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Topic: Watson's INT ratio - reasonable or not?
Replies: 30   Last Post: Nov 18, 2016, 6:23 PM by: FLTiger87
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Replies: 30  

Watson's INT ratio - reasonable or not?

emoji_events [10]
Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:32 AM
 

See a lot of posts asking what is reasonable in #s of Ints for the 70 passes Watson threw in the Pitt game. See where many have stated that 2 is reasonable or 1 int per 30 attempts is reasonable for an elite level QB. I did a little research and call BS. As good as he is, Watson throws way way to many ints compared to other elite QBs.

Here are a couple of elite QBs for comparison:

Dak Prescott for his last year threw 477 attempts at a 66.2% completion rate with only 5 Ints. That is 1 int for every 95.5 attempts for the year. For his entire career, Dak averaged 1 int per 50.5 pass attempts.

Marcus Mariota for his last year had 445 attempts at a 68.3% completion rate with only 4 Ints. That is 1 int for every 111.25 attempts for the year. For his entire career, Marcus averaged 1 int per 83.3 pass attempts.


So far this year, Watson is has 387 attempts at a 66.2% completion rate with 13 Ints. That is 1 int for every 29.7 passes. For his career so far, Watson is averaging an int every 30.6 passes.

I chose those two because IMO they ran similar offenses and are comparable to Watsons skill level. I don't think either of those QBs had the compliment of receivers to work with that Watson has. They are all very similar when looking at their stats until you look at their Int ratio to pass attempts. Watson has made some very questionable decisions on many of his throws comparatively. Both of the above had a much higher attempt to int ratio than 70 to 1 in their last year of CFB.

Based on these stats, it is entirely reasonable to expect a QB of Watsons talent and skill level to throw 70 passes in a game without an INT.

link

It's without doubt his weakness.

[1]
Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:36 AM
 

Still the best to ever wear the paw.

But, the random INTs are his weakness.

link

Its not always how many, it's when they're thrown.***

[1]
Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:36 AM
 



2021 purple level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg link

My old Grandad used to say, "When one door closes, another one opens". Great man, lousy cabinet maker though.


Re: Its not always how many, it's when they're thrown.***


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:44 AM
 

I also believe that how they are thrown is huge as well. The first interception(can't remember who was targeted), Deshaun stared the receiver down the entire route. It seems like he hasn't been as diligent about actually going through his progressions this year.

2021 student level member link

Re: Its not always how many, it's when they're thrown.***


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:31 AM
 

no kidding. We have taken some points off the board with INT's In the red zone this year. He's still the GOAT for sure, but some are head scratchers.

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Exactly.. he could have thrown 5, but if they're all in red zone


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 1:40 PM
 

Like many have been, its a problem.

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null


Re: Its not always how many, it's when they're thrown.***


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:05 AM
 

And so far they've come at the worst time possible....red zone...about to score. Game changers....break momentum.

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Re: Watson's INT ratio - reasonable or not?


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:43 AM
 

Years ago, the standard use to be...2 to 1
2 TDs to every INTs.

Now a days, you get the sense that isn't good enough.
Its sometimes hard to gauge ints based on what happen during the play.
But, just off the top of my head, Watson should probably only have no
more than about 8 ints.

#21

link

You're right. Deshaun SUCKS!!!


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:49 AM
 

Put in the back up

link

He's the best player in Clemson history


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:19 AM
 

The random INTs are his weakness.

Both can be true statements.

link

HEY YOU!!!


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:27 AM
 

Why can't we have clearing thinking like that around here!! Good post! No, GREAT post.

link

I meant to say "more" clear thinking***


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:28 AM
 

d

link

Just to be clear, I was being sarcastic***


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:00 AM
 



link

Re: Just to be clear, I was being sarcastic***


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:12 AM
 

It doesn't matter how often you're sarcastic, it matters where you're sarcastic....

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Re: Just to be clear, I was being sarcastic***


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:16 AM
 

Thanks guy, real nice....

link

Do you think all this "unlike watson" playing sprouted....

[1]
Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:15 AM
 

....after he started complaining about being labeled a dual threat QB? I feel like once he started talking about that topic, his demeanor on the field changed. Do you think he decided he didn't want to be labeled dual threat and has been trying to force something that is not him? He seemed so elusive last year...squirming out of impossible situations. This year it seems he sits in the pocket for long periods and stares down his receivers. Taken a lot more sacks too...or at least it seems that way. So many passes have been batted down/intercepted compared to last year. He just seemed a lot more comfortable and poised last year compared to this year.

In golf we would says "He's got the yips"

link

I think this is exactly it

[1]
Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:22 AM
 

He is trying to prove to NFL scouts that he can be a pocket passer. I wish he would just be the DW4 that got him to this point. What's wrong with dual threat? Ever heard of cam newton?

link

Reasonable or not it is what it is and I wouldn't want any

[1]
Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 10:50 AM
 

Other qb under center.

