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Topic: From a physician's perspective...
Replies: 12   Last Post: Nov 23, 2020, 8:25 AM by: Row86®
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From a physician's perspective...

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Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:15 PM
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And one who made the trip to tally for the game only to have to turn and drive the same 5 hour drive the next morning, it's interesting to note that, statistically, it's more likely (even with a 30% false negative rate of some of the rapid tests) that the one positive result for this kid is a false positive than that 4 negatives , while the patient was symptomatic, were all false negatives. And the Florida State physicians should have recognized this. While still possible this kid has covid, statistically it's way more likely the friday test was a false + than that the other FOUR were false -

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Re: From a physician's perspective...


Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:17 PM
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Thanks for sharing thoughts. I knew there are some reasonable physicians out there.


Of course

[3]
Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:35 PM
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I'm certainly a believer in the severity of this disease for some... but I also am a realist in that I believe shutting the world (or CFB, or restaurants or ...) down in the name of it isn't justified. And for me that's evidence based and an honest professional and personal opinion on the matter.

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Re: From a physician's perspective...

[1]
Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:27 PM
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Thanks for your view point! Follow the data!!!!


Re: From a physician's perspective...


Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:34 PM
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Wonder if CU will announce the Monday test results for the 1 player.


Re: From a physician's perspective...

[1]
Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:37 PM
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I'm VERY interested in those results. To find out if the statistical likelihood is correct or if he indeed does have the virus. Intellectual curiosity has me needing these answers.

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In fact, Andrew Cohen, PhD, in an article on Nov 9th found

[3]
Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:47 PM
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“So, with a 1-percent infection rate in the test population, a false-positive rate of only 0.5 percent leads to nearly 40 percent of the positive results being wrong.”


Re: In fact, Andrew Cohen, PhD, in an article on Nov 9th found


Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 9:55 PM
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While the presence of symptoms decreases the likelihood of false positives, the preponderance of the evidence from FOUR negative tests suggests a statistical likelihood of genuinely negative clinical status. He definitely could have covid but statistics raise a high likelihood of negative clinical status at least

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Re: From a physician's perspective...


Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 10:08 PM
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Re: From a physician's perspective...

[1]
Posted: Nov 22, 2020, 11:47 PM
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Sounds plausible even if you weren't a physician.... common sense leads to the same probability.


Re: From a physician's perspective...

[1]
Posted: Nov 23, 2020, 12:40 AM
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yup. Better to have false positives than false negatives, so all tests are skewed to error on the positive side.


The FSU administrators who cancelled this game...


Posted: Nov 23, 2020, 8:18 AM
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weren't interested in protocol, logic, facts, deductive reasoning or anything else. They were hellbent and determined to postpone or cancel the game and it is abundantly clear that was their SOLE focus.

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Can any statisticians confirm?***


Posted: Nov 23, 2020, 8:25 AM
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