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CU Guru [1955]
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Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019
Aug 19, 2019, 12:51 PM
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I could be eating these words later in Dec, I'll admit.
But my gut feeling is UGA has 2-3 losses - in the regular season.
Looking at games they COULD lose (games 4 - 11), I have the games in 3 categories: 50/50; 30/40% chance of losing; 20/30% chance of losing.
Game 4 - N.Dame at UGA (50/50). It's early in the season & ND certainly could take the Dawgs. (COULD is the key word of course)
Game 5 - at Tenn (20/30). Tenn should be better & it's at the UT "Big House."
Game 6 - Scar at UGA (20/30). If Scar doesn't lose a dozen players to injury by this game, you have to give them at least a 20% chance to win, maybe 30%.
Game 7 - Kent. at UGA (20/30). Yes, Stoops loses a LOT of talent, but retains/brings in enough that you can't put this 100% in Kirby's column.
Game 8 - FL & UGA in JAX (50/50). This is a real possible loss for the Dawgs.
Game 9 - Mizzou at UGA (30/40). This could be interesting with KB there & Mizzou having not much to lose. Plus, what if UGA is coming off a loss to FL?
Game 10 - UGA at Aub. (50/50). Big rivals, an away game late for UGA, Gus fighting for his life - how could this not be a 50/50 game?
Game 11 - A&M at UGA (50/50). Likely UGA's toughest opponent - certainly THIS late in the year after A&M should be the best it CAN be.
That's four 50/50 games. I can see UGA losing at least two of those, if not ONE of the Tenn, SC, Kent, Mizzou group, & haven't even mentioned the SEC Champ Game.
Not sure Kirby is solid HC material. Very good recruiter, coordinator type - but very good to great HC? Maybe one day, but so far - no.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [105576]
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UGA got in on a fluke 2 years ago
Aug 19, 2019, 1:14 PM
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Their path to the CFP involves having at most 1 loss and winning the SECCG. That means they either have to beat Bama or hope Bama misses the SECCG. Those stars aligned for them a couple years ago and it is not likely to happen again any time soon.
Even when they lucked their way into the CFP they had the championship locked up until Kirby did Kirby things and they choked. #SoonEnough #KirbyGonnaKirby
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All-In [10738]
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Re: UGA got in on a fluke 2 years ago
Aug 19, 2019, 1:36 PM
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LOL .... “...Kirby did Kirby things...” -
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All-TigerNet [10825]
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The dawgs call it “Kirbying”
Aug 19, 2019, 2:51 PM
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Kirby is gonna Kirby
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CU Medallion [19863]
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I think they beat 'Bama in the SEC Champ and make the CFP.***
Aug 19, 2019, 1:31 PM
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [105576]
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Re: I think they beat 'Bama in the SEC Champ and make the CFP.***
Aug 19, 2019, 1:41 PM
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CU Medallion [19863]
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Re: I think they beat 'Bama in the SEC Champ and make the CFP.***
Aug 19, 2019, 3:05 PM
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I also think each year that Pitt will make strides and be competitive. Havent been right on that as if yet.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [105576]
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Except in 2016, they were incredible that year
Aug 19, 2019, 3:27 PM
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when the refs on the field refused to let them lose
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Rival Killer [2802]
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Re: Except in 2016, they were incredible that year
Aug 19, 2019, 4:28 PM
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the 15 yard boulware penalty, because he hurt someone's feelings during a tackle.
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CU Guru [1222]
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Re: Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019
Aug 19, 2019, 1:33 PM
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I agree with your premise. I the Dawgs will UGA-up one regular season game. That, combined with a SECCG loss is enough to keep them out.
That said, UF, ND, and Auburn are not 50/50 games. UGA is much better than all of them. That's not to say they can't lose them. UF and AU always play UGA tough. However it'd be a significant upset.
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Redshirt [98]
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Re: Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019
Aug 19, 2019, 2:10 PM
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I think most people are totally misjudging UGA this year. They seem to be focused on what UGA did previous years, and not what talent they have left.
I'm going to say this TWICE
UGA lost their 4 best receivers from last year.
UGA lost their 4 best receivers from last year.
Riley - NFL
Hardman - NFL
Holloman - kicked off team
Godwin - graduation(?)
Simmons is a SR this year with a total of, wait for it, ....... 14 receptions in his entire career. He is their MOST EXPERIENCED receiver this year. Fromm has NOBODY to throw to. Nobody to catch those 50/50 balls. Nobody to run great routes. UGA is going to be ONE-DIMENSIONAL. Any decent DC will stack the box on UGA.
Unless they recruited some FR phenom like Ross or Higgins, I see a very dim outlook for the dawgs. Yes, I listen to Uncle Lou, and he's a UGA homer, so ignore him when he predicts UGA to win it all.
And I still contend that ND is going to absolutely demolish the dawgs between the hedges. It will be epic.
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Campus Hero [14064]
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You can say the same thing about our DL and none of us
Aug 19, 2019, 2:57 PM
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are concerned about it. UGA has recruited as well as anyone in the country the last few years (Bama included), and their signees include a 2019 5* WR in George Pickens along with several other 4* WRs and a couple of 4* TEs just in the last 2 classes.