2021 white level member link

i'd rather see a comparable to Jameis


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:09 AM
 

Winston. He threw a lot of picks too, but I think his were mostly the same reason that Deshaun throws his. They trust their ability and arm strength.

Jameis is doing ok for the Bucs and that is without a bevy of talented WRs. He has 1 receiver in Evans that is good and he disappears in some games depending on who is covering him.

Watson I believe has a better football IQ than Winston but maybe not the arm strength. I think Watson will be fine in the NFL. I truly believe he will be the Top QB in this years Draft Class. The next closest one to him would be someone like Browning at Washington. I don't believe in the Deshaun Kizer hype at all and Mason Rudolph I don't think has it either.

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Watson and Jameis are very comparable


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:39 AM
 

Their last year in NCAA was not as good as their previous year.

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Yet another reason why it was SO STUPID


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:32 AM
 

for the staff to do anything other than MANDATE that series (the Brightwell pick) be all ground plays once we got so deep into the red zone.

Watson is great, and you make a good breakdown there - he does have this weakness. I don't want to throw DW under the bus more than anyone else, but the coaches MUST know when they are nursing a lead and what it takes to nurse and extend one while melting clock. If we continue to use the same playbook regardless of circumstance, it will cause problems. It could have prevented the loss Saturday.

Sorry for the rabbit trail. Nice breakdown, and I completely agree with your analysis.

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Why do posters spend precious time researching information

[1]
Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 11:43 AM
 

that has no relation to each other? Different players, different teams, different opponents, no relations! The only fact needed is that Watson has led us to a 23-2 record, national championship game, top 4 for this year's playoffs and is a TRUE WINNER!! All the other stuff is garbage!!

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DWat


Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 12:25 PM
 

made a dumb decision in the RZ, got greedy, and paid for it. He knows better. Situational football, time and score, and possession, must trump greed for points. He'll learn from it. Let's move on.

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Those two had oline's that could run block, Watson doesn't...

[1]
Posted: Nov 17, 2016, 12:46 PM
 

Prescott and Mariotta weren't depended on to win every single game with their arm due to lack of a running game. So I'm calling BS on you leaving out the fact that those two QB's had much better rushing attacks than Watson does. Not to mention the int's off of tipped passes or wrong routes by the receiver

badge-donor-05yr.jpg link

WHY DIDN'T you include the # of Touchdowns? I think that is


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:12 AM
 

MORE relavent --

TD vs INT is usually the stat you see.


plus = HE IS A WINNER which means MORE to me.


How many ELITE QB's would trade for his WIN vs LOSS stat ???????

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null


Re: WHY DIDN'T you include the # of Touchdowns? I think that is


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:18 AM
 

> MORE relavent --
>
> TD vs INT is usually the stat you see.
>
>
> plus = HE IS A WINNER which means MORE to me.
>
>
> How many ELITE QB's would trade for his WIN vs LOSS
> stat ???????

I don't think anyone is denying he is a winner. In fact, he's one of the best if not the best right now. I think people are trying to compare his demeanor on the field last year vs. this year and things just look different. Yes hes still making incredible throws/plays...but just a bit more rash decision making....

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Re: WHY DIDN'T you include the # of Touchdowns? I think that is


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:21 AM
 

I understand that as well - I'd prefer perfect

but the OP was asking about acceptable int stats ..... I don't understand that conversation without TD vs INT numbers .....

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null


Re: WHY DIDN'T you include the # of Touchdowns? I think that is


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 10:19 AM
 

I didn't include it because the topic was in regards to what was an acceptable # of pass attempts per interception. Not TDs thrown vs the # of Ints. It also doesn't have anything to do with his record as that takes the entire team etc. it was just about Watson vs other elite QBs but since you asked,

Last year played:

Prescott 29 TDs vs 5 Ints - 5.8 to 1

Mariota 42 TDs vs 4 Ints - 10.5 to 1

This year: Watson 27 TDs vs 13 Ints - 2.07 to 1

You don't math much do you? Kinda dumb to even think that someone throwing Ints at more than two times the rate of the others in the comparison would have a better ratio when looking at the TDs vs the Ints.

link

hey don't be a jacka$$ because I asked relevant question


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 6:23 PM
 

or else don't answer at all.

I guess you don't do math much since you didn't include it


why the attitude when you are trying to have a discussion about INT'S ??????

link

null


I remember last year defenders dropping passes that were

[1]
Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:17 AM
 

Thrown directly to them. I remember saying, "Wow, we were lucky there!" Well, that's not happening this year. The defenders are catching them for INTs and the total is rising rapidly.

link

Re: Watson's INT ratio - reasonable or not?


Posted: Nov 18, 2016, 8:23 AM
 

How would the season look if we had run blocking and DW was running like the end of last year?

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