»
Topic: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??
Replies: 29   Last Post: Apr 1, 2020, 11:18 PM by: domino dave
This topic has been archived - replies are not allowed.


[ Archives - Tiger Boards Archive ]
Start New Topic
Replies: 29  

COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[4]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 5:58 AM
 

I don't want anyone to die from this virus. It's terrible - YES. But in the process, if the "Greater Depression" obliterates the U.S. & its economy, likely all but the top 1% will suffer greatly. Many will die or might prefer death.

A fair number of top economists from Stanford, other parts of America & around the world estimate that if the U.S. stops working & producing (except for Walmart, Amazon & a few others) for between 12-16 weeks, & it looks like we're on our way to doing just that (or longer), we likely won't be able to pull out of this.

Both small and large industries will fold up forever & the jobs they provide. Think of restaurants & hotels, the entire sports & entertainment industries, malls, furniture & clothing stores, car manufacturers - and more importantly - their suppliers. Most airlines. Who's going to travel when there're no business trips or vacations to take because there're no jobs & no paychecks? How 'bout teachers, schools & the jobs they provide? Go to school? For what?? Training for a job that doesn't exist?

It was put like this in this "global economy": We've outsourced so much manufacturing, why build a bunch of half-built cars if we can't get them off the assembly line 'cause we're waiting on steering wheels, etc., from China & S. Korea. With no U.S. market to sell stuff, THEIR economies tank too.

In the big pandemic of 1918, the U.S. population was 103-million. We lost between 170,000 & 675,000 Americans (counts were not so accurate then). But even taking the high number, that was a U.S. mortality rate of .65 of 1-percent. Shocking death totals, for sure. But we were in the middle of WWI. We didn't know the "Spanish Flu" was caused by a virus. We had many vaccines, but all based on bacteria. A few might have helped with secondary infections, but only a little. No ventilators. No antibiotics. We used quarantines & banned public gatherings in large cities, closed schools - but many businesses were left open. They staggered their shifts & hours they were open. Oddly, NYC had the lowest death rate on the Eastern seaboard. St. Louis - highest in America.

With COVID-19, even Dr. Fauci has scaled back his worst case estimated death toll in America to 100,000 - maybe 200,000 - STILL a huge number, but not close to the 3-to-9-million some once predicted.

Just to take it to an ultra-disastrous extreme, I took our March deaths - around 2,300 (the 1st recorded death in America was March 1) and increased the total by a factor of 1.6 for 13 months (through March 2021). If that occurred, the U.S. death total (aggregate) would be a gigantic 2,030,000! Even then, we would lose .61 of 1-percent of our 331-million people - - about the same death rate as the 1918 pandemic. And that would surely be a catastrophe. But if we crush the U.S. economy - and ruin the lives of nearly 325-million citizens (plus untold billions worldwide) - well, which is is the deadlier poison?


So, you're telling me that I should

[3]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 6:05 AM
 

stock up on 223 Remington?

2021 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: So, you're telling me that I should

[2]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 6:12 AM
 

Good luck finding .223 ammo, I personally do not need any but out of curiosity looked. OUT OF STOCK was bodly displayed on my usual go to places.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[3]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 7:16 AM
 

And if a meteor crashes into the earth-all life on the planet will be killed.Throughout history, anytime the market has run into a wall because of present technology, for instance, the ingenuity of a few took it to a new level. Our next level in computing will be quantum as the ability to make smaller circuit boards-ie faster processors-has reached a level that not much more is feasible with that technology but the big boys have plans.

In many ways, this is no different. A vaccine will be available-just a matter of when. It (COVID-19) can be almost eradicated over time if people cooperate. I.E. any millenials not wanting their kids to take measles vaccine have brought it back to us.

Things would improve if the estimated 20% who do not, would wash their hands after using the bathroom.

It will be a strange economy to be sure for a while. Whats really important is that Clemson makes everyone where masks into the stadium so the regular run down the HILL will begin.

2021 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg

Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[2]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 7:37 AM
 

Yep if 80,000 people wore masks in Death Valley for 3 1/2 hours in early September we’d have another 10,000 deaths of people trying to breath going to the upper decks.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[1]
Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 7:07 AM
 

Orange mask white paw or white mask orange paw ?

2021 purple level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

DB23


Moran ...... chrome masks with matte black Paw


Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 7:36 AM
 

Morning, Captain !

2021 orange level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg

Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 7:55 AM
 

Voice of reason but I'd challenge one point. Think the 20% hand washing is too low. I've worked in large work places and they're some nasty people out there.

As to huds post. I was raised (mid 60s) to always be fiscal responsibility. Kinda hard to feel sorry for those milinials and they're 60k trucks and suv's.

As to his other post, yes, a lot of people are and will be out of work but this is not the 29 stock crash. This won't drag on for years. They're a lot of restaurants that may go belly up but others will spring up. CEO's are stepping up.

There's an awful lot of celebrities out there that could step up in big ways. You'll see an explosion in health care and manufacturing in the US. You're not going to get kicked out of your house or get your lights turned off.

