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Topic: Covid19 Death Data Explained
Replies: 44   Last Post: Sep 6, 2020, 4:24 PM by: jeancooper®
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Covid19 Death Data Explained

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 9:21 AM
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For those who have been confused by misinformation about Covid death rates, I have been subscribed to Medcram.com, who provides continuing education credits for doctors and medical professionals. They have made regular videos during this pandemic to update professionals on studies about treatments, disease progression, and all studies on Covid19. These videos are available on Youtube for free. Go to Youtube and search for Medcram, Update 106

For an explanation of the causes of death, where CDC lists only 6% of Covid19 deaths as caused by Covid only; go listen to the video. Caution, you Covid19 deniers will be shocked, but here is the question which will be answered. "Has the overall average death rate from all causes increased during the pandemic?" Hopefully we can all agree that any increase is likely attributed to the pandemic.

Enjoy real scientific explanations and not social media or even mainstream media.

Finally check out Update 100 to hear a review of previous updates and then you can follow from update 100 forward to understand how this virus works and about real treatments.

God Bless and keep you as safe as you would like.

Message was edited by: NCTiger75®


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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

[2]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 9:57 AM
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No. I don't think you will find universal agreement that a higher death rate has been caused by the Pandemic. The higher death rate has been caused by the REACTION and ACTIONS taken in response to the Pandemic. The higher suicide rates, higher drug overdose rates have not been caused by COVID. They and people's lives being turned upside down were caused by the REACTION (or overreaction) to this Virus. There's a fundamental difference there.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:12 AM
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Did you watch the video? Death rates in UK nearly double in April/June time frame and have since somewhat reduced. If death rate increase is due to suicides, reaction, etc., Why did it reduce when cases reduced. It should have stayed at peak.

I agree many of the government measures are illogical and stupid, but don't deny the realities of of the virus just because the government shutdowns were poorly conceived.

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OTOH we had a massive decrease in trauma-related

[1]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:24 AM
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deaths during the shutdown which gradually increased back towards normal rates as things opened back up.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

[1]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 12:05 PM
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Dude there are hundreds of thousands of what the CDC terms "excess deaths" so far this year. The vast majority of these deaths happened in April, which means they were not due to "suicides and overdoses".

Just for reference, even if suicides happened to jump 50% this year, that would only be an increase of 20,000/year. A 50% increase in drug overdose deaths would be an increase of 30,000, and part of those are suicide anyway.

So even dealing with hugely unrealistic increases of 50% (which it's more likely an increase of 5-10%), only accounts for ~50,000 in a total year, whereas we've seen an increase of ~250,000 deaths in the last 6 months over average numbers.

Again, I'm not surprised that people that follow conspiracy theories are bad at math, so that's why I wanted to help out

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This country needs perspective.


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 2:23 PM
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This country needs perspective.... My daughter works for the FBI. The facts are that a child under the age of 15 is abducted on average every 40 seconds in this country. Yes most are by family members, but when you run the math there are thousands that are never reunited with their families. Guess what is happening to them. The Sex trade. When only 320 people under the age of 24 have died in the US TOTAL due to covid, (and most also smoked or Vaped) we should be focusing more on stopping the thousands of missing children that never come home and other things that affect this country more.

So until this country starts to want to stop the abduction of thousands of children each each year for the sex trade, I could give a crap if people are afraid of Covid. Wash your hands, social distance, sneeze into your elbow and stop panicking over this.

Spot the ### ball.

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Are you trying to tell me that 788,400 children are


Posted: Sep 6, 2020, 1:07 AM
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abducted every year in the US? I can’t buy that garbage.

Where did you get that stat from? Please share so I can enlighten myself to the facts.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 6, 2020, 4:24 PM
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I lost my father to the virus a month ago. He was perfectly heathy and working the race track at a 140 degrees. People come to help him clean up the track and someone gave the virus to him. He tested positive one day went to hospital and died 4 days later.

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Thanks for the info BUT...


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:11 AM
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...I hope there isn't an underlying implication in your poast suggesting that doctors and medical professionals don't have any biases that could pass through this information like "social media or even mainstream media"...

