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Topic: What were the original models predicting?
Replies: 30   Last Post: Apr 27, 2020, 8:02 AM by: tigermanac®
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Replies: 30  

What were the original models predicting?

[2]
Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:03 AM
 

Seems like it was 2-3.7% death rate with millions dying from the Covid. After several 'adjustment,' to the models the estimates came down to about 60K deaths, the estimates are down to a .5% death rate or about 5 times what a regular flu season brings.

The hospitals are getting government paychecks which cover treating each Covid patient between 33K and 130K. Hospitals are categorizing everyone who dies with the virus as having died with the virus. That means that someone who has a heart attack and shows positive with the virus earns the hospital a payday from the government whether or not they are showing symptoms of the virus.

Now couple that information with the following and tell me we haven't been duped by the bureaucrats in the CDC, FDA and NIH. The 'health experts,' are now in control of our nation.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1253353550610149383?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1253353550610149383&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Farchives%2Fallahpundit%2F2020%2F04%2F23%2Fcuomo-antibody-study-shows-21-2-new-york-city-infected-nearly-14-statewide%2F

We are a nation of putzes and Trump is the King Putz.

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I trust the President and his team now


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:09 AM
 

and I trusted them then. I think they are doing a great job, and they are a major reason the numbers of deaths are not much higher.

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So are you going with Lysol or 409?


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:51 AM
 

Or straight up bleach?

Trusting a man with thousands of well documented public lies is naive at best.

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I don't trust him on medical advice


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:57 AM
 

Because he's not a doctor, but I trust him and his team on their guidance for American response to the COVID-19 crisis.

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It’s definitely lower than originally predicted. Might hold


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:11 AM
 

off on the “duped” comment though. Would be interesting to see with the original predictions what the assumptions were around people staying at home. Did the predictions include a nationwide stay at home order? Or were they predicting those death numbers assuming people continued to go about their daily lives? Or was it a blend of the two? Maybe people’s behaviors helped the death % to be lower than the original predictions. Not saying they were accurate by any means, but lots of factors in play.

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Mitigation was considered in the original models.


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:48 AM
 

The only unknown was HCQ which I do not believe you will consider as being effective against the virus.

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No. The original 1-2M numbers were without mitigation...


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:03 AM
 

However, the revisions came quick and they're not over... The next few phases will show it.

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Ya I would like to know what their “mitigation” assumptions were.***


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:41 AM
 



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I scratch my head at the mindset.


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:58 AM
 

Projections are high. Later they are lower.

Instead of "Fantastic! We've done well!," the mindset is "It's a big conspiracy!"

I don't get the mindset. It's like people don't want to be pleased.

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you juss now figgering this out? ;)***


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:00 AM
 



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If she's a hollerer, she'll be a screamer.
If she's a screamer, she'll get you arrested.


That’s what makes science different from dogma

emoji_events [6]
Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:14 AM
 

You revise as you get more data - if all the answers were known when it started it wouldn’t have been a new and scary thing. Find some scientists to follow and read and stay away from clickbait media and you would have seen that the folks that were doing the actual work admitted all long that the models were best guesses based on available information. Models are just that - not the real thing.

There is good evidence that the virus damages heart tissue in many patients so to say that counting a heart attack death in a virus positive person is dishonest is not completely accurate.

Hospitals have always written diagnoses to get the best financial benefit, whether it’s insurance or the government paying, why should this be any different.

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Re: That’s what makes science different from dogma

[1]
Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:20 AM
 

While I generally agree with your comment, just to clarify, "upcoding" or billing CMS (or any payer) fraudulently is an enormous liability for hospitals and they employ enormous numbers of people to make sure this doesn't happen. If you get busted upcoding or overcoding, fines and being excluded from CMS are a death knell. Look at Nason Medical for a prime example of this, he got d'd down hard and is just now poking his head back up.

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Science dictates...