I'd suggest take your 1200 or 2400 check and eat cheap and save all for food instead of running out and buying a new 100 inch TV.

2021 orange level member2016_pickem_champ.jpg

Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[2]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 11:12 AM
 

I’m technically a millennial and I’ve worked, earned, saved, and financed responsibly. I graduated college into the Great Recession of 2008/09 that was caused by you “responsible boomers”. My career is going fantastic at the moment, but I just now got past the giant ######## that the boomers put us in by ruining the most powerful economy in the history of the world. I understand your frustration with millennials because most of the time I’m embarrassed to be one. I have more in common with my grandfather’s generation than I do with the early 20 years olds of today, but for some reason we are lumped into the same category. We can all point fingers, but fact of the matter is: if your generation would have planned better and not believed you could finance your way into retirement; y’all might have retired by now and opened all the good jobs that are backlogged with white-hairs past their prime. There is a pile-up of kids with degrees that are waiting to get entry level jobs. They can’t because the gen x crowd is still in them, waiting to move up once the boomers retire. It’s all a big cycle.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 5:45 AM
 

LemonTiger said:

I’m technically a millennial and I’ve worked, earned, saved, and financed responsibly. I graduated college into the Great Recession of 2008/09 that was caused by you “responsible boomers”. My career is going fantastic at the moment, but I just now got past the giant ######## that the boomers put us in by ruining the most powerful economy in the history of the world. I understand your frustration with millennials because most of the time I’m embarrassed to be one. I have more in common with my grandfather’s generation than I do with the early 20 years olds of today, but for some reason we are lumped into the same category. We can all point fingers, but fact of the matter is: if your generation would have planned better and not believed you could finance your way into retirement; y’all might have retired by now and opened all the good jobs that are backlogged with white-hairs past their prime. There is a pile-up of kids with degrees that are waiting to get entry level jobs. They can’t because the gen x crowd is still in them, waiting to move up once the boomers retire. It’s all a big cycle.



Wow... Great post!! So true.

2021 white level member

Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 11:18 PM
 

You just did what you complained about: Lumped 20 years of people together. I also suggest that you research the 2008-2009 collapse a bit more. It was a perfect storm of calamity. The sub-prime loan portion was driven by bleeding hearts that felt everyone deserved a home mortgage, despite the would be homeowners not understanding the concept of saving a 20% down payment. They wanted it now!!! The govt and institutions gave it them—— 100% financing. I remember seeing 103% financing, where you walk away with cash in your pocket. This occurred in the 3-5 years leading up to 2008, and the primary purchasers were in their 30’s. Yep. That would be people born in the 70’s.
Every one has dirty fingers.
By the way: I worked 20+ years with a corporation before achieving a Senior Manager position at age 56. Put in your dues, and respect the effort and wisdom of those before you. I plan on working until full retirement age (67)..... and deserve to do so.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 7:58 AM
 

Agree whole heartedly with you. The media reports are not focused on how in many states the rate of infection is significantly lowering.

The constant media hysteria has really caused it to get in the heads of Americans where now we are being so over cautious that our economy will surely fail.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:40 AM
 

I guess you just want to open up the mid west and flood our crumbling rural health care system. Please people, do some extensive research and listen to the medical experts yourself and not just news sound bites. Thanks.

2021 orange level member2016_pickem_champ.jpg

This will become a classic case study in ethical decisions

[3]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:00 AM
 

There is no right answer. Current quarantine/isolation was essential to allow medical system to prepare. I personally think in a few weeks we need to let people move freely but smart and keep gatherings above a certain number banned. Those at risk need to be more cautious.

I keep hoping to hear the big break through. We have a lot of really smart people working nonstop. It's only a matter of time.

2021 student level member

Re: This will become a classic case study in ethical decisions

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:30 AM
 

The only problem with it is that there are no true parameters as to who is at risk and who is not. Covid-19 is not that selective.

2021 purple level member

"It is not part of a true culture to tame tigers any more than it is to make sheep ferocious."
--Henry David Thoreau


Re: This will become a classic case study in ethical decisions

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:36 AM
 

Another voice of reason that actually listen to what's being said and not news commentary.

2021 orange level member2016_pickem_champ.jpg

I don't think people are thinking about the downstream and

[4]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:38 AM
 

effects if this lasts much longer.

For example, I work for a company that sells software to physicians and other medical providers. The last 2 days of last week - when it became apparent this wasn't ending anytime soon, we became flooded with requests to cancel or put their monthly service on hold. Surgeons, Podiatrists, Physical Therapists, and others are shutting their doors or reducing their staff and hours by 90% to only provide emergency care. Even regular family practice doctors that don't work in hospitals are closing or massively reducing hours as there are only so many things they can treat over the phone.

So our company starts losing revenue and our CEO starts laying off. More people on unemployment. More mortgages and rent not getting paid. More kids not going to college.

And before you go off on "rich doctors", many of them are not rich. They're paying back loans for medical school and mortgages on their practices and equipment. They will get wiped out if they have to pay full expenses but aren't seeing patients.

