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Topic: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...
Replies: 32   Last Post: Aug 8, 2019, 1:14 PM by: allinallorangeallthetime52®
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Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...

emoji_events [31]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 9:41 AM
 

Using CBS rankings, since they're typically SEC game of the week, too...

Clemson vs #90 Ga Tech Bama vs #63 Duke
Clemson vs #14 Texas A&M Bama vs #128 New Mexico State
Clemson @ #20 Syracuse Bama @ #45 U of SC
Clemson vs #117 Charlotte Bama vs #85 Southern Miss
Clemson @ #93 UNC Bama vs #72 Ole Miss
Clemson vs #38 FSU Bama @ #14 Texas AM
Clemson @ #96 Louisville Bama vs #58 Tennessee
Clemson vs #57 Boston College Bama vs #91 Arkansas
Clemson vs #UR Wofford Bama vs # 6 LSU
Clemson @ #41 NC State Bama @ #32 Mississippi State
Clemson vs #52 Wake Forest Bama vs #UR Western Carolina
Clemson @ #45 U of SC Bama @ #15 Auburn

Avg Opp Rank - 60 Avg Opp Rank - 55

Looks more like a skinned knee, to me.

2021 orange level member

The only reason theirs is rated harder at all from this is

emoji_events [19]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 9:48 AM
 

the artificially superior preseason rankings always given to SEC teams.

When two mediocre teams meet in the SEC, it is a battle of juggernauts.

When two equally mediocre teams meet in the ACC, it is a battle of mediocre teams.

When two REALLY mediocre teams meet, it is South Carolina vs North Carolina.
(Although the Mac Daddy may surprise us all, Depends!)

(This has been a free advertisement for Depends!)

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Re: The only reason theirs is rated harder at all from this is

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 10:19 AM
 

Year in - year out, they have multiple 3 loss teams in the top 10.


Re: The only reason theirs is rated harder at all from this is

[3]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:17 AM
 

Yup. The SEC is wayyyyy over inflated every year.

Watch the USuCk v Ole Miss game the other night. It was no different than watching Duke v Wake. And neither defense knew how to tackle.


Bingo***


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 10:41 AM
 



2021 white level member

Re: The only reason theirs is rated harder at all from this is


Posted: Aug 8, 2019, 1:14 PM
 

That's exactly what I was thinking looking over that list, Bama plays against better/tougher opponents bc of conference affiliation only!!! The SEC Giant's ;), playing against the Giant Slayer as in Bama, and it helps Bama to be a lot better battle tested, but it also causes them to be to tired to play in post games!!! Battle tested SEC teams equals being to tire for post season playoff. I guess they should go to the old ways of doing things, and that is appointing the best SEC team that year as the National Champions, and everything in college FB will be good again says the SEC homers. They did become loyal SEC homers for a reason, they were appointed Nation Champions year in and year out without ever having to prove it on the field, and if they have to play, it was against another appointed team that they was sure what ever SEC could beat with very few disappointments of them losing bc of being so tired!!!

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I thought a strong schedule battle tests a team.

[3]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 9:53 AM
 

Iron sharpens iron, the Bama way, etc. I suppose if we are fortunate enough to make the CFP and beat them again, is it safe to say iron dulls iron?


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 10:24 AM
 

Great breakdown, thanks for sharing.


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 12:31 PM
 

Yahtzee!! Its been my beef with SEC apologists for years. Pre-bowl season talk is "SEC gauntlet prepares teams for postseason play against teams who had cake walk to the end". Oops Bama or UGA loses a postseason game.....Ummmm well they were so beaten and bloodied from their gauntlet schedule. I suppose I should commend P Fbomb that he has his postseason excuse loaded and ready to go in early August this season.


Paul is a lot like a uof5c fan...

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 10:28 AM
 

Facts will only confuse him and will, therefore, be summarily ignored or dismissed as irrelevant anti-(inset your agenda here) rhetoric.

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...

emoji_events [5]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 10:34 AM
 

Maybe Bama wouldn't be so beat up if they took the starters out before they scored 70 points.


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:04 AM
 

The only real knock we have against our schedule is that we do not have a "challenger" in our own conference/division since FSU is in the toilet and Syracuse is rebuilding at QB. NC State is kinda a soggy biscuit, UofL is a cast-off WVU couch fire, and so when Wake and BC are the 'healthiest' programs, we are not going to get any love. Add on the coastal woes with VT and Miami being garbage, yeah, the ACC is lacking any potential challenger.

