Clemson-Texas Playoff game projections

Dabo Swinney says there's a belief in his program, and he's seeking a first win as a head coach in four tries as a double-digit underdog.

Brandon Rink - Assoc. Editor / Staff Writer - Tuesday, December 17 2024

Some Tigers are billing Clemson's postseason run as "Us Against the World," and that world also includes the data for the 13 games so far for the host and 5-seed Texas Longhorns (11-2) and the visiting 12-seed Clemson Tigers (10-3) this Saturday (4 p.m./TNT-MAX).

For the second-straight game and a third this season, all of the projections we track here are picking the opposing side, with the numbers much more similar to the Georgia opener, a 34-3 defeat in Atlanta.

In those calls, Georgia was given at least an 82.3% win chance over the four projections. Last time out against SMU, the Mustangs were favored by 2.5 points and had projections ranging from 56.3% (FEI) to 68.9% (CFB-Graphs), before the eventual 34-31 Tigers win.

Before we get to the CFP calls, here's how the CFP teams compare in a number of those metrics currently:

Clemson-Texas by the numbers (stats pre-bowls)

Clemson SP+ ($): Offense rating - 16th; defense - 22nd; special teams - 99th
Texas SP+: Offense rating - 8th; defense - 2nd; special teams - 115th

Clemson FPI: Offense rating - 9th; defense - 17th; special teams - 120th
Texas FPI: Offense rating - 17th; defense - 1st; special teams - 123rd

Clemson FEI: Offense rating - 12th; defense - 29th; special teams - 88th
Texas FEI: Offense rating - 19th; defense - 1st; special teams - 33rd

As you will see below, the proposed disparity is not quite as great as in the Georgia opener, but there are projections as high as 80% (ESPN FPI, FEI and SP+) and a lone call for a single-digit margin to the Longhorns (28-20 Texas on CFB-Graphs).

Clemson is a 12-point underdog currently, and the Tigers seek a first win as a double-digit underdog under Dabo Swinney (0-3 per Covers). From a spread standpoint, the biggest opposing number for a straight-up win for Swinney's program was twin upsets as a 7-point underdog to Virginia Tech in 2011 (Covers).

Clemson-Texas projections

FEI: Texas 32-20 (80.4%)

SP+: 32-19 Texas (80%)

ESPN FPI: 80.4% Texas

CFBGraphs: 28-20 Texas (72.5%)

Updates through Week 16 (Army/Navy + USA/WMU):
FEI Ratings: https://t.co/k1neFvMcg9
Weekly FEI: https://t.co/vSWZ8xpzuU

Week 17 (through CFP first round) game projections: https://t.co/9oqIU15Sh8

ND by 7.2
Penn State by 7.6
Texas by 12.6
Ohio State by 13.9
— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) December 15, 2024

🎄🤶 SP+ BOWL (AND ARMY-NAVY) PICKS 🍾❄️

* ND by 4.8, PSU by 5.0, Ohio State by 5.6, Texas by 13.2
* Always ignore the Army-Navy point total projections
* [checks portal again] yeah ... we'll see about some of thesehttps://t.co/X4ZrsS9rXs pic.twitter.com/8uC6YfS4SG
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 9, 2024