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Replies: 14
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Paw Master [17255]
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Ron Morris article
May 28, 2013, 9:46 PM
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I'm not one to get worked up about his columns, but today's was particularly stupid. He points out the SEC wins 77% of their hosted regionals (he actually makes it sound like they win 77% of all regionals) which sounds impressive until you discover that the rest of the field wins 68% of their home regionals. But, what is most depressing is to see him succumb to the SEC group-think mentality. First, ACC schools win 72% of their hosted regionals over the same period - not a dramatic difference. But, more pertinent to this upcoming series is that the 16 seed (or team pared with the #1 overall seed for you sticklers) is 7 of 14 or exactly .500 in advancing from their hosted regional. So, while he'd have us believe that Clemson has a less than 25% chance of winning this regional - it is really a coin toss from a statistical standpoint. Comparing like seedings and performance against similar levels of competition is far more pertinent to making a prediction than averaging in the overwhelming win percentage that a conference's national seeds tend to bring into the equation.
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Varsity [249]
TigerPulse: 50%
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Great points. Nice work.***
May 29, 2013, 2:56 AM
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Clemson Icon [26530]
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Viz, good job. This is nothing more than a continuation
May 29, 2013, 7:18 AM
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of the fluff and brownnosing to which Morris has devolved after "The State's" hierarchy caved into from "outside" pressures. All "rah-rah" Gamecock and SEC, all the time, any which way possible....
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CU Guru [1851]
TigerPulse: 84%
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Boyd Nations probabilities
May 29, 2013, 9:06 AM
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If you look at Boyd's page it doesn't give us quite as much of a shot as you seem to think however. He has USC with a 61.5% chance of winning the regional while giving us 34.8%.
http://www.boydsworld.com/data/fieldprobs2013.html
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Standout [340]
TigerPulse: 93%
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Re: Boyd Nations probabilities
May 29, 2013, 9:16 AM
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On the flip side, of the #2 seeds, Clemson at 34.8% has the second best shot at winning their regional...
Only Kansas St/Arkansas is more evenly split between 1 & 2
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Tiger Titan [49901]
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Re: Boyd Nations probabilities
May 29, 2013, 9:30 AM
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Paw Master [17255]
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Re: Boyd Nations probabilities
May 29, 2013, 2:03 PM
[ in reply to Boyd Nations probabilities ] |
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I was aware that these weren't actual probabilities. My problem was with a columnist for a major paper not understanding the difference between a statistic and a probability and further perpetuating this the SEC is best at everything mythos and acting like there is little to no reason to even bother to play this regional. His stated conclusion is that there is only 23% chance that someone other than South Carolina winning this regional. I'm pretty sure Ron Morris is actually smart enough to understand that this holds no water from an actual probability stand point - but there he is putting it in the paper. My point was that if you want to play loose with facts you could easily go the opposite way. If Ron is smart enough to know better then he actually has started spouting garbage to appease his higher ups who are bending over a barrel for the University.
The University's role in using advertising money as a bully stick to get the State paper to reflect their wishes has been a very real problem for the City of Columbia - this isn't just anti Carolina, Tiger jargon. Morris was one of the only writers to have demonstrated any willingness or been allowed the flexibility to speak out in any way about the University. Something about this column just struck me as the final white flag of surrender on his part. It probably seems minor to most but it was so sloppy and pandering that it had to be deliberate on his part.
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Campus Hero [13859]
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You are forgetting one thing though. If USC has a 50%
May 29, 2013, 12:18 PM
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chance of advancing it is a coin flip for them, however it is not a coin flip for us. We will have less than a 50% chance because Liberty and StL both have non-zero chances of winning as well.
How much more likely is a 2-seed to advance than a 3-seed?
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Paw Master [17255]
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Re: You are forgetting one thing though. If USC has a 50%
May 29, 2013, 1:51 PM
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Neither Morris nor I were doing any serious statistical analysis. It was kind of my point that he picked this really broad percentage (SEC winning 77% percent of home regionals), pretended it was more unique than it really was (ACC wins 72% in same situation), and then made a completely ridiculous conclusion that between the three teams in the regional besides the mighty SEC team any of them have only a 23% chance of advancing.
For prior history, of the 7 times that the 1 seed in the 16th seeded regional (getting confusing - I know) has lost, 4 times 2 seeds advanced 3 times the 3 seed advanced. A real statistical analysis at Boyds World has Carolina at 62% Clemson at 35% and Liberty and St Louis at less than 2% each.
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Standout [344]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Ron Morris article
May 29, 2013, 12:38 PM
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7-14 is .333, not .500, right?
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Paw Master [17255]
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Re: Ron Morris article
May 29, 2013, 1:35 PM
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7 of 14 - sorry if worded poorly. There have only been 14 regionals in the current format.
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Trainer [39]
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Re: Re: Ron Morris article
May 29, 2013, 12:57 PM
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Correct you are sir
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Orange Blooded [3925]
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Spurrier still has him a leash.
May 29, 2013, 1:13 PM
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Ron has actually had to move his office underneath Spurriers desk. The fact that he had to so abruptly change his writing after Spurrier called him out says everything about the journalistic integrity of the writer and of the paper.
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Recruit [97]
TigerPulse: 93%
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Two things:
May 29, 2013, 2:06 PM
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1. Stats are just stats - I can bend them, twist them, misuse them, abuse them, or whatever I want to do to make them be what I want them to be.
2. Ron Morris wears Steve Spurrier panties.
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Paw Master [17255]
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Re: Two things:
May 29, 2013, 2:11 PM
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Pretty much a good summation of my point. Just the first time I've truly bought into the idea that Ron is just giving in and being a mouthpiece for the University. Any good columnist is gonna rub both sides of a rivalry the wrong way and I think he used to walk that line. This was pro-SEC drivel I haven't really seen from him before.
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