Clemson-Texas Playoff game projections |
Some Tigers are billing Clemson's postseason run as "Us Against the World," and that world also includes the data for the 13 games so far for the host and 5-seed Texas Longhorns (11-2) and the visiting 12-seed Clemson Tigers (10-3) this Saturday (4 p.m./TNT-MAX).
For the second-straight game and a third this season, all of the projections we track here are picking the opposing side, with the numbers much more similar to the Georgia opener, a 34-3 defeat in Atlanta. In those calls, Georgia was given at least an 82.3% win chance over the four projections. Last time out against SMU, the Mustangs were favored by 2.5 points and had projections ranging from 56.3% (FEI) to 68.9% (CFB-Graphs), before the eventual 34-31 Tigers win. Before we get to the CFP calls, here's how the CFP teams compare in a number of those metrics currently: Clemson-Texas by the numbers (stats pre-bowls) Clemson SP+ ($): Offense rating - 16th; defense - 22nd; special teams - 99th Clemson FPI: Offense rating - 9th; defense - 17th; special teams - 120th Clemson FEI: Offense rating - 12th; defense - 29th; special teams - 88th -- As you will see below, the proposed disparity is not quite as great as in the Georgia opener, but there are projections as high as 80% (ESPN FPI and SP+) and a lone call for a single-digit margin to the Longhorns (28-20 Texas on CFB-Graphs). Clemson is a 12-point underdog currently, and the Tigers seek a first win as a double-digit underdog under Dabo Swinney (0-3 per Covers). From a spread standpoint, the biggest opposing number for a straight-up win for Swinney's program was twin upsets as a 7-point underdog to Virginia Tech in 2011 (Covers). Clemson-Texas projections FEI: Texas by 12.6 SP+: 32-19 Texas (80%) ESPN FPI: 80.4% Texas CFBGraphs: 28-20 Texas (72.5%) Updates through Week 16 (Army/Navy + USA/WMU): 🎄🤶 SP+ BOWL (AND ARMY-NAVY) PICKS 🍾❄️
Texas SP+: Offense rating - 8th; defense - 2nd; special teams - 115th
Texas FPI: Offense rating - 17th; defense - 1st; special teams - 123rd
Texas FEI: Offense rating - 19th; defense - 1st; special teams - 33rd
FEI Ratings: https://t.co/k1neFvMcg9
Weekly FEI: https://t.co/vSWZ8xpzuU
Week 17 (through CFP first round) game projections: https://t.co/9oqIU15Sh8
ND by 7.2
Penn State by 7.6
Texas by 12.6
Ohio State by 13.9
* ND by 4.8, PSU by 5.0, Ohio State by 5.6, Texas by 13.2
* Always ignore the Army-Navy point total projections
* [checks portal again] yeah ... we'll see about some of thesehttps://t.co/X4ZrsS9rXs pic.twitter.com/8uC6YfS4SG
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