A look ahead: Clemson at Miami

Jan 25, 2008, 1:26 PM

The Game: Clemson (14-4, 3-2) at Miami (14-4, 1-3)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. in Miami
Is it on TV? Whatever your R/LF affiliate is. But make an effort to find the game. It should be can't-miss TV.
Why is that? Because this game will go a long way to determining the rest of the season for both teams and both teams know it. This generally makes for an intense contest.
Why is this game so important? If Clemson is truly going to establish itself from the swirling mob in the middle of the ACC, this is exactly the kind of game where it happens. If Miami wants to stop its skid and get back into discussion as an NCAA tourney team, this is a game it MUST win.
Yeah, what happened to Miami? Weren't they ranked? Wasn't Clemson ranked early on last year? The Canes rode a weak schedule and an impressive win on the road at Miss. State to break into the top 25.
Then reality (in the form of the ACC) hit. Next thing you know, the Canes are losing to NC State and having their hat handed to them by UNC.
So just how bad is Miami? In fairness, not nearly as bad as people thought originally. They were supposed to be in the basement of the conference, but they've found some substantial talent.
Like who? Like junior guard Jack McClinton (16 ppg, 3 reb, 3 asst, nearly 50 percent from 3-point land). He's been one of the big surprises in the ACC this year. He can dribble drive, pass and shoot from anywhere...in short, the kind of player that gives us fits. Sophomore guard James Dews (11 ppg, 2 asst) is no slouch either. When folks try to clamp down on McClinton, he's been able to hit.

They unveiled a new threat in the loss to UNC. Forward Raymond Hicks (6 ppg, 4 boards) had 17 against the Heels. Forward-centers Dwayne Collins and Anthony King are bookends offensively (9 ppg, 7 boards each).

But this is McClinton's show. When he's on, they are trouble. When he's off, they lose to NC State. It's sort of like Virginia was last year....and we all recall how that went for Clemson.

Ugh! What's our best bet? Hope that Miami is suffering a post-UNC letdown. Or that McClinton eats some bad clams. Otherwise, this will likely be a dogfight.

No doubt, the Canes have studied the Wake game and saw what Ish Smith did to our defense. Unless we're going to park someone in the middle and force them to the outside, Miami will certainly try to drive the middle and either shoot or dish.

How do the Tigers stack up? McClinton isn't quite as fast as Smith, so Cliff Hammonds (10 ppg, 4 rebm, 4 asst) may be able to stay in front of him. If not, look for even more time from the suddenly revitalized Sam Perry (10 points vs. Wake and a solid defensive effort.) KC Rivers (16 ppg, 7 reb, 3 asst) presents matchup problems for the Canes and Miami's slower big men inside couldn't come close to stopping Hansborough. Trevor Booker (12 ppg, 9 reb, 2 asst, 2 blocks) may well have another big game.

James Mays (11 ppg, 7 reb, 3 asst) is still working through his hand injury, but will be counted on for help underneath. Demontez Stitt (8 ppg, 2 asst, 2 boards, 3 tos) may have an easier night. Miami doesn't press as much as other teams we've faced lately.

The wild card will be whether Terrence Oglesby's hot shooting hand (12 ppg, 44 percent from beyond the arc) will return on the road, or if the Tigers' traditional dismal 3-point shooting in Miami continues. For some reason the Tigers have never shot well there. TO may consider it a personal challenge.

What else should we know? Well, let's see. UNC is the only team to beat Miami at home this year. We average about 5 points a game more on offense, but they allow about 5 points a game less on defense. They shoot free throws MUCH better than we do. In fact, there's a suspicion that Miami may well adopt a hack-a-Tiger defense down low, figuring Booker's 0-6 performance at the line vs. Wake might continue.

Miami is one of the best teams in the ACC at denying easy shots. Their rebounding margin is just a little worse than ours, and they are right behind us in blocked shots. The Canes would rather defend than press, and they rank toward the bottom in steals. they take care of the ball though -- their assist-turover ratio is identical to Clemson's.

We have a decisive edge in offensive rebounds, which we will need to exploit to control this game.

As folks can see, there's no clear-cut favorite in this fight...which tends to give the edge to the home team.

So, what's the verdict? I can't say I feel good about this. The Tigers have played very well on the road this year, but have trouble with solid guard-oriented teams.

To win, we'll need to hold sway o both boards and hit enough FTs to make any hack-a-Tiger defense futile. We'll need the sort of game we brought to Tuscaloosa. And we'll need Miami to be looking back a bit at UNC, like we did.

But the computer models are calling this a tossup for a reason. It's not going to be easy...as if the ACC road ever was for Clemson.

Message was edited by: RevDodd®