperinflation (not):
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct#--:mct-inflation:trend-inflation
https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/underlying-inflation-dashboard
Biden inherited unemployment over 6%. Where are we now? Unemployment is a whopping 4.1%. OMG, we're all gonna die:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
Prime age employment rate - ages 25-54 - is at its highest levels since around 2001. People in their prime working years are more likely to be employed than at any time during the last 23 years:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
We’re producing more oil and gas than any country ever has. Biden has lost the imaginary war on oil:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
Average Wages have recovered and have now eclipsed the inflation since pre-pandemic, and this has especially been the case for lower-level earners:
https://x.com/arindube/status/1839369190911906280
GDP growth has completely recovered from the pandemic and is above the rest of the developed world:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/american-outperformance-in-the-global-economy/#:~:text=Real%20GDP%20in%20the%20second,Italy%20(3.3%25)
Our uninsured rate hit historic low levels in 2023, and remains lower than pre-pandemic averages, at around 7-8%. Some of this was related Biden's strengthening of the ACA Exchange premium tax credits:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/Quarterly_Estimates_2024_Q12.pdf
Given all the above, Trump is inheriting a very strong economy, just like he did in 2017, when he inherited an economy that had already recovered from the 2008 financial crash.
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All-In [10811]
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Re: So, here's the shape of the economy that Trump is inheriting from the Biden era.
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:41 PM
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trumps economy so great joe couldnt kill it
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Rival Killer [2682]
TigerPulse: 93%
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Biden inherited a catastrophe.****
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:42 PM
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Commissioner [1211]
TigerPulse: 86%
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Hey show a little respect for Barry..
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:52 PM
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Our first Muslim President and first to be born in Sudan, 1st US President to be married to a transvestite and 1st to nominate a pederast as his VP and 12 years later had to throw the sick wax work figure out of office. Hehe how you like it..TRUMP MAGA FOREVER
BWwahahaha!
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Gridiron Giant [15633]
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Re: Biden inherited a catastrophe.****
Nov 11, 2024, 10:07 PM
[ in reply to Biden inherited a catastrophe.**** ] |
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Trump was given a last year disaster, just ask the owner, Fauci.
And let us all not forget that today's 2.5% inflation is being added to the already ~30% higher prices. So you think that by adding less to the damage is a good thing?
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CU Medallion [19526]
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Here are a couple of reasonable statements .,.
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Nov 10, 2024, 8:07 PM
[ in reply to Re: So, here's the shape of the economy that Trump is inheriting from the Biden era. ] |
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Trump’s economy was good before the pandemic with modest GDP growth, solid stock market and no reduction in deficits. The unemployment triggered by the pandemic was not attributable to Trump.
Biden inherited a pandemic economy with disrupted supply chains and high unemployment. The pandemic economic recovery was successful less high inflation which was partially attributable to a) Fed policy, b) excessive stimulus in the $1.9 T Democratic recovery act, c) disrupted supply chains and d) Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US economy recovered without a recession. There is a solid glide path heading into 2025 looking at GDP, unemployment, wage growth, current inflation rates and stock market performance. Deficit spending continued under Biden and long term inflation impacts linger especially in housing and food.
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Top TigerNet [28531]
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^^^^^^^^^^^^
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Nov 11, 2024, 8:45 AM
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Serious post. OP was a non serious post.
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Rival Killer [2682]
TigerPulse: 93%
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So, I agree with a good bit of this....
Nov 11, 2024, 5:38 PM
[ in reply to Here are a couple of reasonable statements .,. ] |
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But I think more needs to be talked about on what caused the inflation. It was mostly supply-shocks from the pandemic (yes, the war in Ukraine had an impact, too). Biden & Trump's spending were bit players in this drama.
