Clemson vs Baylor matchup

Mar 23, 2024, 11:52 PM

I thought the committee kind of shrugged off seeding teams in equivalence to their ranking, NET, etc. Instead, they did an excellent job of creating great matchups within Regions. Clemson - Baylor is no exception...

The more I've dived into this the matchup I'm intrigued and I believe these two are closer in ability than a first glance may suggest.

The records nearly mirrors one another: 24-10 v. 22-11 with identical conference records of 12-8. Both are one game above .500 in Q1 play: Baylor 10-9 v. Clemson 6-5. Baylor had the opportunity to play more Q1s in the Big12. However, many of those Q1 games (UCF, Cincy, K-State, Tex Tech) aren't much different in comparison to Clemson's Q2 games (NC State, Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, South Carolina). Big12 NET inflation or more besmirching of the ACC? Whatever, doesn't matter at this point.

Baylor did play a solid OOC schedule: Wins over Auburn and Florida and Losses to Duke and Mich. St. (all on a neutral court). Clemson's best victories, on the road at UNC and Alabama, match up well with Baylors top wins, home victories over Iowa St. and Kansas.

Baylor is known as a 3pt shooting team but both teams average nearly the same amount of made 3s a game (Baylor 279 to Clemson's 269 on the season). However, Baylor does shoot it at a better clip (4th in the nation) and they have more players who are legitimate threats from deep.

Baylor is far from a defensive juggernaut. Ranked 250th in opponent's FG% and middle of the road in defending the 3pt line (149th)

Clemson's struggles with defending the three with multiple shooters on the floor this season are well known. Jack Clark's return from injury to the lineup in the last third of the season has helped immensely.

All five Clemson starters can hit the three but Girard is the lone sharpshooter and consistent threat. He was cold against New Mexico, with plenty of open looks but, he's due to catch fire... and if he does Clemson becomes very tough... 9-1 when JG3 scores 20 or more.

Clemson and Baylor both are limited when it comes to the bench. Clemson will get a few more minutes but they're also relatively equal, maybe a slight edge to Clemson as they'll play an extra guy and Baylor's ultra productive sixth man is out with injury.

Baylor has the interior size and depth to match Clemson but I like the idea of an All-ACC PJ Hall attacking Baylor's freshman big. The equalizer is that Bridges may get the offensive advantage over Hall and/or Scheiflien. Clemson should hold the rebounding advantage.

My hope is that Jack Clark is just the guy to render their leading scorer Walters null and void. Clark is impressive in that he can guard so many positions. If he would have been healthy this year he would have led the team in steals and challenged Hall in blocks.

The backcourts are similar in many ways and stack up evenly on most nights as far as production. Chase Hunter still doesnt get enough credit for his defense and Baylor usually turns it over more than it's opponent- sometimes twice as much. Clemson also has solid defensive minded guards off the bench while Baylor's point guard, Dennis, will play close to 40 mins.

It was impressive to see Clemson with such a strong showing against New Mexico with PJ Hall and Joe Girard combing for just 21 points total. But in order to advance they'll need to stay on the floor and produce Sunday evening. Hall should have no issue doing his thing as long as he stays out of foul trouble.

Girard should get opportunities for clean looks in this game, he just needs to connect. The big thing, like many games this season is how he'll handle being attacked on defense. New Mexico did it right away but they were a poor shooting squad Friday. That won't be the case with Baylor. Girard wanted to come to Clemson in part to prove he could play man-to-man. He'll need to hold his own tomorrow night.

I think it's going to be a great game and the Tigers should give a good account of themselves (especially if Friday is any indication). They're good enough to be here and advance.

Prediction
CLEMSON 77 - BAYLOR 75