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:46 AM
 

that an autopsy will determine the cause of death. Doctors call the time of death then send the body to the morgue for examinations.

That isn't what's happening now. NY reports that about 2.7 million people have had the virus without symptoms or any form of illness. If any one of them had died of a heart attack they would have been counted as a Covid death.

That isn't dogma, that's science, something Brix ignored when she instructed medical personnel to count anyone who dies with the virus as having died from the virus.

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Heart attack is a bad example -


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 7:28 PM
 

COVID is causing strange clotting behavior that can lead to stroke and heart attack.

But they aren't counting anybody who dies with the virus a COVID death - that's a big myth.

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Really.


Posted: Apr 26, 2020, 5:45 PM
 

Their mouth to your ear.

https://twitter.com/mrctv/status/1254077961369608192

2021 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpgringofhonor-clemsontiger1988-110.jpg link

Exactly. That's how science works.***


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:59 AM
 



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Re: What were the original models predicting?


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:20 AM
 

I have a paper that was distributed by state emergency management (I believe.. it ended up with me through a county source) on February 25. It estimated a best case scenario of 387 deaths and a worst case of 1.6 million. This was based on WHO/CDC data and tons of different model runs.

The first model I have record of with social distancing taken into account were 100,000-200,000. Dr. Fauci was the one who said it could be as low as 60,000 but that will bust in a few days. So it seems like the original social distancing models may have nailed it. Of course, still a chance we pass the 200,000 number. Basically no chance we stay under 60.

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Perhaps two things...


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:55 AM
 

1. Maybe we're "winning" in the big scheme of things.

2. Maybe it's also better to project worse numbers and aim to beat them than vice versa.

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Death, Famine, Pestilence & 5mill dead***


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:55 AM
 



link

If she's a hollerer, she'll be a screamer.
If she's a screamer, she'll get you arrested.


So we're Egypt during the exodus.


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 10:59 AM
 

By decree I proclaim anyone wanting to leave America is free to do so now!

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I fergot War***

[1]
Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:02 AM
 



link

If she's a hollerer, she'll be a screamer.
If she's a screamer, she'll get you arrested.


I figured it would be early next week or so when the


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:07 AM
 

casualty numbers would start to show a definite over the 60K threshold that the fake Covid death number talk would start to crank up. We know how the POTUS thrives on simple scoreboards and measures like these. Way to get ahead of the curve on this one. You will have plenty in tow soon enough.

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Someone posted below. The models are predicting this ends


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:23 AM
 

totally, everywhere, in June. Zero new cases, zero future deaths.

History books, however, indicate models, and politicians/governments, tend to be full of crap.

Also keep in mind the world isn't like we are, or Europe, or even China. 1/3 of the people on Earth live in poverty we never can imagine in the United States or Europe.

Also keep in mind we don't even know the effectiveness of antibodies for this virus. If it tracks like MERS, we're screwed. If it tracks like SARS (original), we will be far better off. But that's stuff we don't know yet. Lot of stuff we don't know. We do know no ER doctors in NYC have ever seen anything like this, ever. Aside from the effectiveness/longevity of antibodies, we don't know if 50% or 80% of Americans need to become infected (to some degree depending on antibodies produced) to have this die out and go back to working 100%. We only know enough to know the models are wrong. Just like we can predict with near certainty that an approaching hurricane will NOT be where they say in 6-7 days. Just won't happen.

I do know the models that show this ends by sometime in June, are false.