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Re: Thanks for the info BUT...

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:18 AM
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Did you bother to watch the video? This video was not created by or for political propaganda. It just simply explains by requests how death certificates are completed. Then it shows death rates in US and UK over last few years.

Draw you own conclusions, and I'm sure they are really are out to get you.

Message was edited by: NCTiger75®


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Re: Thanks for the info BUT...

[1]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 8:53 PM
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Why yes, I did watch the video, but the wording in your original post is the subject of my comment. Perhaps if you would consider looking at that instead of being so reactive to a healthy question and getting personal...

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:27 AM
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So how many covid deaths are from people who do NOT have pre-existing health conditions?

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:43 AM
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The death certificates don't seem to offer the data needed to determine this. I haven't seen any studies reported on Medcram which looked at it. I have only heard news media reports that preexisting conditions greatly increase likelihood of death. Also It seems to be widely accepted that based on the way the virus attacks the systems in the body that preexisting conditions in any of these systems would certainly create complications.

I'm very interested in whether my young and healthy grandkids have much risk, if any, of getting sick. I wonder if healthy football players have much risk of complications. However data does generally show younger healthy people can catch the virus but the numbers and severity is often lower.

Based on listening to hundreds of videos about data and studies, it seems healthy people are not immune from getting virus (pun intended) but many seem to fight off virus (with innate immune system, T-cells) before virus gets deeper into attacking the body systems. Some recover after 2-5 days of being sick at home. In this 2-5 day period, the ones who do not recover generally develop severe respiratory issues (pneumonia) and need hospitalization. Some of these recover, other develop blood system disorders causing clotting, etc., Many die when it gets to this level (like 50%).

There are different treatments for each stage of the virus, which has been a source of great confusion in the information. Some of the treatments are only effective at a certain stage and not effective in other stages.

Message was edited by: NCTiger75®


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LOL to answer my own question


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:50 AM
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Looks to me 1.6% people who have covid and die do NOT have pre-exhisting health conditions.

From CDC:
People with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease and diabetes were hospitalized six times as often as otherwise healthy individuals infected with the novel coronavirus during the first four months of the pandemic, and they died 12 times as often, according to a federal health report Monday.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/15/patients-with-underlying-conditions-were-12-times-more-likely-die-covid-19-than-otherwise-healthy-people-cdc-finds/


If 1% or the population gets covid only 1.6% (56,000) of them will die if they jave no pre-existing health conditions.

.

To put that into real numbers using CDC data:
Of the 6,170,000 total covid cases in the US 9,872 resulted in deaths from otherwise healthy people.

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Re: LOL to answer my own question

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:54 AM
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But it wouldn't be only 1% who get sick.

Even if you assume the 1.6%, that is dependent on access to full medical care. So lets take the flu for example. 8-10% of all Americans contract the flu each year. That is 30 million and 1.6% of otherwise healthy folks - or a half million. Worse, Covid is a lot more infectious than the flu where there is a level of herd immunity and vaccine. I think the flu vaccine is about 40-70% effective and 1/2 of the population gets the shot. Thus even with those measures, 10% of the population contracts the flu each year!

So approximately 20-50% of all non-elderly Americans have per-existing conditions. That is about 50-130 million people. That is a big risk right there and plays into the biggest issue

Covid's biggest and deadliest attribute is that the infection rate and with limited amount of control capacity(ie being infectious without clear symptoms). The mortality rate skyrockets when the severe cases do not have access to full medical care. ICUs can and have been overrun. You explain to someone why their life might be forfeit because the ICU are all in use. Who do you pick?

I have used this example before. My area has a population of 500,000 (akin to Greenville) and about 140 ICU beds as the start of 2020. Maybe they ticked up a bit in capacity but we still had an area nursing shortage. Lets just assumed they more than doubled their ICU capacity for the sake of the argument. 300 ICU units.

