Tuesday's game: Clemson at BC

Feb 9, 2009, 10:03 AM

God's honest truth these are a lot easier to write when things go according to plan...

The Game: Clemson (19-3, 5-3 ACC, ranked No. 10) at Boston (18-7, 6-4 ACC, RPI of 50)
When: Tuesday, 9 p.m. at the Conti Forum
Is it on TV? FSN
What's the spread? none yet, Pomeroy likes Clemson by 4.
Last time we met:The Tigers scored 30 points off 20 Boston College turnovers for a 78-56 win over the Eagles in Littlejohn, following that with an 82-48 win in the ACC tourney.
Common foes: BC 4-4 (2 losses to Wake, split with VTech, 1 loss to Miami, beat UNC, NC State, GTech) Clemson is 4-2.
How come BC has played so many more conference games? My guess is Swofford is punishing them for beating UNC.

BC since the UNC win

That's right! They beat UNC! How has BC done since then? Not too good. After beating the Heels, BC appeared in the rankings with a 13-2 record. The Eagles are 4-5 since then, with a crippling RPI loss to ... Harvard. Even more interesting: BC already has 3 conference losses at home. Their ACC record includes a feast against bottom dwellers and setbacks to top foes. Consider them on par with VTech: tough but beatable.
Have they played Florida St. yet? No, and please don't bring that game up...this is hard enough as it is. But BC will lose to the Seminoles as well.
How can someone beat UNC, then lose to Harvard? In a word, defense ... or lack of it. I think by now, we've seen that the UNC loss was an abberation, an alignment of the moon and stars. BC is a team that struggles mightily against strong defense. Harvard played it; UNC didn't.

Tyrese Rice's famous uncle, Ben
But...but BC has Ty Rice He's pretty good isn't he? Rice is a great guard, excellent shooter and has a heart as big as Boston Commons. Rice (18 ppg, 3 reb, 5 ast, 3 TO) is THE go-to guy, the Toney Douglas of BC. He's scary good....but he's just one guy.

I have no idea what this is, but Google "Joe Trapani" and there you are!
And the Eagles don't have a walking telephone pole like FSU did. Fact is, they've got one more guy to worry about. That's Joe Trapani (13 ppg, 7 reb) who's settled nicely into a role as the inside man for BC. At 6-8 he presents far fewer worries than Alabi. Think of him more as a Brandon Costner type. His field goal average has slipped in ACC play, his rebounds are down to about 6.5 in ACC games, and he's not overly strong on the offensive boards. But Trapani can hit 3-points and free throws, so he's a legitimate threat.

So, if we're comparing BC to VTech, they've got an Allan and a Vassallo...what about Delaney? Sorry, no Delaney on BC. The closest they've got is guard Rakim Sanders (12 ppg, 4 reb, 2 ast) but nowhere near the ball handling ability. Plus, Sanders hurt his wrist in the Wake loss Sunday, so there's no guarantee he'll see much playing time.

No, no! Raji, not Hadji!

Stepping up will be forward Corey Raji (12 ppg, 6 reb) a decent shooting guy from the inside and guard Reggie Jackson (5 ppg, 3 reb, 2 ast). Reserve center Josh Southern (5 ppg, 4 reb) has been getting more minutes recently and after watching Alabi disrupt Clemson, BC might give him a lot of minutes....if they can keep him out of foul trouble.

As a team, BC scores less than Clemson, but is much better at the line. No doubt, they'll sag in and force Clemson to hit from outside ... which can be suicidal, but after our miserable game against FSU, it's really the best thot BC has.

The bulk of BC's offense goes through Rice. 25 percent of the team points, one third of the 3-pointers and free throws and nearly 40 percent of the team assists belong to him. Add Trapani's numbers, and the two combine for more than half of the team offense. If Sanders is hampered by his wrist, and the Tigers can limit Trapani, BC is in deep trouble.
Why's that? Because two of the Eagles' biggest problems on offense play into Clemson's hands. BC is among the ACC leaders in having shots blocked and in passive/aggressive defense. They don't go for steals or turnovers (13 per game) don't rebound especially well, and they foul more than Clemson.

Oh, and did I mention they're suspect against strong defense?

Clemson must feast on turnovers
That sounds promising. Who can exploit BC's weaknesses? Actually, the entire Clemson offense should be able to perform well ... assuming we can dictate the tempo with our defense. BC really doesn't like playing up-tempo. In ACC games, a score of above 76 would have beaten BC almost every time. And since BC is an effieicnt offense, the more turnovers the Tigers get, the fewer chances BC has to convert.

The player who needs to step up for Clemson is Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 9 reb, 3 blk). After a frustrating game against FSU, Booker faces a more manageable tandem in Trapani and Southern. Southern is more likely to foul, putting Booker at the line. Neither BC player is athletic enough to stay with Booker or Jerai Grant (6 ppg, 4 reb, 2 blk), and the Eagles will likely play a tight zone hoping to limit Clemson inside.

That opens the wings for KC Rivers (14 ppg, 6 reb) and Terrence Oglesby (12 ppg). Both were admittedly frustrated after the lackluster 3-point shooting (6 of 24) against FSU. They'll need to regain the range to make BC pay for their zone defense.

If Sanders is hurting, the Tiger pressure defense can create havoc for BC. Rice is a good enough guard to play through it, but BC is suspect with the ball elsewhere. Look for Clemson to use the defensive skills of Tanner Smith and David Potter to disrupt BC's offense.

On offense, Clemson will likely be hampered by BC's zone, especially if Booker is able to work inside early. The Eagles will likely defend as they did against Wake....put Rice on the best guard and matchup zone elsewhere. It didn't work against Jeff Teague, and if we're hitting from the outside, it won't work against Clemson either.

No hangover against BC
Aren't you worried about a hangover effect? If we had beaten FSU, I'd be concerned. But my hope is that OP sat the guys down and explained to them that the FSU game wasn't a hangover. It was taking your foot off the throat of an opponent who needed the win.

BC needs this win. If they lose to Clemson, they're looking at likely losses to Duke, Miami and Florida State. They fall to 6-8 and are lucky to sniff the NIT.

So BC will be motivated to win at home. Certainly we need to be as well. A win for the Tigers keeps us in the top 4 in the ACC.

The Tigers need to establish the tempo and not let up. Rice will get his points, Trapani may hit a few from outside, but if we play the defense we can and convert on turnovers, Clemson should take this game.

And we can all relax for a few days.

Message was edited by: RevDodd®