Now the irony is this: you have issues when you have the B10, SEC, and PAC12 with only two decent teams and garbage below appears to be "healthier". They are not but the ACC has a lot of good mid-level teams, or rather the bottom is a lot stronger right now (See Duke, UVA, Wake) and the middle isn't bad (Pitt, BC, Cuse), but we lack that #2 team that make the conference look strong. Thus you have weaker teams looking better with 9 or so wins that would be garbage elsewhere (looking at you NC State).


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:28 AM
 

I would purpose that Taggart has put out the trash fire at FSU and will have them a lot batter this year. They will have a good chance to come into DV with an undefeated team and an itch to get over the last two years against us. We know they have the athletes. Do not take them for granted. They may pull another Winston out of their hat. This game may become interesting.


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:47 AM
 

IF FSU wins 9 games next season, Taggart is the Dodd recipient.

FSU still has some talent, but it isn't as deep as it was 2 years ago and there is a lot. I expect Hornibrook to be the QB but he is a interception risk game manager. Keep it simple for him and hand ti off... otherwise when he has to play from behind, it is a game over problem. Briles will be good but will take a season to get the pieces rolling. Will the o-line be anything? Not sure.

Defensively, FSU is not what it was. They lost their best option early for the NFL and their returning players were not FSU caliber with a weak pass rush and inconsistent run defense. Worse, especially against Clemson, they give up BIG plays frequently. That, with inconstancy, suggest some lack of depth as the rotation happens.

I would be surprised to see FSU with 3 wins entering death valley. Being 2-3 (loses to UVA, BSU, and NC State) is on the table. I think they will eek out 6-7 wins, 8 with surprisingly good showing. But with Clemson, Florida, BSU, and Miami (Diaz will be better) ... any other slip-up against UVA, NCSU or otherwise will make it an ugly year.


More than half the difference is Auburn 23 better than FSU &

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:13 AM
 

Ole Miss 18 better than GT. Really splitting hairs.
We both have 7 games "easier" than USuCk. Those don't matter. We both play A&M.
That leaves - #6 LSU / #20 Syracuse -- #15 Auburn / #38 FSU -- #32 Miss St. / #41 NC State
3 games. and would we really care if we were playing Miss St. instead of NC State?

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The Dude abides


Re: More than half the difference is Auburn 23 better than FSU &


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 12:24 PM
 

Due to a lack of disparity in the top levels of college football it's kinda irrelevant whether we are playing Syracuse or NC State. FPI actually favors us more over Syracuse than NC State 93.7 vs 93.4. Alabama will face 4 opponents that could reasonably win without extraordinary circumstances before the playoff(LSU, Gerogia, Texas A&M, Auburn). We will only face 1 (Texas A&M). You could exchange any team outside of the top 15 with Charlotte on our schedule and it wouldn't noticeably affect our projected win percentage. But you exchange Syracuse for Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State, or Michigan and it's a different story.

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Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:18 AM
 

Good numbers Salty. My guess is that you didn't factor W Carolina into the average since they are UR. Add them in somehow and the schedules are pretty dang even.


Wofford was also not included in the average.

[2]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:23 AM
 

Really comes down to 2 games. They play LSU and Auburn, we play Syracuse and FSU. The rest is a complete wash.

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The Dude abides


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:35 AM
 

Rearranging this a bit for a slightly different view

Clemson vs #14 Texas A&M Bama vs #6 LSU
Clemson @ #20 Syracuse Bama @ #14 Texas AM
Clemson vs #38 FSU Bama @ #15 Auburn
Clemson @ #41 NC State Bama @ #32 Mississippi State
Clemson @ #45 U of SC Bama @ #45 U of SC
Clemson vs #52 Wake Forest Bama vs #58 Tennessee
Clemson vs #57 Boston College Bama vs #63 Duke
Clemson vs #90 Ga Tech Bama vs #72 Ole Miss
Clemson @ #93 UNC Bama vs #85 Southern Miss
Clemson @ #96 Louisville Bama vs #91 Arkansas
Clemson vs #117 Charlotte Bama vs #128 New Mexico State
Clemson vs #UR Wofford Bama vs #UR Western Carolina

And just the scheduled OOC games:

Clemson vs # 14 Texas A&M
Clemson @ # 45 U of SC
Clemson vs # 117 Charlotte
Clemson vs # UR Wofford

Bama vs # 63 Duke
Bama vs # 85 Southern Miss
Bama vs # 128 New Mexico State
Bama vs # UR Western Carolina

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Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 12:45 PM
 

Since I was trying to show the two first-best opponents, then the two second-best opponents...it seems reasonable to look at the difference. So here, the notation (Bama +8) means that their first-best opponent is ranked 8 place higher than our first-best opponent.

