Bracket Watch: Clemson's latest NCAA Tournament projections |
With about a month of ACC regular-season action to go, Brad Brownell’s Tigers have compiled one of the best NCAA Tournament resumes in the league.
Over the weekend, Clemson moved up to No. 4 in the RPI rankings after adding a seventh win away from Littlejohn Coliseum (75-67 over Wake Forest), and previous-RPI No. 4 Duke dropped its second game versus an RPI Group 2 opponent* (81-77 loss at Saint John’s, No. 94 in RPI; also lost at Boston College, RPI of 79), which is a group Clemson is 14-0 versus this season. The Tigers (19-4, 8-3 ACC) also transitioned into a solo spot at No. 2 in the ACC standings behind conference-unbeaten Virginia (22-1, 11-0). In bracket projections, CBS Sports' Jerry Palm held steady Monday with Clemson as a 2-seed in the East regional, paired with No. 1 Villanova and given a friendly opener pod in Charlotte. ESPN moved the Tigers as a 3-seed from the West to the Midwest in an all-Palmetto State battle with College of Charleston. Projections from around the web via Bracket Matrix peg Clemson as a 2-seed on average. Why have the bracketologists been higher on the Tigers than the pollsters all along? Resume over reputation. The NCAA Selection Committee has a number of advanced metrics at their disposal that are trimmed down to a list of six that are averaged on a team sheet this year. Clemson’s average moved down to 13.8 over the weekend, with an average of six in result-based metrics like RPI, KPI and ESPN strength of record. The Tigers own six wins over teams ranked in the top-42 of the KenPom efficiency rankings, led by top-15 victories over UNC (12) and Ohio State (14). In the traditional polls, Clemson has three wins in five games over ranked opponents. Clemson hosts ACC-winless Pittsburgh (8-16, 0-11) Thursday for a 7 p.m. tip (RSN). Looking further ahead, they play Florida State away (2/14) and home (2/28), which is second-highest ranked team left on the schedule (KenPom: 21) to Feb. 18 home opponent Duke (4). Clemson also travels to Virginia Tech (2/21; KenPom: 41) and Syracuse (3/3; KenPom: 51) and hosts a second date with Georgia Tech (2/24; KenPom: 109). Clemson moved up four spots in the new AP Poll Monday, up to No. 16. Clemson NCAA Tournament profile Record: 19-4 (8-3 ACC) RPI: 4 Metrics average*: 13.8 Strength of Schedule: 11 Record v. RPI Group 1**: 5-4 Average RPI of Wins: 111 Average RPI of Losses: 26 Bad losses (150+ RPI): None Record v. current KenPom top-50: 6-2 Top-25 ranked wins (at the time): No. 22 Florida (71-69 at neutral site), No. 18 Miami (72-63 at home), No. 19 UNC (82-78 at home). Road/neutral record: 7-4 Last 10: 7-3 * Average of result-based metrics RPI, KPI, and ESPN Strength of record plus predictive-based metrics of ESPN BPI, KenPom and Sagarin. **Home 1-30 RPI rank, neutral site 1-50 rank, away 1-75. Just for comparison, here's a similar NCAA Tournament resume in the ACC with Duke, which is also drawing 2-seed projections: Duke NCAA Tournament profile Record: 19-4 (7-3 ACC) RPI: 8 Metrics average: 6.7 Strength of Schedule: 23 Record v. RPI Group 1: 4-2 Average RPI of Wins: 112 Average RPI of Losses: 59 Bad losses (150+ RPI): None Record v. current KenPom top-50: 6-1 Top-25 ranked wins (at the time): No. 2 Michigan State (88-81 at neutral site), No. 7 Florida (87-84 at neutral site), No. 24 Florida State (100-93 at home), No 25 Miami (83-75 on the road). Road/neutral record: 8-3 Last 10: 7-3 ACC Standings SCHOOL CONF CPCT. OVERALL PCT. STREAK Virginia 11-0 1.000 22-1 0.957 W14 Clemson 8-3 0.727 19-4 0.826 W3 Duke 7-3 0.700 19-4 0.826 L1 Miami 6-4 0.600 17-5 0.773 W2 Louisville 6-4 0.600 16-7 0.696 L2 NC State 6-4 0.600 16-7 0.696 W3 Florida State 6-5 0.545 17-6 0.739 W1 North Carolina 6-5 0.545 17-7 0.708 W1 Virginia Tech 5-5 0.500 16-7 0.696 L1 Syracuse 4-6 0.400 15-8 0.652 L2 Boston College 4-6 0.400 14-9 0.609 W1 Georgia Tech 4-6 0.400 11-12 0.478 L1 Notre Dame 3-7 0.300 13-10 0.565 L7 Wake Forest 2-9 0.182 9-14 0.391 L1 Pittsburgh 0-11 0.000 8-16 0.333 L11 * RPI Group 2 is home opponents in the 31-75 ranking range, neutral-site opponents in the 51-100 range and road opponents in the 76-135 range. (Profile figures via WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and ESPN).
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