Saturday's Game: FSU at Clemson

Feb 6, 2009, 10:11 AM

Who: Florida State (17-5, 4-3 ACC, No. 28 RPI) at Clemson (19-2, 5-2 ACC, No. 10 AP)
Where: 7 p.m. in Littlejohn. Game is a sellout
The Line: Not out yet. Pomeroy likes Clemson by 11
Is it on TV: Some regional places: Check local listings
When Last We Met: The Tigers endured one of the worst shooting nights in recent memory, falling to FSU 64-55 in Tally.
Common opponents: Fla. State 2-3, Clemson 4-1.

Sound like the Noles are having trouble with tougher foes, right? Well, let's see: They came a heckuva lot closer to beating UNC than we did. They won at State by more than we beat the Wuffies at home. And the Noles gave Pitt fits with their defense.

Which way to Fort Courage?

Three of the Nole losses are to top 5 (at the time) teams and the others are close. So Don't sell the Noles short. They're a scrappy bunch.

Yeah, but THEY didn't beat Duke by 128 points, did they? Nope, and that's probably why they aren't ranked. But a win over Clemson in Littlejohn would certainly give them ammo for an NCAA berth. Basically the Noles have a chance to make a statement, hoping that Clemson is still reading its clips from last Wednesday.

Douglas does it all for FSU

And just how will they do that? With a very athletic, physical defense and a solid guard named Toney Douglas (20 ppg, 4 reb, 2 st.) He's a take-charge, Jack McClinton/Ty Rice sort of guy, scoring 32 vs. UNC, 30 at Miami and 25 vs. NC State.

He's not as fluid as Delaney or Teague, but very durable. He typically scores about a third of FSU's points and free throws and nearly 40 percent of their 3-pointers. The rest of the Noles exist basically to get him the ball. No one else on the team averages in double figures.

Douglas isn't an especially good ball handler (assist/TO ration is less than 1-1) which means when he gets the ball it's not likely to go to anyone else. He also has a tendency to pick up fouls in tough games, and in his last 3 games he's 3 of 14 from 3-point land, meaning perhaps his legs are tiring. Or maybe folks are just covering him better.

Will Kitchen sink vs. Clemson?

The other FSU guard of note is sophomore Derwin Kitchen (8 ppg 2 ast.) After sitting the first third of the season, Kitchen sees plenty of time. His job mainly is to feed Douglas and make people pay for over-playing Douglas outside.

Kitchen can hit. He had 13 last night vs. GTech and 16 against Duke. He's not especially solid from 3-point land, but he can pick up table scraps on the offensive board.

Alabi is also a master of the Vulcan mind meld.

Up front, the Noles are tall, rangy and athletic. The biggest body is 7-1 Solomon Alabi (7 ppg, 5 reb, 2 blk) Think Zoubeck with more range. He can hit double figures against teams with a weak inside game, but struggles against seasoned post players. But he doesn't foul much and has a nice touch for a big guy.

Uche Echefu (8 ppg, 5 reb) is finally a senior. I swear he's been around since the Noles joined the ACC. His numbers aren't impressive (except his fouls) but he seems to play his best against tough opponents. Interesting note: he gets almost as many points per game from the free throw line than the field. His free throws last night kept GTech from catching the Noles.

Freshman forward Chris Singleton (8 ppg, 5 reb) started strong, but has struggled against quality opponents. He fouls a lot as well, and as a result, his minutes are slipping. He's hit double giures only once since Thanksgiving and his usual role is to defend. I guess we all know who's getting TO this game.

Other Noles of note: bit players Ryan Reid (6 ppg) and guard Luke Loucks (4 ppg) are first off the bench and see a number of defensive minutes. Junior forward Jordan DeMercy (3 ppg, 3 reb) has seen his minutes slip away in ACC play.

The Noles use 8 players regularly, but this is a one-horse show on offense: Contain Douglas and FSU is sunk. Most opponents have been content to let him put up gaudy numbers and simply clamp down elsewhere, with varying success. Northwestern let him go, but shut down the Noles inside. Duke clamped on him and let the inside go. Nobody has totally shut down both parts of FSU's game. Of course, they haven't had to.

Tony: FSU's one-trick pony

As is often the case with a one-trick pony, FSU can go stone cold for stretches. Last night, they couldn't buy a 3-pointer, but hit 24 free throws and outslugged GTech Tally. As with most of their games, it wasn't pretty. The Noles don't play pretty basketball. They turn the ball over ... a lot and allow other teams a surprising number of offensive boards for such a tall team.

How do we stack up? I think of FSU as Wake, minus the McDonalds All-Americans. There's no Ish Smith, and Jeff Teague may have spent a little too much time at the taco bar. But their size inside will give Clemson problems, so we need to be hitting from the arc and look for opportunities.

I got plenty mo for ya, FSU!
Certainly all eyes will be on Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 9 reb, 2 ast, 3 blk) as he faces taller opponents no matter where he goes. Thusfar, Alabi prefers to play defense by standing back and swatting underneath, so attacking the rim may not be the best bet. I'm betting Booker draws Echefu, and should be able to abuse him.

It will be tougher for Ray Sykes (8 ppg, 5 reb) and Jerai Grant (5 ppg, 4 reb) against the taller defenders, much like the Wake game was.

That moves the game to the wings, where Clemson has a solid advantage. KC Rivers (14 ppg, 6 reb, 2 ast, 2 st) is taller and more versatile than Douglas, and if FSU drops off on him, that's goning to leave Terrence "Dr. Dunkenstein" Oglesby (13 ppg, 0 dunks) open. Other than follow everyone else's lead and drape a defender on TO, FSU really has no defensive option.

Potter: Now that's an interesting thought...

Which leads to an intriguing possibility: we may see a lot of David Potter (6 ppg, 3 reb, 2 ast) Saturday. FSU doesn't have an answer to his game, with 12-15 foot jumpers and an ability to play outside. If FSU sags on Booker, Potter can eat them alive. If they come out on Potter, it opens space inside for Booker, Sykes and Grant.

Whichever way we set up, count on the press to be in full effect. FSU's penchant for turnovers and lack of big men who can handle the ball make this a perfect opponent for pressure defense. We need to avoid fouling, because the Noles are solid at the line, but with them coming off a Thursday night game, legs should start getting weary for FSU in the second half.

Teams who can score in the mid-70s regularly tend to have a better chance against the Noles. Teams who can force turnovers and make them to shoot from the outside fare better as well.

So, what are our chances? FSU is a good team, but the sort of team Clemson needs to beat to set the Tigers up as a top-tier team. Traditionally we've had trouble with FSU's athleticism, and the Noles are certainly athletic this year. The difference is we're getting dep in the season and while FSU plays a lot of guys, they don't all produce ... sort of like UNC's old "blue team," they hope to hold the line while the scorers get some rest.

Sorry, Noles! not this time!

That approach won't work against Clemson's defense this year. I think the Tigers wear down FSU, forcing enough turnovers to send the Noles home with a loss.

Taco outlook: Not this time. FSU is too deliberate. They'll eat clock, so you won't eat tacos.

Message was edited by: RevDodd®

Message was edited by: RevDodd®