All-In [49613]
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Joined: 12/10/98
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Wednesday's Game: UNC at Clemson
Jan 12, 2010, 10:20 AM
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Who: North Carolina (12-4, 1-0 ACC, No. 9) at Clemson (13-3, 1-1 ACC, No. 18)
Where: Wednesday, 9 p.mp. in Littlejohn Coliseum
Is it on TV? Yep, on ESPN
When last we met: In Chapel Hill (so you KNOW the final outcome) Clemson played well early, then went cold from the outside as UNC rolled to a 94-70 win.
The Line: Pomeroy like Clemson by 9; RPI Forecast likes Clemson by 8.
Wow! Clemson is favored? Why's that? A lot has to do with the fact that UNC lost to the College of Charleston, a team Clemson rolled a couple of weeks earlier. Using the old "common opponent" formua, Clemson would win by about 40 points...but I don't think anyone expects that to happen.
That said, North Carolina has not won an away game this year and is a meager 1-4 in neutral and away games. (while Clemson is 4-2 in neutral and away games). Some of UNC's road struggles have come from youth, some have come from point guard problems, but most have come from Roy Williams crying about fans being mean to his players.
Roy and his Tar Heel Blue fan enforcement beam
That's right, Roy won't put up with any of that Tomfoolery. Of course, this will be his first ACC road game of the season, so I'm hoping the fans of Clemson will have something proper planned for Roy and his fragile folks.
UNC has a bench full of McDonald's All-Americans
That's not to say the Heels don't have solid players, and thus far Ed Davis (15 ppg, 10 reb) leads the bunch. the 6-10 sophomore already has 9 double-doubles this year, and is strong underneath. He's a strict post-up guy (Davis hasn't taken a 3-point shot in two years at Carolina) and can get into foul trouble against more agile opponents. He loves to swat at opponent shots, often picking up silly fouls. But make no mistake, Ed's a horse down low.
His bookend down low is 6-9 senior Deon Thompson (15 ppg, 7 reb). Like Davis, Thompson stays close to the basket (only 1 3-point shot in 4 years at UNC) but he plays more polished defense. You're not likely to get Thompson in foul trouble. I like his game ... too bad he's a Tar Heel.
Ginyard is easily the most seasoned UNC player
Then there's Marcus Ginyard (10 ppg, 3 reb, 3 ast), who I believe Frank McGuire originally recruited for the Heels. The recipient of an NCAA-record 7 medical redshirts, Ginyard performed admirably in clamping down Delaney of VTech over the weekend. Of course, since the game was at home, the refs never notice that Ginyard would trip Delaney with his walker coming down court.
No, no! Larry Drew, not Nancy Drew!
Two new faces to watch for the Heels this year are Larry Drew (8 ppg, 2 reb, 6 ast) and Will Graves (8 ppg, 4 reb). Drew will be the make-or-break point of this game, much like Biko Paris was for BC. He's handling the point for the first time this year, and has been prone to spotty performances against pressure. Texas and CoC hounded him in their wins, and I'd expect Clemson do do the same.
After a slow start, Graves has been a strong performer for the Heels. He's about Tanner Smith's size and can shoot inside or out, with a nose for rebounds.
Heck, UNC's got more talented players, but they can be beaten. The key so far is guard play. Texas simply outscored the Heels, letting Drew and Davis get their points while unleashing a barrage from the outside. Kentucky used burts of points and held off the Heels late. College of Charleston benefitted from a miserable night by the Heels.
The Heels are vulnerable against pressure. They average 18 turnovers a game, due in part to their preference for up-tempo play. There's no doubt that the Heels can throw the ball over the top of Clemson's press, but the cumulative effect against Ginyard and Drew may well wear them down late.
Thankfully, Ellington isn't around anymore
Which brings up a major second point. So far this year, the Heels have had trouble rallying in tight games (without their usual zebra reinforcements, of course.) Remember two years ago, when UNC rallied to beat Clemson in Chapel Hill? So far, when they've really needed it, UNC hasn't been able to muster miracles.
And if Clemson's defense has worn the Heels down enough, they won't be able to muster one Wednesday night. All the Tigers have to do is be close enough to claim the game at the end.
One more chance for Trevor to kick some Heels
Do we have a chance of that? Clemson has shown that it can let a game slip away (see Illinois). The Tigers have also proven that they can reclaim a game (see Butler).
Trevor Booker (14 ppg, 9 reb) has a frustrating history agianst the Heels. Since he was inevitably paired against Golden Child Handsoffmeborough any defense resulted in foul calls. Now, Tyler's gone, and it will be interesting to see if four years of frustration can be amended in a single night.
Still, this game will be won (or lost) on the wings. This is where Demontez Stitt (11 ppg, 2 reb, 4 ast) will need to shine. Odds are he's going to challenged by Grandpa Ginyard, a vaunted defender. And if he slips past Ginyard, Davis and Thompson will seal up the inside. Andre Young (8 ppg, 3 ast) could find himself getting several must-hit opportunities.
The Tigers need to be ready for inside-outside opportunities and shots from dishing penetration. Texas was able to shred UNC, getting four players with 20 points. Kentucky looked past Wall for socring opportunities.
Clemson will need to do the same.
Dang, without Hansborough in there, who do I protect with wretched foul calling?
This is a game that begs for the freshmen to step up. Noel Johnson (6 ppg, 2 reb) and Milt Jennings (4 ppg, 4 reb) can make a major difference, especially in the second half as UNC begins to tire. In addition, Devin Booker (5 ppg, 4 reb) and Jerai Grant (6 ppg, 4 reb) will have inside opportunities as UNC collapses on Booker or chases Stitt.
This one is going to boil down to who gives up too many easy points. Clemson allows 10 points per game less than UNC, but UNC scores 6 more per game than Clemson. And the Heels will get some easy baskets early off Clemson's press. They could well be leading at halftime.
Littlejohn needs to be a pit of pandemonium
This is one game that we, as fans, can make a difference in. Beyond ragging Roy about PC fans, beyond the usual "miss it!" sort of stuff, every person not wearing baby blue in Littlejohn MUST come expecting a win and being willing to do everything necessary to get one. Get the Heels rattled (and they CAN be rattled this year) and pick up our guys when UNC makes one of their patented ref-aided runs.
So, what's the outcome? It's one of those rare games where Clemson can play fast and win, or play slow and win. We could also lose. Our best effort will beat the Heels. Anything less, like an Illinois swoon, and the Heels walk out of Littlejohn with a win.
I don't think anyone wants that. And I don't think the guys will do that. I fully expect a win, and I want Roy to have more than unsociable fans to worry about on their bus ride home.
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