The inflation it was transitory. We know this because there was a retreat of inflation without any recession or surge in unemployment. It was a soft landing. The only thing that's consistent with that is the supply chains. They kinked up during the pandemic and caused a surge in prices. Then they unkinked after the pandemic ended, and price growth slowed down. If this had been a run-of-the-mill demand-driven inflation, then the FED's policy of raising rates would have induced a big spike in unemployment and a recession, neither of which happened. So because of this, we know Biden's spending was a bit player (same with the huge stimulus Trump signed in 2020).
Housing prices have remained high. This has helped the balance sheets of millions who own houses. But if you're a first-time buyer, not so good, although it varies alot by geographical area.
Also, yes, we've had continued deficit spending. A few things to keep in mind. The debt/gdp surged to above 100% during 2020, and then came down to the mid 90's, as the economy recovered during the Biden years. Deficits surged in 2020, and then came back closer to normal levels afterwards. We're not in any sort of debt spiral.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
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Top TigerNet [28452]
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Biden had to deal with Covid in 2021 and 2022 ?
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:54 PM
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I guess 2020 was a cake walk for Trump.
Revisionist history.
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Dynasty Maker [3160]
TigerPulse: 98%
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remember, everything is going to remain horrible til February 1, 2025.
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:54 PM
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because he only needs 7 days to fix this mess.
After Feb 1, y'all will suddenly find yourself staring out the window with those dumb, gap-tooth grins whilst pissing rainbows, wondering whether or not your farts can somehow be harnessed to run that kick-ass diesel engine in the driveway.
Then you can go on about your business of watering the crops with gatorade.
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110%er [4058]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: remember, everything is going to remain horrible til February 1, 2025.
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Nov 10, 2024, 7:56 PM
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Something wrong with diesel engines and crops?
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Dynasty Maker [3160]
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Gridiron Giant [15762]
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Commissioner [1211]
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Yeah tranny tantrum..no doubt about it..
Nov 10, 2024, 10:47 PM
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Just hope someone was there to RING it's #### jaws..and hopefully shattered permanently
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Ring of Honor [21278]
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Ultimate Tiger [36200]
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you musta missed the latest jobs report***
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Nov 10, 2024, 8:01 PM
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Heisman Winner [86218]
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I can never tell when we should believe those***
Nov 11, 2024, 9:50 AM
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TigerNet Immortal [165723]
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Lies, dammm lies, and statistics
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Nov 10, 2024, 8:35 PM
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Here’s a chart that’s a little more intellectually honest than how you’re trying to spin wage growth.
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Clemson Icon [25327]
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Re: Lies, dammm lies, and statistics
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Nov 11, 2024, 8:36 AM
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Losing an election in three easy steps:
- dump Whatever Many Trillion into the money supply
- devalue the curency by 30%+
- brag about wage increase.
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Team Captain [454]
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TigerNet Immortal [165723]
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Yes, and they still trail CPI increases.
Nov 11, 2024, 3:52 PM
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So there’s no actual net growth at all.
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Ultimate Tiger [33568]
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Real wages are wages adjusted for inflation...
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Nov 11, 2024, 4:45 PM
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one of the graphs shown in this thread is either incorrect and/or the time phasing isn't correct.
Or could be the math median vs average and hourly vs weekly...the normal measure referenced for this is the median usual weekly real earnings.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
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TigerNet Immortal [165723]
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I understand. Im just saying that whether you start from
Nov 11, 2024, 9:43 PM
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Nov 20 or Jan 21, (appropriate dates, IMHO for a “what is Trump inheriting from Biden” discussion), wage growth still trails inflation over either start date to current.
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Rival Killer [2682]
TigerPulse: 93%
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Real-wages have increased since before the pandemic....
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Nov 11, 2024, 5:08 PM
[ in reply to Yes, and they still trail CPI increases. ] |
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Yes, there was a burst of inflation. But that has subsided and wage gains have surpassed it.
Your chart cherry-picked a late 2020 start date, when average 2020 wages were screwed up by compositional effects. The right starting point is just before the pandemic, because it captures starting and ending data points that aren't impacted by a huge spike in unemployment among lower wage workers.
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TigerNet Immortal [165723]
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Its from an election month/year.