And the MERS/SARS antibody research shows a massive difference in antibody effectiveness, even though they're both coronaviruses. With MERS, antibody levels are heavily dependent on exposure levels and severity. Severe MERS cases, those admitted to ICU's and eventually recovered and didn't die, have high antibody levels that last at least 18 months+. But, milder cases of MERS, those people create low levels of antibodies, and they wear off in a month or two. Now with SARS (original), almost all cases had high levels of antibodies, that lasted a long time. But we don't know about the effect of antibodies with this. If this is like MERS, then anyone who spent time in an ICU, those would be the only people safe to return to work. Those with cases that don't require hospitalization, they're as vulnerable as everyone else after a month or two, and can and will eventually be reinfected, over and over again, until they get very sick, then recover. So there's a massive difference in the potential for antobodies to have an impact. THEN you have an unknown r0. And that varies by population density anyway. But if it's 2-2.5 like they suggest, then we only need 50-60% of people infected for herd immunity to end this. If it's 5.5-6.0 like some studies suggest, then we need 80%+ to be infected. Again, a huge difference, and a huge unknown. Either way, best case scenario we're just over 1/3 of the way to ending this in NY. And again an r0 of 5+, making this twice as infectious as the flu, means MANY more people will get this than the flu. .5% of 80% of 370 million is what? 1.5 million people. That's how many people die (assuming everyone gets strong and lasting antibodies) and an r0 of 5.5-6.0. An r0 of 2.5 means 925,000 deaths (assuming the same best case scenario for antibodies). Assuming a real fatality rate of .5%, which is still an assumption anyway too.

We just don't know. And that's just the way it is going to be. But if it's good news we WILL know about it. If it's bad news, we won't know. If history is any guide.

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Re: Someone posted below. The models are predicting this ends


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 9:57 PM
 

Zero models say this ends in June, they just don’t predict past June because it would be purely speculative.

Also, y’all need to stop putting too much stock in that N.Y. survey. That survey was done on people not following the “stay at home”. There is also no reputable antibody test yet, with all of them having 1+% false positives.

Remember when were thought Hydroxychloroquinine was viable when non-peer reviewed studies suggested as such? Whelp that got destroyed quickly once actual studies took place

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I’ll add this as well


Posted: Apr 24, 2020, 11:39 AM
 

Attached info is from the DHEC website. Average age of COVID-19 death in SC is 74 and median is 75. Life expectancy in the US is 78.93.

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Well we are just getting cranked up good


Posted: Apr 27, 2020, 6:43 AM
 

their might be 200,000 deaths in a few more months

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Re: Well we are just getting cranked up good

[1]
Posted: Apr 27, 2020, 7:00 AM
 

ok......can we all go back to work? Can I live my life? Can I just play golf with my buds? Can I just go on a boat ride with my buds? Can my kids just enjoy our place at Hilton Head?

If these answers are a hard no, then I am not sure what I am doing here on earth.

2021 orange level member link


Stupid scientists not knowing the outcome at the beginning.


Posted: Apr 27, 2020, 7:22 AM
 

WHAT THE HECK ARE THEY EVEN PAID FOR?

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Why do I doubt you missed the point?


Posted: Apr 27, 2020, 7:57 AM
 

20% of the deaths are at nursing homes, thousands of the deaths counted didn't result from the virus which also skews the death rate. Many now believe the accurate death rate is between .01 and .02%. counted

The point was that for most states a shutdown was an overreaction. Thus, states are now producing data which shows that and are justified in opening businesses and going on with life.

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Re: Stupid scientists not knowing the outcome at the beginning.

[1]
Posted: Apr 27, 2020, 8:02 AM
 

they better be correct. if you are going to put 24 million out of work and wreck an economy, you better be a little more sure of your predictions.

you are smarter than your flippant response.

2021 orange level member link


Re: What were the original models predicting?

[2]
Posted: Apr 27, 2020, 7:55 AM
 

The models have been a complete joke all along and every since Coronavirus came about in the US, the left is using it to bash Trump.

If he shut down in January they would all say he's Hitler.

If he did what he did, then he is responsible for the deaths of Americans.

I mean you had prominent democrats urging people to go out in FEBRUARY to combat racism that are now saying that blood is on Trumps hands. Absurd.

The models showed 1-2 million WITH social distancing. It has been revised to 60k. How absurd.

People's lives are being destroyed based on models that have been wrong.

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