Today's Game: Clemson at Wake

Mar 5, 2010, 4:14 PM

Who: Clemson (21-8, 9-6 ACC) at Wake Forest (18-9, 8-7 ACC)
When: Tonight at the Joel, 6 p.m. By the way, tickets are available.
Is it on TV? Yep, on FSN, if you get that.

Clemson fans turned out for our last win at Wake...

When last we met: Why do you even ask? We haven't beaten Wake at the Joel since the Earth cooled. OK, it was 96-88 in a game that cost Clemson a bye last year. Are you happy now?
What's the spread? Wake by 1, all but negating the built-in home court edge. BTW, Pomeroy and RealTime RPI like Clemson by a point and RPI Stats has it a tossup.
A tossup on the road! What's the deal? Well, remember that everyone expected us to collapse at the end of the season. Since we aren't doing that this year, it looks like Vegas has taken a second look...and like what they see.

Meanwhile, Wake Forest seems to have caught Clemson's late-season bug. The Deacs have not only lost their last 4 games, they've looked pretty miserable doing so. How do you explain a 14-point loss to NC State? or losing to UNC by any score this year? Or one of the most inept offensive performances of the season the other night at FSU? Things are not going well for the Deacs. The only question: will they get things turned around for Senior Night?

Is it Senior Night? Oh Lord, we're doomed! Well, maybe not. For openers, it's also Spring Break at Wake. And given the chance to head to Cancun and engage in some strictly non-Baptist activities, or watch the moribund offense of the Deacs, I know which I'd choose.

Ishmael seeks the elusive Senior Day win

The Deacs are led by senior guard Ish Smith (11 ppg the last 10 games, 5 asts) who's been a thorn in the side of Clemson his whole career at Wake. A quick good-shooting, slasher of a guard, Smith has found ways to score on the Tigers. He's quick enough to evade the trap, and is fearless in his drives to the rim.

Or he was. In the Deacs' skid, Ish has looked more like Fish. He's been floundering as a floor general for the Deacs.

In fairness, the swoon hasn't been all his fault. Supposed NBA lottery pick Al Farouk Aminu has averaged half of his usual 15 ppg during the swoon. And he's fouled out of his last three games. Part of his woes may be due to a hand injury he suffered vs. FSU, but his 1 3-pointer in his last four games have really reduced the effectiveness of Wake's offense.

Early-season wunderkind CJ Harris has all but disappeared offensively, he was averaging double figures, but has managed only 4 points per game last month until breaking into double figures against vs. FSU ... and that's because Aminu fouled out again. Guard L.D. Williams has tried to pick up the slack, hitting double figures in 5 of the last 6 games, but his 3-point range is Allenspachian so no one worries about him beyond the arc.

Then there's everyone's favorite 7-foot totem pole, Chas McFarland (7 ppg, 7 reb, 7 comparisons to Bigfoot per game). Clemson folks generally remember him as the oaf who fell into the student section last year, then couldn't get up and said a 5-10 ceramic engineering student was holding him down.
Rah-Rah, Wake Forest Rah!
It's been a month since he's seen double figures as well. Mainly because when Chas isn't picking on students, he's fouling ... a lot.In ACC games he's only had one finish with fewer than 3 fouls.

Freshman forward Ari Stewart (7 ppg, 4 reb) shows promise, and he's likely the Deacs best threat from the arc. But essentially, the whole Deacon defense is in a funk, and the defense is getting worn down late in the game.

Tough days for the Wake coach...

Why's that? The fans are blaming their coach Dino Flinstone, but he's not the one making Aminu chuck 3-pointers like they were covered with fire ants....or making Ish Smith shovel passes to players in alternate dimensions. The Deacon running offense, that got them wins over Maryland and Xavier is getting bogged down, the players are getting frustrated and cranking ill-advised shots. Then they follow up with slow-footed defense on the other end.

The Deacs turnover assist ratio has sagged to one of the worst in the league and their free throw shooting is Clemsonesque ... that's the old Clemson, not the one that's been winning lately. They are having major trouble consistently hitting from the outside, meaning folks have been able to pack in on their big guys and clog things up.

Wake's zone defense is tall, but a bit slow

Finally, Wake just plain looks tired. If you saw their game at FSU, they sort of stumbled through their half-court progressions, and while they played a spirited defense, they got little out of the stops they managed.

So, you're saying there's a chance for Clemson? Let's look at it this way ... yes. But it's not as easy as it might appear. First of all, the last time Clemson won at Wake, the game was delayed when a herd of mastodons rumbled across the floor. Yes, it's been that long.

Secondly, while Wake has looked bad, three of those losses were on the road. The home loss was to UNC, which actually showed up for the game. Overall, the Deacs are 12-2 at home, losing to UNC and William and Mary.

And it's Senior Night, even if all the smart seniors are en route to the beach. Wake KNOWS it has to win this game ... not for a bye but for a reasonable shot a the Dance.

The biggest worry I have, though, is that Wake likes to run, and Clemson's likes to push the tempo. After two weeks of half-court horror, the Deacs finally get to open things up again. Plus knowing Tanner Smith's ankle is likely gimpy, we're losing a major piece of our defense.

How will Clemson respond? Wake will collapse on Trevor Booker (16 ppg, 9 reb, 3 ast, 3 straight double-doubles ... if you fudge the GTech win a bit) but unlike some other foes, the Deacs have enough size to keep Jerai Grant (plus his documented foul problems on the road) at bay. But its going to afford players like David Potter, Milt Jennings and Noel Johnson closer looks at the basket as everyone sags.

Count on Wake to pay more attention to Andre Young (14 ppg and 50 percent from the arc his last 5 games) than previous foes, probably committing the taller Stewart on him. In effect look for Wake to put up a donut defense to stop the inside and outside. It's up to the Tigers to find the holes....and that's going to take patience.

So, there are a few things Clemson might want to look at against the Deacs:

Smith is taking the offense on his shoulders

1. Thwart Ish Smith: Usually, it wouldn't be a good idea, but unless Aminu regains his shooting touch there is NO ONE on the Deac team who can carry the load but Smith. And he's proven prone to throw the ball away this year. Stitt, now recovered, is a solid match for him. Keep him from slashing inside.

2. Switch the pressure: Since Wake has essentially one ball handler in Smith, keep varying the pressure. Get in his head with different looks as often as possible. But break up the tandem of Smith and Aminu regardless. The two combine for 7 turnovers per game, and that's without pressure.

3. On offense, find the shot. We're not likely to be able to pound inside, unless we get Wake's big guys in foul trouble. So don't count on Booker and Grant having double-doubles. This is a game where our new-found outside shooting will make a huge difference. Once Wake comes outside, look for the mid-range jumper to take over. All of Wake's losses have come in games when at least one player was in double figures from the outside.

4. Hold Wake under 70 points: The Deacs have been doing a fine job of this by themselves lately, but in all but one of its losses, Wake has score 70 or fewer points. We've proven that we can win low-scoring games. Wake hasn't.

You sound pretty confident: are you? Sure, why not? We can claim a bye, and win-or-lose we're in the Dance.

I'd love me an extra day of rest!

A win will give them an extra day of rest in the tourney, which is certainly worth fighting for. But basically, this game is gravy, no pressure. The guys should go out and have fun. Even though we got no help in yesterday's games, our win at FSU should make them believe another road win is possible. Not easy, but possible.

All they have to do is claim it.

Message was edited by: RevDodd®

Message was edited by: RevDodd®