Nov 11, 2024, 9:34 PM
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The very same event you were using for your comparison. It’s from a non-partisan group using BLS data.
Cherry-picking is singling out 25-54 year olds for employment statistics.
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Rival Killer [2682]
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No, 25-54 is the prime age range for employment....
Nov 12, 2024, 3:41 PM
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Before 25, people are either kids, or often in college.
After 54, people start to move toward retirement mode and slowing down.
It's standard economics to use 25-54. You have no idea what you're talking about (as usual).
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Heisman Winner [86218]
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Rival Killer [2954]
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Re: So, here's the shape of the economy that Trump is inheriting from the Biden era.
Nov 10, 2024, 9:10 PM
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Dude. Just stop
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Valley Legend [12227]
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Youre better than this.
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Nov 10, 2024, 9:20 PM
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Don’t post only one side.
For example, unemployment is low, but it’s also on the rise. It’s increased from 3.4 to 4.1%. Look at the full data, don’t post snips that suit your point of view.
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Clemson Icon [27497]
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I wish you would change your avatar...
Nov 11, 2024, 2:45 PM
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...giving us a bad look.
And I'm not one to really jump into the ad hominem attacks, but your positions are so consistently boot licking in nature I can't even start to dissect. It's not worth the debate.
I was out at..."Inflation that came from supply chain issues" lol - this is attributable to you being one of the only people I've ever seen who defends the Fed (who isn't a banker)
....wait.....are you a banker? M Train?
Employment numbers are heavily skewed to non-US Born citizens. I've posted about this numerous times. Additionally, the employment numbers have been revised down nearly every release in the past 4 - 5 quarters.
Also one of Tiggity's favorite points about workforce eligibility or whatever. These stats fall flat on their face.
Look at GDP Growth relative to Debt Growth. We're getting negative returns on tax dollars to fuel growth by astonishing margins. pretty sure I've posted about this in the past as well.
Hats off to low uninsured people. I'll give you that.
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Rival Killer [2682]
TigerPulse: 93%
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I'll ignore your first few comments...
Nov 11, 2024, 5:23 PM
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Other than to say that I'm sorry you dislike me.
Employment numbers are heavily skewed to non-US Born citizens. I've posted about this numerous times. Additionally, the employment numbers have been revised down nearly every release in the past 4 - 5 quarters.
Unemployment rate for natural born US citizens is at 3.9%. That's very low.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04073413
We have a tight labor market, and Americans (not just immigrants) are employed. Yes, we've used immigrant labor to drive up employment. But that's only because Americans are aging, and more are retiring. As for Americans in their prime age, they are as likely to be working or even moreso than at any time since around 2001.
Look at GDP Growth relative to Debt Growth. We're getting negative returns on tax dollars to fuel growth by astonishing margins. pretty sure I've posted about this in the past as well.
Debt to GDP is at about 95 to 96%. I'd like it lower myself. But it's not at any sort of emergency level.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ188S
Both parties realized during the pandemic that we had to inject stimulus into the economy to keep us from getting into a long, drawn-out depression. Our fiscal & monetary policy was strongly pro-employment and pro-growth. This continued into the Biden administration. It's textbook keynesian economics, and it worked.
Tiggity is a nice guy, and I give him credit for not being beholden to MAGA. But I think his views on economics are too libertarian, and aren't workable.
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Orange Beast [6215]
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Re: So, here's the shape of the economy that Trump is inheriting from the Biden era.
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Nov 11, 2024, 4:59 PM
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Does anyone on the left understand that if current inflation is 2% (or whatever) this figure is meaningless with respect to the damage already done by double-digit price increases driven by recent inflation?
I believe that at least 50,000,000 people have no clue about this because all the MSM talks about is 'current inflation' and sheep are sheep.
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Orange Phenom [14408]
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Re: So, here's the shape of the economy that Trump is inheriting from the Biden era.
Nov 11, 2024, 5:22 PM
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Some of us do understand that it’s cumulative.
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Replies: 32
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