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Valley Protector [1487]
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Two Words x 3
Aug 19, 2019, 3:14 PM
[ in reply to Re: Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019 ] |
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George Pickens 5* freak WR
Zamir White - Zues is back and is a baller
Jake Fromm - anytime you have a Top QB you have a chance.
It will be down to them and Bama and UGA gonna whip that ###.
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Legend [6700]
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Re: Two Words x 3
Aug 19, 2019, 5:49 PM
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Not sure what Zeus has to do with lack of experienced receiver depth, for that matter what a frosh has to do with it.
Granted, I imagine that Pickens will be good, however, it even took Ross a while to get acclimated to the college game.
Jake Fromm is also not a top QB. His numbers from his first two years are on par with Jalen Hurts, with the edge nearly in Fromm's favor due to TD numbers. I won't even bother bringing up a Fromm-Lawrence comparison, because it's not even close, and that's what a top QB looks like.
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Redshirt [98]
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Re: Two Words x 3
Aug 19, 2019, 6:43 PM
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^^^^ THIS
"Granted, I imagine that Pickens will be good, however, it even took Ross a while to get acclimated to the college game."
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National Champion [8064]
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Georgia Who?
Aug 19, 2019, 7:03 PM
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Don't nobody care about the bulldogs! They will be good again, but in no way shape or form would I be surprised if Notre Dame were to waltz in the Sanford Stadium and beat them.
The team and it's fans will have that - "we are an SEC team and we just basically have to show up versus non-sec teams attitude" and mess around and get beat!
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Campus Hero [14064]
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What's your definition of a top QB?
Aug 20, 2019, 9:38 AM
[ in reply to Re: Two Words x 3 ] |
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Fromm is a top 5 quarterback nationally and you could make an argument for him being as high as 3. Trevor and Tua are very obviously 1 and 2. Beyond that you have a pool of guys that include:
Fromm - UGA
Herbert - Oregon
Ehlinger - Texas
Hurts - Oklahoma
King - Houston
Love - Utah St
Fromm averaged 9.0 YPA both his FR and SO seasons. That's elite (and actually a good bit higher than Trevor Lawrence at 8.3). He has 54 TDs and 13 INTs over those two seasons. His numbers are better than Hurts' who is also a very good college QB.
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Orange Blooded [2021]
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Lol @ frake jomm being a top qb
Aug 20, 2019, 9:44 AM
[ in reply to Two Words x 3 ] |
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Dude throws out and curl routes all game. My little brother can do that.
What a jake *joke
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Campus Hero [14064]
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He's averaged 9 YPA over 2 seasons
Aug 20, 2019, 10:04 AM
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Those outs and curl routes must be really effective.
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Rival Killer [2670]
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dawgs good but the schedule will get them
Aug 19, 2019, 2:31 PM
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“You only go as far as your schedule let’s you go.”
Larry Munson
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Valley Protector [1487]
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Re: dawgs good but the schedule will get them
Aug 19, 2019, 4:13 PM
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Anything is better than Bama V.
So sick of their schtick.
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Campus Hero [14064]
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Those percentages are wack.
Aug 19, 2019, 2:35 PM
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You can bump just about all of them up by 25-30%.
The early line on ND at Georgia is 11.5 (last i saw). That's around 80% in favor of Georgia
Auburn line is projected at 13.5. That's around 85% for Georgia.
They will be like 3 TD favorites over USC at home - That's 95%+
etc...
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Top TigerNet [28931]
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So you're saying they are one of the Best 4 ...
Aug 19, 2019, 2:42 PM
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in the SEC East ?
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110%er [3636]
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Re: Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019
Aug 19, 2019, 7:29 PM
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I agree with you, for slightly different reasons.
The #1 reason they won't make it is that they won't win the SECCG, and the SEC will only get one rep, as others have said.
But I also agree with you that UGA's window is closing. 2017 should have been their year. Yes, great recruiting can extend your window, but you need experienced talent at key positions until the rookies can be consistent playmakers.
All the top SEC programs have great depth, but they almost all--inc UGA and Bama--fail to develop it. In addition to the WRs, the Dawgs also lost a lot off that defense, so they might try to hold the ball for 40 minutes a game until the defense gels.
ND plays a very physical style of defense, and might very well shut down the Dawg running game, but if they have some players go out even temporarily the Dawgs will run over them. But Book is back, so the Irish will be strong early in the season.
FL and Auburn might have a couple early season losses because of slowly-developing players--Malzahn has a new QB, UF has very little experience on the OL--but I think both will be strong enough by midseason to give UGA a good game.
Add in the A&M game, and the SECCG (I don't see anyone really challenging them for supremacy in the East), and I agree that they might have 3 losses BEFORE they sleep through their bowl game this year.
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Paw Warrior [4916]
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Re: Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019
Aug 19, 2019, 7:35 PM
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Would the leg humpers get into the playoffs if they had 2-3 regular season loses but somehow won the SEC Championship game?
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All-Pro [724]
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Re: Why UGA Won't Make the CFP in 2019
Aug 19, 2019, 7:57 PM
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No way. Don’t think they get in with 1 regular season loss and don’t win SECCG ....
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