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CU Medallion [55851]
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All-In [42329]
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Welp, that was a... disheartening read.***
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Apr 12, 2024, 1:56 PM
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CU Medallion [55851]
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Yee-ep. Hard to argue with it though. History repeats. The 4th Turning is here.***
Apr 12, 2024, 2:13 PM
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Oculus Spirit [81253]
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Is this IT?***
Apr 12, 2024, 2:43 PM
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Hall of Famer [20559]
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Re: WWIII. Good read. Spoiler: We're already in it.
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Apr 12, 2024, 3:05 PM
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It's a really good read so I'll TU, but there's one main factor I do think people are overlooking when it comes to China - how dependent they are on the West to be trading partners, and how vulnerable they are to their trade being cut off.
Their population is now declining...actually, there's evidence it's beginning to plummet. That means consumption-led growth in China is done. Their only possible form of growing revenue in future years is trade-driven and their dishonest and bullying business practices, endless intellectual-property theft, and general asshattery is causing Europe and North America to cut them off hard.
But they have to keep it going. China imports the vast majority of their oil from the Middle East. They import the vast majority of their farm equipment from the US. Geographically they're still locked into the "first island chain" of the South China Sea, of which Taiwan is just one part.
What that means, from a practical standpoint, is that even if they could win a war with the US and its allies and somehow take Taiwan - which I'm less than convinced of - not only would their trade with the West be severed instantly, they'd be extraordinarily susceptible to embargo and blockade in a way Russia absolutely is not. Russia produces (and exports) its food and energy and can keep the lights on and their people fed no matter how bad Ukraine gets. China absolutely cannot. Their lights would be out in six months and their people would be starving to death within a year. (And no, they cannot just import it from Russia...there are no large-scale pipelines between the two nations and building that infrastructure would take decades they wouldn't have.)
Their trade is 95% sea trade. Take that away and China collapses in months. And we have the power to take every bit of it away.
Sure, their military buildup makes me incredibly leery. But their problem could well be that aspect of their national power is ramping up even as it's collapsing elsewhere. And there's tons of signs it's collapsing elsewhere.
Their big and seemingly insurmountable issue is that their navy cannot project power. It's a regional navy designed to dominate in the South China Sea by spamming huge numbers of rockets and small surface combatants in the gunship, frigate, and corvette classes. But their big problems would all come from outside that little bathtub because China cannot survive without trade...and the US dominates the high seas and likely will continue to for the next 50+ years. Our Navy is a blue-water, long-range navy.
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110%er [7239]
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I guess technically there's a non-zero chance
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Apr 12, 2024, 4:15 PM
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but no real threat of a US-China war, mostly because the US is the largest consumer economy in the World and China makes everything. Out of all the incidents listed, China screwing around in the Philippines is the most likely, but it's a pretty big leap from China expanding it's territory in the South China Sea to conventional warfare.
Just to clear something up: it is insane to think that either North Korea is going to invade South Korea or China is going to invade Taiwan. Both of these would be military disasters. They can #### around and hit some strategic targets to flex their military muscles, but no chance at an invasion. North Korea would have to immediately take Seoul, ####ing Seoul, where the giant ### city would bottleneck any invasion and then all the North Korean soldiers would see the outside world (essentially 50 years in the future) and immediately defect. If China were to try and invade Taiwan, that's an amphibious assault against a legit military. There are argument that China could take some smaller islands in Penchu, but there's no strategic value there.
There's a reason we've been fighting proxy wars for the last 70 years.
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Hall of Famer [20559]
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Re: I guess technically there's a non-zero chance
Apr 12, 2024, 4:31 PM
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Also, trying to land troops on Taiwan...I mean, like wow. They don't have many landing ships to begin with so they'd have to ferry troops in a handful at a time...and most of the island looks pretty much like this:
A kid with a handful of rocks could defend that little beach from would-be attackers. And I see a lot of rocks.
Maybe the play would be to swarm their troops in on civilian vessels? But those are defenseless. And Taiwan's got a ton of missiles.
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110%er [7239]
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I can't yell loudly enough just how hard an amphibious assault is
Apr 12, 2024, 5:14 PM
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against really any defense. Then you look at the size of Taiwan and their topography and yeah, good luck.
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110%er [5712]
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Re: WWIII. Good read. Spoiler: We're already in it.
Apr 12, 2024, 4:49 PM
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Agree, good article. It's a cr@p shoot as to what will happen.
cac's point is well taken in that the US and China are so tied up together in trade, it would seem irrational for China to be the aggressor.
I still have the opinion that we will not correctly guesstimate when and why China will try to retake Taiwan, or other areas, if ever. The way they think and their outlook is so different than ours, I do not think we can accurately put ourselves in their shoes.
Their strategy might be to just claim Taiwan and other areas long enough such that the US, India, etc. become to accept it. It could take 50 years or more, but maybe China is willing to wait generations for their strategy to pay off.
OTOH maybe that is what they have been doing and they are believing their strategy HAS paid off. Maybe with their population decreasing they see themselves at an inflection point and are willing to take more drastic actions than they historically have. Maybe they see N Korea and Russia as legitimate and strong distractions for the US if conflict begins.
What odds does Xi need to make a move? 50/50? What is the payoff for China if they "win?" What are the odds for a hard four in craps (I think it is 8:1)?
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Legend [18026]
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The rise in isolationist sentiment is my main worry re:possibility of WW3.
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Apr 12, 2024, 5:40 PM
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I'm seeing it with both the right and left in wanting America to pull away from the global stage, to weaken NATO (or leave it completely...), to not help Ukraine or Taiwan, to quit protecting the shipping lanes, to pull away from globalization in economic policies, etc...
A huge reason for the peace and prosperity of the United States and the world that we've seen post-WW2 is because of the larger role the US has played and the interconnectedness of the economies of countries. Pulling back from either of those and leaving countries as separate actors will only increase the odds of a WW3 as it did in the lead up to WW2.
As others have pointed out in this thread, it's probably very likely we would be much closer or already fighting China if not for the fact that our economies are so entangled that if either were to actually attack the other it would surely be mutually assured destruction. Yet, we have many arguing to undo that entanglement without understanding the danger in doing so.
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