Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Georgia projections

DJ Uiagalelei could show more of what he can do on the run after being hampered with injury in his two starts last year. (ACC photo)

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Sep 01 09:15:04 GMT-05:00 2021

Clemson and Georgia are fielding quite possibly the most talented rosters each one has ever had going into a top-5 matchup in Charlotte Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC).

247Sports tracks such things with its Team Talent Composite and Georgia is only topped by Alabama in the number of 4-star or higher rated prospects on the roster (66) and by total roster talent (1,001.75 points). Clemson is the highest its been in rating at No. 4 overall behind Ohio State (935.08) with 51 4-star or higher rated prospects.

While Clemson is something of a newcomer to this tier of recruiting, Georgia has been in the top-4 of the ranking each season since 2017 -- including a No. 1 spot last season -- with three division titles, a conference crown and a national championship game appearance (2017) to speak for it. In its most recent national-title seasons, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers ranked ninth (2016) and then sixth (2018).

With that as one baseline for projections, the natural progression is to wonder what the coaching staffs have done recently with that level of talent in these types of matchups.

Over the last two seasons, Georgia went 8-3 against top-25 opponents overall and 6-5 against the spread in those games. Over half of Clemson’s top-25 matchups haven’t come until postseason play in that same span with a 5-3 record overall and a 3-5 mark against the spread. Five of the six combined top-25 losses have come by double-digits (by 20 PPG for Georgia; by 15 PPG for Clemson), with Georgia also suffering a puzzling 20-17 double-overtime home loss to South Carolina in 2019.

Assessing where they’re projected on both sides of the ball in 2021...

Efficiency ranks (preseason): Offense | Defense

CU SP+ ranks ($) (No. 2 overall): 5 | 4

UGA SP+ ranks (No. 5 overall): 16 | 5

Both sides have top-5 defenses by the ESPN SP+ formula, with Georgia bringing back half of its returning production from the SP+ top-rated 2020 defense and Clemson returning 85 percent of the production from the eighth-ranked ‘20 defensive group.

Going back to the talent conversation, maybe what points to Clemson’s recruiting lately the most is a top-5 projected offense despite losing two all-time collegiate greats in Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. The respect is there from Clemson’s reputation as an offense and the kind of playmaking potential this group has.

Facing one team that finished in the top-50 in total or scoring defense (Cincinnati - No. 8 scoring def./13 total def.), Georgia quarterback JT Daniels led a late-season surge when he was named the starter over the last four games in 2020 -- upping the yards per play by over two yards (7.5), total offense by just over 100 yards per game (486) and the scoring by over a touchdown (37.3) than the previous six games.

The former 5-star prospect Daniels gets a second crack at starting throughout a full season after making 11 starts as a true freshman at Southern Cal in 2018, where he ranked ninth in rating among Pac-12 QBs (128.55).

On to the odds and projections...

Odds (via VegasInsider as of 9/1)

Clemson -3; 51-point total over/under.

Metrics outlook

SP+ projection: 57% Clemson (Tigers by 3.3)

ESPN FPI: 69% Clemson (Tigers by 6.5)

FEI: 63.8% Clemson (Tigers by 6.3)

TeamRankings ($): Tigers by 2.9

numberFire: Tigers by 0.9

The metrics are universally picking Clemson to come out on top at the neutral site, with ESPN’s Football Power Index the most bullish on Swinney and co. It’s projecting the Tigers, which would only be an underdog to Alabama on a neutral field currently there (by 0.6), by basically a touchdown (6.5). ESPN’s consensus pick against the spread pick’em tool, however, says to take Georgia to keep it close enough to cover that number.

Clemson’s last season-opener loss came at Georgia in 2014, where the Tigers and Bulldogs were tied at the half and Georgia dominated the fourth quarter to a 45-21 win. Also under Mark Richt, Georgia’s last season-opener loss came against Clemson in 2013, 38-35, with a Tajh Boyd 9-yard TD pass to Stanton Seckinger in the fourth quarter the deciding score. Since that Georgia defeat, Clemson has won its season opener by an average of 33.5 points a game, with road contests at Auburn and Wake Forest in that span. The Bulldogs have averaged a 25-point win over Smart’s tenure in season openers.

With talent oozing out on the field with both sides, the coach who has his team ready for the moment under the Queen City lights will likely come out on top here.

Prediction

Clemson 27, Georgia 23

(SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. FPI is the Football Power Index that has a similar projection-style model from ESPN as well. FEI is a Football Outsiders projection tool that also judges team efficiency for a projection.)