If 500,000 has an infection rate of 10%, that is 50,000 cases. If 10% of those are severe, and need hospitalization, then we need 5,000 beds. 1 in 5 of hospitalized need the ICU. So in my region, assuming a rather low infection rate of 10%, we would need 1,000 in ICU capacity just for covid.... not including ANY other illness that might need ICU. THAT is the Covid problem. If Covid hits 33% of the population, then we will need 3000+ ICU beds, we only have 300 all in. Likely we only have about 100 beds.

And if you want to see an interesting case, look at Italy vs Germany. During the peak outbreak period (before June 20th) Germany was looking at a mortality rate of under 5% for those treated, Italy was about 15%.

You can't just assume one % mortality rate and not address other variable as well.

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Re: LOL to answer my own question


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 12:07 PM
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Unfortunately ~ 75% of America has underlying health conditions.

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Given the number of US citizens with pre-existing health


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:28 AM
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conditions, I'm not sure that's 100% relevant. I understand where you are coming from, but when 70 million US citizens are categorized as "obese," as much as 10% of the population may have diabetes, god-knows-how-many smoked or were exposed to large amounts of 2nd-hand smoke growing up in houses with smokers, etc....

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The media prefers to report

emoji_events [5]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 10:46 AM
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Total cumulative deaths every day cause it makes the orange man look scary

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CNN keeps it perma-posted on their channel 24/7

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 5:40 PM
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Fearmonger much, CNN?

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained- my underlying health


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:10 AM
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condition is an allergy to death. BTW Medcram.com? That has to be a typo or a joke right?

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained- my underlying health


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:21 AM
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Not a joke. Medcram is a site for doctors getting continuing education credits so they can renew their license to practice medicine; therefore the name. It is basically online medical seminars which doctors pay to subscribe. The Covid19 updates began as a few informational videos meant for doctors but turned to free updates of latest treatments and understandings of how virus works. HTH

Message was edited by: NCTiger75®


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Great post. To summarize for folks, the 6% outrage thing

[4]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:43 AM
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was always nonsense. Under the comorbidies section of their data page, the CDC says that 6% of COVID deaths were in people where COVID was the ONLY listed cause. For example: if someone had an existing, manageable heart condition but died after getting COVID, they would have at least TWO causes of death and therefore wouldn't be in the 6%. They obviously died as a direct result of getting COVID-19, however. I believe another example would be if a healthy, no pre-exisiting cause person catches COVID, then develops pneumonia, one of the more common serious COVID complications, and dies, they would at least have COVID and pneumonia listed as their causes, also keeping them out of the 6%.

Basically, the folks spreading joy/outrage about the 6% thing have no idea what comorbidity is. I'm not saying every single death reported by the CDC was directly caused by COVID-19, but it's absolutely more than the 9,000 the 6%ers are saying.

Yet another example of knee-jerk "info" sharing without bothering to look into facts or science first.

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I think people can no longer accept facts they disagree with

[4]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 12:09 PM
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This myopic approach to reality is a main cause of the perpetuation of COVID19 in the US. Politicizing a virus is the height of hubris; claiming one party can better control a virus is laughable.

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I literally cannot think of a better way to describe

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 4:04 PM
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modern American politics than "People can no longer accept facts they disagree with".

It is absolutely perfect. And why I hate American politics.

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Re: Great post. To summarize for folks, the 6% outrage thing

[1]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 12:11 PM
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Exactly, the people that got all excited about this 6% number should also have been celebrating the fact that 0 people have died from AIDS and Cancer this year.

This is because people don't understand the difference between "Cause of death" and "mechanism of death"

Cause of death = gunshot wound to the chest
Mechanism of death = blood loss and cardiac arrest

In the example of COVID, COVID-19 is the cause of death, but you don't die from COVID-19, you die from Pneumonia or multiple organ failure. Same thing with AIDS and Cancer.

The world was a much simpler place when those with GEDs weren't spreading medical misinformation online

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Re: Great post. To summarize for folks, the 6% outrage thing


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 4:33 PM
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I’ve been saying this all along. Most of the people going on about COVID bring added to the death certificates have no idea how death certificates work. I’ve had two close family members die this year, and both of their death certificates list 5 or 6 causes of death. Neither had COVID as one of the causes btw.