Clemson vs #14 Texas A&M Bama vs #6 LSU (Bama +8)
Clemson @ #20 Syracuse Bama @ #14 Texas AM (Bama +6)
Clemson vs #38 FSU Bama @ #15 Auburn (Bama +23)
Clemson @ #41 NC State Bama @ #32 Mississippi State (Bama +9)
Clemson @ #45 U of SC Bama @ #45 U of SC (even)
Clemson vs #52 Wake Forest Bama vs #58 Tennessee (Clemson +6)
Clemson vs #57 Boston College Bama vs #63 Duke (Clemson +6)
Clemson vs #90 Ga Tech Bama vs #72 Ole Miss (Bama +18)
Clemson @ #93 UNC Bama vs #85 Southern Miss (Bama +8)
Clemson @ #96 Louisville Bama vs #91 Arkansas (Bama +5)
Clemson vs #117 Charlotte Bama vs #128 New Mexico State (Clemson +11)
Clemson vs #UR Wofford Bama vs #UR Western Carolina (ignored)

So, yeah, most of Bama's N-th best opponents are ranked higher (today) than Clemson's N-th best opponents, but not by THAT much up and down the schedule. The biggest exception is that Bama's 3rd-best opponent Auburn is 23 places higher than Clemson's 3rd-best opponent FSU. I discount the +18 and +11 entries, because they basically offset and that far down in the rankings is there really any difference? I mean, is Ga Tech really exactly 18 notches below Ole Miss, or is there some SEC bias in play there?

That one line, the 3rd-best opponent is the killer difference in the SOS. How often has FSU sucked so badly that they are a) our 3rd-best opponent and b) ranked 23 places below Auburn?

The total difference, if you sum the rankings like a cross-country or golf team score (lower is better) is Clemson 609, Bama 663. That's a 54 point difference, and that FSU vs Auburn game account for almost half of that margin.

And the N-th best OOC opponent deltas. Clemson does it's part scheduling tougher OOC games.

Clemson vs # 14 Texas A&M (Clemson +49)
Clemson @ # 45 U of SC (Clemson +40)
Clemson vs # 117 Charlotte (Clemson +11)
Clemson vs # UR Wofford (ignored)

Bama vs # 63 Duke
Bama vs # 85 Southern Miss
Bama vs # 128 New Mexico State
Bama vs # UR Western Carolina

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Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:39 AM
 

To be fair your opponent's mean ranking is not a very good indicator for strength of schedule. It would be significantly more difficult for an average team to defeat both (1)Clemson and (130) UTEP in a two game season than defeat (64) North Texas and (66) San Diego State. Even though the schedules' mean rankings are the same they are not really comparable in terms of difficulty. College football is not known for its parity, there is a significant drop off in talent and skill once you get past the first 8 or 9 teams.

A more reasonable evaluating tool would be to analyze how our schedules would fair if they played each other. In this case I removed both FCS opponents and replaced them with our expected conference game opponent because this conversation only matters if we are both in a playoff position. Using the same CBS Rankings our schedule would earn a combined record of (62-80-2) against Alabama's for a 43% Win percentage.

We won't face anybody the caliber of Georgia or LSU until the playoffs, we don't have to play A&M at College Station, we both have to play our rival away from home, but ours won't be going to a bowl game afterwards much less ranked. Once you have accepted your flaws no one can use them against you.

Source:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1upET5V9iobSP0Nd_MR0hNlYx-zQ5LKeLH-IhEuOAQpI/edit?usp=sharing

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Uh oh, you've done done it now.


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 11:42 AM
 

The SEC deluded ain't gonna like this at all.


Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...

