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All-In [26968]
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Lot o points [156102]
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You ever met peoples?
Apr 7, 2020, 9:23 AM
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If this thing turns out way lower than anticipated, a number of people will take it the way you did. I think many more will interpret as much ado about nothing and not react similarly to govt calls for action if similar happens again.
In fairness, if these same actions resulted in much higher deaths, I think officials would be the first ones blaming the public for not taking it seriously enough.
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All-In [26968]
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There's no way to prove it, but
Apr 7, 2020, 9:24 AM
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doesn't logic tell you that if X number of people die, when interaction between people has been severely restricted, then the number of people that would die if there were no restrictions would be X times a big number?
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Lot o points [156102]
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Read the previous subject line again.
Apr 7, 2020, 9:25 AM
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People aren’t always.....some would says are rarely...logical.
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All-In [26968]
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Yeah, I understand...
Apr 7, 2020, 9:31 AM
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In the end, people are going to believe what they believe. Some people just want to have a cynical and pessimistic attitude, so they are going to find reasons to think it was all a big government racket. I have to admit I have moments like that (not about the virus in particular). But lately I've been wanting to try to take a more optimistic outlook.
Though it's on a laughably smaller scale than a President or governor, I've been in a position to help make decisions about restrictions of gatherings. It's hard, man. In the end, you just feel like you have to err on the side of caution. I have a hard time criticizing leaders for going too far on this.
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Scout Team [170]
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That's fantastic!***
Apr 7, 2020, 9:23 AM
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Heisman Winner [119852]
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Yeah, tell those West Gvegas peeps
Apr 7, 2020, 9:26 AM
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Congregating outside the coin laundry....
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Oculus Spirit [94230]
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It speaks to politicians, health services and to Americans..
Apr 7, 2020, 9:30 AM
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in general to have drastically depressed the spread of this virus.
I appreciate medical professions and their dedication to curing patients brought to them and EMS, police, firemen but the real unsung heroes of this pandemic are the clerks and stockers at your local grocery and drugs stores.
Those ladies and gentlemen work without protection, without PPE or medicine to prevent the virus from overwhelming them and they are being exposed to just as much as those other groups according to reports of people being infected 10-14 days before they show symptoms.
They work in the dark without knowing who can infect them unlike the others who suspect everyone of being contaminated. Next time you're shopping for medicine or food thank those girls, boys, men and women who are risking their lives to feed us and see to our medicine.
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Legend [17837]
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Re: It speaks to politicians, health services and to Americans..
Apr 7, 2020, 10:25 AM
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And if by chance one has to go to the Post Office, thank the clerk at the desk. I have a cousin who works as a supervising clerk, and she said yesterday they had the same high volume of customers she sees normally during Christmas.
Evidently a lot of grandparents getting out sending Easter baskets to the kids and the like. You know, essential things.
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Oculus Spirit [94230]
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Yes, anyone working with the public is a hero to me.
Apr 7, 2020, 10:46 AM
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Thank them.
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Oculus Spirit [97847]
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I think the longball numbers will more than top projections.
Apr 7, 2020, 9:57 AM
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We're almost halfway through the first round of this fight. The virus isn't going anywhere. It will be around until we create a vaccine. Once cases decline, the most important thing will be antibody testing and hopefully some good news that cases were MASSIVELY under-counted. We know there's a large under-count, just not how large. Under our current testing here in SC, DHEC seems to think it's a factor of seven. 7 times as many actual cases than what's recorded. Don't know where they got that data, but they published it. So let's say this tops off at 500,000 recorded cases nationwide. And say the SC average and testing parallels the national average. That means we had 3.5 million cases total in the US. Hurrah for social distancing, right?
Well, that leaves only 327 million Americans unexposed and possible bait for the virus. Or 99% of the population. As soon as we socially distance less, it comes back, infecting the 99% of Americans with no antibodies. Our best hope is a massive load of cases unrecorded, or some other prior virus large percentages have been exposed to previously that creates some percentage of immunity. Or a percentage that's large with genetic immunity for whatever reason. 50 to 1 or 100 to 1 would be ideal for an undercount. 7 to 1 and we will have problems for a long time, and that estimate of 100-240K deaths will be way too low. If, say, our testing shows 100 exposures per every confirmed case, and they "top" out at 500,000, then we have a herd immunity level of 50 million people. That leaves only 5/6 of people in the exposure pool for future cases. Once we reach 50% exposure (3/6) to the virus, THEN we it will decline on its own over time. THEN we can really get back to work at 100% with a manageable decline in cases.
But I think we may come in under the death toll of 100-240K, at least in the first round.
China by now has a very good idea about the longball odds here. We're just starting to figure it out. Social distancing was needed for the first round, as the fight would easily have ended in a 1st round knockout. Over time, the deaths will be limited only by the capacity of our medical providers to keep up. Social distancing in the first round prevented them from getting overrun. Go back to 100% employment, etc. in 2-3 months, and this will roar back, depending on the pool of people who escaped round 1. That depends on the undercount.
I still think the percentages here, over the next two years, will rival the Spanish Flu of 1918, and since our population has exploded since then, 2% of humanity lost will be a staggering number. We can't shut down forever, no one can, and no one will. I wouldn't support social distancing more than 3 months. I would HOPE we could get a billion n95 masks made, and gloves for people to wear, and we take precautions as a N95 mask and gloves, UNIVERSALLY USED, will have as big or bigger impact than social distancing without. PLUS, we can get back to work. Long term we NEED masks and gloves in massive quantities to ride this out. They will pay for themselves 100 times over.
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Oculus Spirit [94230]
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No, you're omitting vital factors which may move your..
Apr 7, 2020, 10:52 AM
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numbers drastically toward more accurate estimations.
Vaccine, possible in a few months. Israel had a vaccine in test a month ago. Israelites are notorious for producing results without bureaucratic restraints and they work.
You're ignoring the population, which may be massive, of those who have natural immunity to the virus. You're also eliminating any possibility that antibodies of those infected this go around might be providing some or total immunity which can be shared by plasma transfer from previously sick to those who weren't. That's being tried now.
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Oculus Spirit [97847]
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I didn't ignore anything.
Apr 7, 2020, 11:16 AM
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I mentioned a vaccine and possible natural immunity. Good luck with 100 million plasma transfers. I did ignore plasma transfers as a solution. Might be an effective treatment for critical cases though.
Antibody testing will reveal any level of natural immunity when people who never knew they had it have antibodies. But that number appears to be minimal. I think Batman probably has some natural immunity though. With the number of cases, and medical histories taken, if there was natural immunity from something, they would have found it. More likely there's some genetic immunity to a degree. There's always that. Genetic immunity keeps us surviving through 20,000 years of epidemics. Oddly, pandemics are something relatively new, as for thousands of years the Americas were cut off from the rest of the world. That's why Europeans have exacted such a massive toll in the "new world". Same for Aborigines in Australia. We are all in the same boat now, and we all sink or swim together.
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Legend [15751]
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Hope he’s right!***
Apr 7, 2020, 10:07 AM
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Rock Defender [54]
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I think it shows that epidemiologists aren’t much better
Apr 7, 2020, 11:37 AM
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