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There is no doubt whatsoever that thousands of deaths are being attributed

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 4:42 PM
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to COVID where the virus was not the primary cause. No doubt whatsoever, and the CDC fully admits this.

I am not a virus conspiracy theorist, but one very important point to understand when disclaiming the death rate overstatement... One cannot simply say, "well deaths are up this year" without first acknowledging the rate of death in America has increased every year since at least 1900. You cannot lump the whole 2020 increase into, "see I told you so about COVID" debate.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/10/aging-boomers-deaths.html




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Re: There is no doubt whatsoever that thousands of deaths are being attributed


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 12:20 AM
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Thank you. This correlates well to the fact that 43% of all deaths related to COVID are of people with advanced age.

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Pig

Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

[2]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 4:48 PM
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MAN!!! I read these posts and there are an awful lot of guesses at the numbers out there.
I wonder how many Medicare and Medicaid fraud cases there are each year so doctors and hospitals can get paid? I may have to do some research on this. I would expect the Covid fraud is very similar. Follow the money.
Yeah yeah... I know... I'm part of the problem.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 4:49 PM
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Watched it. Scary stuff. But here’s the thing, is it worse than the alternative? How many people are dying of drug overdose and suicide? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.insider.com/cdc-11-percent-us-adults-seriously-considered-suicide-in-june-2020-8%3Famp


And what about our children? Covid has lower fatality for children than ordinary flu. Don’t the kids matter?

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Pig

Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

[1]
Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 5:18 PM
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IMO the kids have suffered the most during this "pandemic".
I really hate it for them. Never have children suffered so much from something that affects them so little.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 5:54 PM
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People die everyday for many reasons. Here's apples and apples how the U.S. is doing compared to the world. Liberals can spout the U.S. is the worst in the world, highest number of deaths, the sky is falling and Sleepy Joe has got to get us some PPE and respirators (sorry J.B., that was done already). You take out NY, NJ, and a couple other states and the U.S. wouldn't be on the list.

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You can't take out those "couple of states"

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 9:13 PM
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because we are the united states ofnamerica. What happens to one state can and should affect the reaction of the others because we're all in this together.

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Re: You can't take out those "couple of states"


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 9:51 AM
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Yes we are the U.S. but stupid is as stupid does. Sending COVID patients to nursing homes because of panic, killing thousands (5 figures in deaths as a result), then being lied to by the NY Governor did not help the situation.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 5:47 AM
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I wonder what that list would look like if you took out the hardest hit areas of the UK, Chile and Peru?

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 10:15 AM
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This would certainly be interesting to look at. However, it shouldn’t be overlooked how badly NY and NJ handled the virus, particularly with their policy around nursing homes. NY had a death rate of 180 per 100K- nearly double the country of Peru. These states severely skew the US totals. The troubling part to me is that, NY gets rave reviews from media on how well they did ‘beatIng’ the virus, while states who actually did a great job like FL (54 deaths per 100k with a disproportionately large elderly population) get dragged across the coals. Its this blatant misrepresentation of the facts by the media that causes people to distrust the reporting on the virus.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained

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Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:04 PM
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Great post. Might I add the attached graph showing weekly deaths in 2019 and 2020? The data CLEARLY shows an exponential increase in deaths in 2020 over 2019. If that isn't Covid, something else is causing a lot of extra deaths. This is data from the CDC as of July. I looked at the tabulated data; the quick drop off in the 2020 deaths is just where all states had not reported yet.

Too many people prefer to listen to ridiculous conspiracy theories from wackos rather than to think critically.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 4, 2020, 11:16 PM
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“Watch the video and make up your own mind. Unless you disagree with what I think.”

