Trends: What history might say about Clemson’s 2024 recruiting class

Sammy Brown looks to lead a 2024 class that makes a big impact at Clemson.

by Ryan Kantor - Contributor - Fri Dec 22 07:00:05 GMT-05:00 2023

Every December, like a Christmas gift, Clemson brings in a recruiting class of about 20 talented high school football players to become Clemson Tigers. We celebrate their arrival and expect big things for their and the program’s future. Like Christmas, it is a time of optimism and hope for the future.

Given all the fanfare around the signing day, I wanted to take a historical look at past Clemson classes and gauge their outcomes. How have those outcomes rippled their way to on-field success, and what are realistic expectations for the newly signed 2024 class?

Below is a breakdown of seven past Clemson recruiting classes. In dark orange at the bottom are “Super Hits.” These are players who played at an excellent level for multiple seasons at Clemson. Some examples include Mackensie Alexander, Mitch Hyatt, Trevor Lawrence, and Tyler Davis. Next, in faded orange are “Hits.” These are guys who were major contributors for a year (e.g., Cornell Powell) or had multiple years of smaller contributions (e.g., Ryan Carter). Finally, in gray, are “Misses.” These players didn’t work out at Clemson. Some transferred and succeeded at other schools (e.g., Joseph Charleston), others battled injuries, had discipline issues, or simply didn’t develop into contributors.

What do you think?

Definitions:
Super Hit: Elite level for 2+ years
Hit: Major contributor for a year or several years of smaller contributions
Miss: Never contributed in a meaningful way due to injury, transfer, ineffectiveness, dismissal, etc. pic.twitter.com/tGbGB4onAu
— Ryan Kantor (@ryan_kantor) December 21, 2023

Two things immediately jump out. The 2013 and 2015 classes were outstanding, and the 2019 class had a lot of misses. We saw how the great 2013 class contributed to the 2016 National Championship as then-seniors Ben Boulware, Mike Williams, and Wayne Gallman made a huge impact. Likewise, the 2015 class came through in a big way in the 2018 National Championship as then-seniors Mitch Hyatt, Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell, and Austin Bryant played a tremendous role in a tremendous 15-0 season. Of course, the same holds true for the 2019 class, only in reverse. When we jump from 2019 to 2022, there are only two stars (Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro) and just a few significant contributors from the 2019 class.

Here's the same data in percentage form which is easier to digest.

If you're hitting on 60% of your high school recruits, that's pretty good. pic.twitter.com/sSRYjpN6TP
— Ryan Kantor (@ryan_kantor) December 21, 2023

Reviewing the percentages, we see that hitting on about 60% of incoming recruits is actually very good. When Clemson has done that, it has led to championships when those players were veterans.

It is still too early to make declarations about how players from the 2020 – 2023 classes worked out, but we can already see it trending back up from that down 2019 class. 2020 was a little better, but the class’s headliners (DJ Uiagalelei, Bryan Bresee, Trenton Simpson, Myles Murphy, and Demarkcus Bowman) never reached the level of stardom we expected. 2021 is where the curve starts to bend upward.

The 2021 and 2022 classes gave us Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Nate Wiggins, who already made their stamp and are headed to the NFL as well as Will Shipley, Phil Mafah, Barrett Carter, Cade Klubnik, Blake Miller, and Kylon Griffin. 2023 could top both of those classes as two of the biggest prospects from the class TJ Parker and Peter Woods had huge freshmen seasons while under-the-radar 3-star prospects Shelton Lewis, Khalil Barnes, Avieon Terrell, and Tyler Brown are already contributing at an extremely high-level. In a couple of years, the 2023 class could look an awful lot like the 2013 and 2015 classes that were pivotal to Clemson’s National Championships.

As for 2024, time will tell. Historically, if 60% of them become contributors, it will be a great class. With elite top-150 talents like Sammy Brown, Bryant Wesco, TJ Moore, Christian Betancur, and Darien Mayo, I like those odds.