[3]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 12:56 PM
 

This whole ides of being bruised and bloodied up is BS. Each playoff team has a minimum of 24 days off before their first playoff game. Some even get more if they don't have to play in a conference championship game. So they want us to believe that 20 year old guys in peak physical condition can't "recuperate" in a 24 day period? BS.


But, it's their 'truth'!


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 1:29 PM
 



2021 orange level member

Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 2:07 PM
 

Also remember that SEC teams are “allowed” an extra loss compared to other conferences.


Bama vs #128 New Mexico State?

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 3:13 PM
 

Will the Tide fans tear down the goal posts after beating NM State and for the next few wins after? Coots think that's the way do it.

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Re: Bama's 'bloodied up' schedule vs Tigers...

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 5:32 PM
 

The sneaky truth your graphic shows but we still haven't discussed...

Bama NEVER plays more than 4 Away games per year.

That 5th Away game is always a Neutral site game, because Saban will not schedule Home-Away series OOC. It's too risky. He says the SEC is soooooo tough that playing in 4 hostile environments is enough. The networks cooperate by inviting Bama to kick off the season in Dallas, Atlanta, Orlando, etc. His record at Neutral sites was better than his record in Tuscaloosa until he started facing Dabo at Neutral sites.

(Every Power 5 team that sells out their stadium tries to schedule 7 Home games out of the 12, so I've got no problem with that.)

Could you imagine Bama coming to Death Valley like Auburn, Notre Dame, or Ta&m? Saban won't take that chance, because he doesn't need to. His apologists won't let him.


Travel is hard on a


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 6:44 PM
 

Team facing such physical demands...it's real hard...real, real hard! ;)

2021 orange level member

The ACC Will Be Better This Season! Watch

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 7:31 PM
 

Not b/c of Mack Brown alone. UNCheats - actually recruits some really good players! So does Nancy St. Devito at Cuse I think was highly rated - higher than Dungy. They still have those big WR's and they still play super fast.
Pre-season rankings as usual was not kind to the ACC. If Miami comes out and wins it's 1st few it will sneak up near the top 10. Same with FSU if Kendal Briles turns their offense around and they are explosive offensively.
I expect that will happen for both those squads. Miami has Gattis - who helped Bama and Tua become so explosive. He also has access to South Florida speed at WR. FSU has Briles who I am sure will get plenty of advice from dad(Art).
Satterfield - while a spread coach - loves to run the football out of the spread. Kind of more Chip Kelly spread rather than Lincoln Riley spread( I know he is an Air Raid guy). It will take him time probably - to get the pieces he needs - unless Petrino guys who didn't fit are left and are now able to play his style right away. They have some talent on that roster and can be dangerous.
Then you have Mack Brown - he hired the OC Phil Longo as the OC. With H. Freeze and at S. Houston St. he has put up video game numbers. And again, they have talent on that roster. I see them being ranked(Mack Brown effect) and b/c they will win! Not enough for the better teams but enough to be ranked.
Georgia Tech won't win a ton this year; unless it's late in the year! But, "they coming"! Because of the fertile recruiting in greater Atlanta - and their coach's personality - they will eventually recruit well and in a spread be able to attract and keep talent home.

The ACC is coming as a whole - 2016 9-3 in bowl games and winner of the trophy! Both the NC and the trophy given to the conference with the best record.
7-5 and would have been 8-5 had BC not got pulled off of Boise St(game was cancelled due to weather about a qtr in).

UVA - Virginia is going to be tough! They were ranked for a few weeks last year and have a bunch of their key parts back! Plus, a couple tweaks in offensive coaching staff. I see them being ranked somewhere around 22 - 25 by the end of the season. As well as, FSU and Miami(Manny Diaz) isn't playing around!
If the argument is: You need multiple top teams - the ACC will have them sooner rather than later!


So...are you saying the Tigers


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 8:47 PM
 

Will have to beware of 'conference fatigue'? ;)

2021 orange level member

I wish I would have seen your post before I went to the

[1]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 8:49 PM
 

trouble to make mine. I could have just cut and pasted....


Re: I wish I would have seen your post before I went to the

[2]
Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 8:56 PM
 

I'm exhausted just reading about all this .

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DB23


Just focus on the waterway, Cap


Posted: Aug 7, 2019, 9:20 PM
 

Reds and greens...stay in the middle...you'll be fine!

2021 orange level member

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