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 8:14 AM
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Great post. I talk to folks in other counties that have seen substantial and sustained reductions in cases and deaths. I hear one common thread from these folks. People in these countries listen to the medical community in their country. Folks in some countries said they listen to their government and in other countries they don’t trust the government. But they all felt that, in general, the population listens to the medical community. They don’t debate masks, PPE, etc. They trust the doctors. Conspiracy theories and covid deniers must be much less prevalent, because none of this was mentioned. Instead they mentioned common sense, cooperation, responsibility, patience, hard work and helping their neighbors. All these folks are successful business people, they are not nut case left wingers. Never did any of them mention politics. It was real simple for them. There’s a virus and they follow the lead of the medical community.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 9:42 AM
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How many of the other countries are really reporting the truth like China, Russia and even sime European countries. Is it counted as a COVID death in those countries when the person has 2 or more underlying conditions and suffers from multiple conditions, any one that would kill the individual. I doubt it and this is BS.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 11:13 AM
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Saddis, thank you, you prove my point. Many Americans question the statistics and doubt the advice of the medical community and as a result the virus has persisted more so here. In countries where the virus is not seen as a debatable topic folks are much more unified in efforts to curb the spread, hence those efforts are more successful, resulting in fewer cases, resulting in a stronger rebound in the economy. It’s really pretty simple.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 12:24 PM
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I agree that Americans are typically more skeptical of what the govmnt and national media tells them (and for good reason). Not sure if I agree with your conclusion on how much impact this has had on outcomes. Other than policies that protect the vulnerable and full on lockdown, there really isn’t much evidence of specific policies producing results. Basically everywhere that was successful ‘stopping‘ or slowing the virus saw upticks as soon as lockdowns were relaxed. Further, the leveling off or downtick in the virus within a population has not necessarily correlated with shutdown policies, but rather appear to have simply ‘run’ its course to a certain extent before leveling off. The level of seeding in a population and strain (European vs East Asian) has also played a significant roll in outcomes.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 1:26 PM
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We can compare different strains, seeding scenarios, lockdowns, data from the left, data from the right, data from scientists, but it’s clear that in America we are deeply divided. Some people doubt the efficacy of masks and social distancing and some people accept the recommendations of the medical community. We are deeply divided. I don’t have a stat that proves the division has hampered our efforts to fight the virus, but common sense indicates a more unified effort to follow the advice of the medical community would have been, and hopefully will be, a benefit.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 5, 2020, 7:16 PM
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I agree that we are politically divided and it stands to reason that the the virus arriving during an election year would cause in increase in politicization. There has also almost certainly been some Covid policy decisions made without basis on science or with a political end in mind. These two factors certainly impact how much the people will head the voices on the airways. However, I do not think the US has suffered any more or less based on ‘people mot listening to the experts’. Self preservation is a basic and powerful instinct and people will make make decisions based on personal risk assessment reliably most of time. Data from many spikes indicate a slowing of infection rate prior to lockdown policies having had tome to have an impact. This indicates one of two factors at play or some combination. People adjusting behavior based on increased risk assessment, and/or the virus reaching some level of community saturation and naturally beginning to wane. Albeit anecdotal, I know Ive seen an increase in carefulness in my community (increased mask wearing/ social distancing) when covid cases have been on the rise, and more relaxed behavior when there has been little or no local cases. I think that despite our belief that govmnt and ‘the experts’ may be the end all be all.. basic human nature (and nature in general) drives these outcomes more than any policy opinion could.

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Re: Covid19 Death Data Explained


Posted: Sep 6, 2020, 8:40 AM
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I don’t know if any town, county or state has reached community saturation and therefore is naturally beginning to wane. I don’t know if any health officials can arrive at that conclusion. But I think any sensible person would agree with your thought that people adjusting their behavior based on an increased risk assessment can result in a slowing of infection rate. And that is exactly what I’m saying. In a population where a very large majority of the population consistently adjusts their behavior, it seems to reason that the population will see a slowing of infection rate. In a population that is deeply divided, with some people adjusting behavior and some not, it seems to reason that the population will not see a consistent slowing of the infection rate, but instead will see more chaotic ups and downs with no trend and likely more cases in the long run. The pivotal issue being is the population divided in their approach or is the population mostly unified in adjusting behavior.

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