All-In [49613]
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Thursday's Game: Clemson vs. Michigan
Mar 16, 2009, 8:51 PM
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Who: Clemson (23-8, NCAA Seed 7, AP No. 24) vs. Michigan (20-13, NCAA Seed 10, unranked)
When: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. at the Sprint Center in Kansas City
Is it on TV? Yep, on CBS or on cbssports.com if you're stuck on-line.
What's the spread? Clemson by 5. Sorry can't find an over/under
Common foes: Michigan split with Duke, lost to Maryland, split with Illinois, and went overtime to beat Savannah State.
Wolverines! Sorry, I had to include a "Red Dawn" reference!
Savannah State? Didn't we pound them? Well, let's put it this way: Everyone got tacos and Sav. State didn't reach 50. But remember, Michigan also beat UCLA, Purdue, Minnesota and came dang close to beating UConn. All season, they've been as uneven as the road to the Oconee Fish Hatchery. In the end, they did just enough to earn a bid from the Selection Committee.
They're from the Big 10, right? How'd they do there? So-so. In compiling a 9-9 record, they beat Illinois 1 of 3 and split with Purdue. That Purdue win, by the way, came late in the season and they scored an impressive 87 points. And don't forget, they scored 81 on Duke.
The Wolverines usually score in the high 60s to low 70s, but they can collect points. It's just that they prefer a more deliberate pace, and they were usually outgunned on the boards in the Big 10.
Harris isn't skert to go to the hole.
Michigan's offense is fueled by two guys: 6-5 guard Manny Harris (17 ppg, 7 reb, 4 asst, 4 TO) and DeShawn Sims (16 ppg, 7 reb, 1 blk). Stop either of them and Michigan's offense is in trouble.
Harris is a straight-up clone of KC Rivers, strong, unafraid of crashing the boards and a guy you can't leave uncovered. He runs more of the point duties than KC, and he's not as good from beyond the arc (29 percent). One third of all Michigan possessions run through him, so messing up his game would be a priority. His best games have come against guard-weak teams. Against Illinois in their last match, he was held to 9 points.
Come here, Booker! I got a whole lotta more!
If Harris is KC, then Sims is Booker. A generous 6-8 center-forward, he's been on a late-season scoring crusade. Like VTech's Jeff Allen, he's prone to foul against tough competition, and can get frustrated, leading the team in personal fouls this year. Sims isn't as active on defse as Booker, but he doesn't need to be. The Wolverines alternate between a 1-3-1 and 2-3 defense, putting as many bodies on the boards as they can. They play a very good zone, too, forcing opponents to shoot a lot of 3's.
If Clemson is hitting from outside: Death to the Yankees!
It's sort of like watching Fort Sumter under attack. If the bombs fall right, Michigan gets blown to bits. If not, they come down court and set up their offense.
No! No! Lucas-Perry, not Luke Perry!
Beyond Harris and Sims, it's a baker's choice who's going to shoot. Laval Lucas-Perry (7 ppg) is a decent outside shooter, but alternates between 3 and 19 points in any given contest. Zach Novack (7 ppg) is a Tanner Smith-sized guard but on defense he fouls like an epeleptic in a phone booth.
Inside, the only help Sims gets comes from stray rebounds to other players. After Harris, Sims and Novack, no one gets more than 2 boards per game. With a four-guard offense, Michigan gets only about 30 rebounds per game...which has to be lowest of any team in the Dance.
On offense, they average 9 offensive boards per game, but only turn the ball over 11 times per game ... partly because they move the ball in set plays rather than push the tempo. Against a team willing to let them get set, Michigan can pick you apart.
Thus the dilemma. With four guards in the lineup, full-court pressure is risky. But laying back is inviting Michigan to play at their pace. The best way to beat them is get ahead early and force them to speed up ... and if Clemson decides to get off to a slow start the Tigers will be in trouble.
Can Clemson bag the 3-pointer?
How do the Tigers counter? One thing in Clemson's favor is depth and balance. While Michigan has only two shooting hitting better than 35 percent from the outside, Clemson has 6. Clemson averages an additional 8 rebounds per game, the same number of assists and, until recently nearly the same number of turnovers.
Demontez Stitt (9 ppg, 3 reb, 4 ast) will have more trouble slicing and dicing the Michigan zone. The Tigers should open by looking inside, where we have a decided edge. Booker (15 ppg, 10 reb, 2 blk) will draw the full attention of Sims and, depending which side he posts up on, the weakside help. That frees Ray Sykes (8 ppg, 5 reb) or Jerai Grant (6 ppg, 4 reb) on the other side, or if doubled, Booker should look immediately outside for a free Rivers, Terrence Oglesby (13 ppg, 2 ast) or perhaps David Potter (5 ppg, 2 reb).
That makes sense: now, how do we play defense? With four guards, Michigan can break the press. The question is, what will they do once it gets broken? Wake and GTech pushed straight ahead, picking up high-percentage buckets. That's not Michigan's style, but odds are they'll add a couple of planned plays against the press.
So, Clemson needs to be selective. Use different presses, mixed with a smothering presence on Harris in halfcourt. Booker can annoy Sims, but he's played against bigger foes in the Big 10. Clemson must disrupt Michigan's sets or prepare to hit a high percentage of long-range jumpers.
The big question: Who's going to win? The Maryland-Duke Clemson would roll over Michigan. The Clemson that played Wake might be able to outscore them. But the one we saw in the ACC tourney will be back on a plane on Friday.
To beat Michigan, Clemson must hit from the wings, step up and stop the outside shot and control the boards. All are possible against this opponent: all we have to do is do it.
Personally, I'd park TO well outside the arc and let him launch a couple. If they connect, Michigan will begin stretching out, giving Booker and Sykes room to move. If not, we're none the worse off.
Time to step up, Tigers!
Of course offense hasn't been the problem lately. The perimeter defense must be tougher if we're going to avoid another one-and-done.
I believe we have the edge and the abililty. It's time to show the heart.
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