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Topic: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?
Replies: 33   Last Post: Nov 4, 2020, 9:16 AM by: TheProdigal
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Replies: 33  

Help me out here guys. What am I missing?


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:35 AM
    Reply

if all of the leans become solid in the direction they are leaning, this is where we are. What am I missing?


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


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You have PA and GA as red.

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:36 AM
    Reply

They are VERY much up in the air.

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MauldinT, where are you???


Who would have every thought Georgia wouldn't be


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:37 AM
    Reply

deep red?

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Re: Who would have every thought Georgia wouldn't be


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:40 AM
    Reply

GA has been trending bluer and bluer every election cycle. Non-stop influx of people from California and the Northeast due to low cost of living and strong economy. They are bringing the politics they fled with them.


me


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:03 AM
    Reply

that's why I moved :)


Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:37 AM
    Reply

Michigan. Most predictions are Biden wins it.

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Wow. If GA and PA goes to Trump


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
    Reply

and Mich goes to Joe

Then Joe wins BY 2 EC VOTES

WHAT THE ####

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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
    Reply

Lets start with voter fraud maybe that is what you are missing.


When did WI go blue?


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
    Reply

When I went to bed it was a pretty good red lean by a percent or two. Full admission, have checked nothing this morning

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Well, this morning.

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:39 AM
    Reply

Votes came in from Milwaukee. To be fair, it's not "Blue" yet. No one has called it. But the Vice President now leads by a small amount.


Funny thing about Milwaukee,

[3]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:40 AM
    Reply

It’s Algonquin for “the good land”. Did you know that?

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No, I had forgotten most of my Algonquin.

[2]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:41 AM
    Reply

Cool beans.


Re: Funny thing about Milwaukee,.....point

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:47 AM
    Reply

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRCTc6stICc

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it literally went up 300k out of nowhere. it was crazy***


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:46 AM
    Reply



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Re: it literally went up 300k out of nowhere. it was crazy***


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:59 AM
    Reply

X

300K is an awful lot, but as mail-in and absentee ballots are counted, I think you will see a number of significant jumps in tallies in a number of states over the next few days.


not suggesting any nepharious. just 1 minute, Trump was


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:11 AM
    Reply

up 4%. Next minute, he was down.

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It did indeed happen that way.


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:16 AM
    Reply

Milwaukee area turned in a big chunk.


Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
    Reply

I'm thinking 270 to 264 lol

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Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:02 AM
    Reply

I'm think you are missing a few votes in your total there.


Michigan and PA could very easily turn blue by the time

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:38 AM
    Reply

they are done counting...

GA is still up in the air - many uncounted "city" votes.

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Michigan looks likely to flip.


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:39 AM
    Reply

That's the difference, and potentially the only difference that matters. The lead for the President is shrinking, and most seem to think it will go the other way now.


FWIW, the President's lead has held around 27,000 votes


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:53 AM
    Reply

For the last hour or more, even as more results creep in. So the hemorrhaging stopped, for now.


There it goes: now down to 15,000.***


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:04 AM
    Reply




Election fraud***


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:39 AM
    Reply



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Please forgive me, @IneligibleUser


Flip GA to Biden and Biden wins 270-268


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:42 AM
    Reply

Expect a strongly contested GA count if that happens. Fulton and DeKalb still haven’t turned in their numbers after a mysterious water main break at 1 precinct.


Stacey Abrams will make sure they’re all counted. No worries***

[2]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:59 AM
    Reply



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I'm seeing people say PA will flip if the current

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:46 AM
    Reply

data on absentee ballots holds (if the remaining absentee votes to be counted are the same proportion to VP Biden as the ones that have already been counted). It's a mighty big margin right now, though.


Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?

[1]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:56 AM
    Reply

538 does not have the traditional blue/red map, but they have people dedicated to each of the states still in play live blogging about the county details of votes still to be counted. i have found it very good at helping me understand local trends.

You might want to check it out.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/



it's looking good for your candidate.......


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 8:58 AM
    Reply

margins in GA, Michigan, & NC razor thin.

general thinking is that the democratic cities in those states haven't been counted which will go Biden and/or the mail-in hasn't been counted which will go 65/35 biden.

Once AZ flipped to Biden I turned it off.


What's left are the mail-in ballots

[3]
Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:02 AM
    Reply

Those break 2/3 to Biden, roughly. Depending on the margins, that is what is keeping these states in play, and is exactly what Trump knew would happen. Dems want to avoid the covid (with good reason) and vote by mail far more than Trump voters.

Now the Sun Belt states have rules that they can count mail in votes early. So when Texas and FL appeared dem leaning early, that was the mailin vote count showing up before in person votes. The in person votes were then tallied and that pushed Trump ahead.

The states in play now have rules that mailin votes can not be counted until election day. They can't start early. As such, those states finish tallying their in person votes first, and what's left are the mail-in ballots. Those break 2/3 (average) for Biden.

Most of what is left at this point will favor an increase for Biden in close states. Is that enough to make up the difference? It certainly COULD be. And evidently by 2:30am Trump knew this and did his dog and pony speech, which was a very bad idea.

So we go to the courts. So what happens? Well, IMO Trump has a MUCH greater legal hurdle than Algore did in 2000. Algore et. al. wanted a recount. And then a recount of the recount. Mailin votes were not a factor then. But what Trump is asking is for counting to stop, for votes NOT to be counted, and as such that's a much larger hurdle for a court to rule in favor of IMO. The court will err on the side of bending to the rules to ensure every vote is counted over bending the rules to make sure some votes are excluded. He will have to manufacture some standing first, and that alone will be difficult.

This is why these states are in play much more than Florida was in 2000.

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Re: What's left are the mail-in ballots


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:08 AM
    Reply

Tiggity,

Excellent analysis. I would only add that a significant number of votes yet to be counted are also in the larger cities in the states still in question. i would expect urban votes to favor Biden as well.

538 is doing some good reporting on the more local aspects of the races in those states.


Re: Help me out here guys. What am I missing?


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:09 AM
    Reply

Apparently millions of people decided they were for higher taxes, higher energy costs, higher unemployment, terrible trade deals, bending over for China, Antifa, cancel culture, Marxism, looting, arson, riots, open borders, and no second amendment. Beats me how that's a winning platform but it is more solid proof that leftism is a mental illness. I hope I'm wrong but it's looking like at least four years of a Harris administration. Hope I can make it without being executed by a deranged leftist for a thought crime.


Because Trump was that bad of a president***


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:10 AM
    Reply



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Biden has already taken the lead in MI


Posted: Nov 4, 2020, 9:10 AM
    Reply

Expect more flips as mail-ins are counted.

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