While it's not people jumping off bridges yet, I am seeing a lot of doctors closing permanently. They were close to retirement or plan to go to work for a hospital when this is all over.

Our country was built on small businesses, whether it is a restaurant, hair dresser or doctor. We need to find a way, as safely as possible, for them to open their businesses.


Re: ^^this x100


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:59 AM
 

Nurses not getting paid?

Nurse aren't indentured servants. It is totally ethical to walk away from an employer who doesn't or can't pay you.


Re: I don't think people are thinking about the downstream and


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 9:04 AM
 

You are so right 81. It's not just the doctor themselves, but all the support staff. And all the suppliers. It's a way to do it, but you'd have to have the ppe.

2021 orange level member2016_pickem_champ.jpg

Re: I don't think people are thinking about the downstream and


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 9:04 AM
 

You are so right 81. It's not just the doctor themselves, but all the support staff. And all the suppliers. It's a way to do it, but you'd have to have the ppe.

2021 orange level member2016_pickem_champ.jpg

Many share these concerns.***

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 8:54 AM
 



nullbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 9:02 AM
 

I completely agree with you. However, you have to look at the other side of the devastating loss that will occur and is occurring to the first responders. What good is there in having a business when there is no police force? No firemen. No Army, Navy, Air Force etc to protect the US. North Korea is already firing missiles. No EMTs. And no hospitals. No doctors or nurses to treat you if you get in an accident, have a heart attack, repair that tendon, etc. Those areas need to get stabilized first in my opinion.


I am not proposing a free for all


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 9:13 AM
 

But there has to be a way to get most people back to work and most businesses open. I would rather see 10-20% of us locked down, including me who has severe persistent asthma and is late 50's, than see the whole economy crumble. How is our health going to be in 6 months when people can't go to their doctor? How many more deaths?

Get the PPE to the first responders and all hospital workers, then all doctors and dentists, then people who have been cleared (no symptoms, no known exposure and not in a hot spot). Then start expanding. Until there is a vaccine we will all need to wear a mask for life to get back to anything close to normal.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 9:31 AM
 

I am with you 100%. The cure will be worse than the virus itself. We are committing suicide in the name of saving lives - makes no sense! I believe in the next week or two areas that are not being as hard hit should be "open for business." If you are tracking the number of cases and deaths, it seems to have leveled out somewhat. We are no longer doubling every couple of days. Yesterday the number of cases and deaths dropped drastically from previous days. Not sure if this is a trend or not however we need to keep our eyes on it. It's like we are killing the "goose that lays the golden eggs" Without the goose we cannot afford to fight the virus - that just cannot be!


An alternate opinion from all the doom and gloomer reports

[1]
Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 11:00 AM
 

https://www.oann.com/stanford-univ-researchers-say-evidence-shows-u-s-will-recover-from-covid-19-faster-than-expected/


2021 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 11:31 AM
 

They can’t keep it shut much longer than April we can’t fork out 6T a month in funny money. But the debate is still in the phase where you aren’t allowed to discuss opening or you don’t care about the casualties and/or “you aren’t listening to the doctors”.

One we can have rational discussion again, along with people being trapped for some more weeks, things will start to loosen. But we are still stuck in emotion phase.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Mar 30, 2020, 11:31 AM
 

They can’t keep it shut much longer than April we can’t fork out 6T a month in funny money. But the debate is still in the phase where you aren’t allowed to discuss opening or you don’t care about the casualties and/or “you aren’t listening to the doctors”.

One we can have rational discussion again, along with people being trapped for some more weeks, things will start to loosen. But we are still stuck in emotion phase.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 12:59 PM
 

You do realize that Fauci's estimations have changed BECAUSE of social distancing, right? We are essentially locked down for 2 months and the death total will still be >100,000 by Summer.

If we were going about in a "relatively normal" situation, the death toll would be many times that


How many different posts do we need on


Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 1:02 PM
 

THIS EXACT SAME TOPIC IN THIS EXACT (WRONG) BOARD?

2021 white level member

Run along Stewart, before I get bored of behavin'.


Re: COVID-19 - Awful! But Crush the Economy Too??


Posted: Apr 1, 2020, 1:27 PM
 

I don't think we are on course to have a 12-16 week shutdown. I saw some predictions (CDC, I think) that showed deaths peaking in mid to late April in most states. I would expect the infection rates lead death rates, so infecton rates would be peaking a little before that. That is one criterium for relaxing restrictions, the other being real time testing.

The fact that the death estimates changed are not a reflection of the quality of the model, they are a reflection of changing conditions, i.e., social isolation. I'm not sure if that was your implication; if it wasn't, I apologize. I have seen many people try to cast doubts on epidemiology by pointing st changing estimates.


Replies: 29  

TIGER TICKETS

FB GAME: Season Tickets
FOR SALE: (4) Section J row S...$3600. Email if interested. Go Tigers!!

Buy or Sell CU Tickets and More in Tiger Tickets!

[ Archives - Tiger Boards Archive ]
Start New Topic
2998 people have read this post