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Replies: 35
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Ring of Honor [23295]
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Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:35 PM
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Netanyahu said Iran made a big mistake launching hundreds of ballistic missiles at them and "they will pay for it".
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Orange Blooded [2312]
TigerPulse: 91%
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Probably not. They will probably attack conventionally.
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:40 PM
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Israel has always denied having nukes.
Using them erases plausible deniability.
They will probably attack Iran's missile, air Force, Navy, and oil well infrastructure.
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Varsity [115]
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Re: Probably not. They will probably attack conventionally.
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:37 PM
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Agreed.
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Game Day Hero [4503]
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Re: Probably not. They will probably attack conventionally.
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Oct 1, 2024, 9:08 PM
[ in reply to Probably not. They will probably attack conventionally. ] |
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I attended a talk given by Israeli General Moshe Dayan in 1977 in Knoxville, TN. He confirmed that Israel had nuclear weapons even back then.
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Clemson Sports Icon [52230]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:42 PM
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No
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Rival Killer [2694]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:50 PM
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Israel won't retaliate at all. They understand that retaliation means the start of WW3.
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Team Captain [478]
TigerPulse: 85%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:53 PM
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It would. But they have proven they are not willing to turn the other cheek. Iran will at the very least lose the oil.
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Fan [38]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:57 PM
[ in reply to Re: Will Israel nuke Iran? ] |
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Iran has now fired 500 misses at Israel this year.
They responded to the last attack with 1 missile and hit an air defense system radar (s300) with one missile.
I expect them to hit at least half a dozen targets this time.
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Orange Blooded [2575]
TigerPulse: 73%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: Will Israel nuke Iran? ] |
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You are so naïve. They will hit them hard young lad.
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Game Day Hero [4291]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:12 PM
[ in reply to Re: Will Israel nuke Iran? ] |
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No offense, but you couldn't be more wrong. I'm not saying they would go the nuclear option. Not at all. But they're about to make Iran feel some pain. Likely their little shipping island is about to go up in smoke.
Message was edited by: jarheadtiger®
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Varsity [115]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 7:47 PM
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I think that's the point. They may respond, but it wont' be nuclear. There is simply no good reason from a strategy perspective that makes such an attack outweight the costs. The risk of escalation that you don't want right now, increased cost/losses, loss of support in the US (which is still critical for Israel.)
They may respond with an attack that is not nuclear. That still seems unlikely to me simply because there is perhaps no reason to escale at this moment when Iran can't seem to hit them anyway. Israel would be smarter to finish off Hezbollah and then turn to "teaching" Iran a lesson (with conventional, not nuclear weapons.)
One thing might change this calculas (to respond conventionally ... again, there is zero reason to use nuclear weapons.) If Iran continues to supply Hezbollah and the fighting is dragging on due to that material support, Israel might have to bring the fighting to Iran in some way to "persuade" them to stop.
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Game Day Hero [4503]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 10:08 PM
[ in reply to Re: Will Israel nuke Iran? ] |
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I may be wrong, but I think they may target leadership in Iran. They’ve been sending that message by taking out the top tiers of Hezbollah, not to mention one leader of Hamas visiting in Tehran that shook Iranian leadership to the core.
The message to Iran has been, “We can reach you anytime anywhere.” Message not received. Time to make it clear.
Israel knows that Iran is the cause of all their problems, so nothing will change until they cut off the head of the snake. If anything, other countries in the region may lend a hand.
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Orange Blooded [2272]
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Game Day Hero [4503]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 9:08 PM
[ in reply to Re: Will Israel nuke Iran? ] |
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Let’s see how that prediction ages, clbyers.
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Orange Beast [6395]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 6:51 PM
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That’s crazy talk. No one would back them after that. They’d be finished.
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Game Changer [1673]
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If you truly want to know how
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:10 PM
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this all unfolds, I recommend reading Ezekiel 38 and 39 in the Old Testament. God orchestrates all this.
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All-TigerNet [5850]
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Re: If you truly want to know how
Oct 1, 2024, 9:51 PM
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Lol how ridiculous
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Clemson Icon [26260]
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No. That would lose them any support from anyone globally***
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:14 PM
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Varsity [115]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:34 PM
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Very unlikely in the near term. If they had to, they "might" ... but the preference would be to not use strategic weapons like that unless the threat was existential (that is to the existence of the state of Israel or its way of life.) Strategic debate exists as to where you draw that line; that is, or how you know that something is existential or just severe. A nuclear attack on Israel is obviously existential. A gradually increasing series of terrorist attacks over years may become existential over time, but you might not realize it in time. A completely open border that is, for all practical purposes uncontrolled and uncontrollable maybe similarly become an existential threat in the aggregate of years to a way of life (socio-economic) if not to actual existence of a state. But I won't go down that road.
Nuechterlein provided a somewhat more graded set of criteria for determining the severity of a threat, albeit still objective. His matrix depicts the categories of Major, Vital and Survival. This potentially allows you to think about serious threats in an escalatory way as opposed to as all or nothing.
So, for Israel, the Iron Dome system seems to have worked well. Thus, there is less reason to escalate the situation in response by using a nuclear weapon at this time. First, Israel needs to finalize operations in Hamas. Secondly, Israel has opened a new front in the north against Hezbollah. That has generated predictable international condemnation. Despite Turkey's insistence that anti-Israeli member nations override the UN Security Council (based on a 1950's era rule) and respond against Israel "with force”, this has not happened. This would significantly push up the severity scale a la Neuchterlein's matrix if it occurred, which seems unlikely at best right now. The use of a nuclear weapon, probably viewed as a disproportionate response (again, a topic for another time), could easily change that equation. So, if Iranian missile attacks are not effective, and Israel can in fact seize the initiate in what we call Phase 3 of operations against Hezbollah, moving the fight into Lebanon and dictating the timing and tempo of combat, there is no reason to risk escalation beyond what it already is at this time. "At this time" being the key term.
Furthermore, the escalation risks violation the principle of overreach. The strategic concept, used by Paul Kennedy (but around as a concept, if not in name, so much longer) is typically used in discussing grand strategy but has its place in the battlespace at and the strategy of the theater/operational level of war. In this case, Israel could likely take on Iran and Hezbollah at the same time while wrapping up in Gaza. But why would you take that risk given the certainty of increased cost and losses? By carefully controlling the pace of escalation through measured restraint "at this time", Israel can, despite potentially being outnumbered by adversaries in the region, achieve localized supremacy to finish Gaza and Hezbollah in detail and in sequence. At this point, Israel won't even need to worry about Iran, as it is largely unable to effect Israel without its regional proxies and with no offensive capability that can, at range, penetrate Israeli defenses.
Indeed, if Israel can prevent regional escalation and finish off Hezbollah now, it will likely have achieved an increased measure of security (not peace) for perhaps another generation.
Controlling the escalation on terms favorable to you position and goals is the key. The use of nuclear weapons, barring some drastic change in the threat severity, is counterproductive.
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All-TigerNet [5947]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 7:40 PM
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No nukes but everything else is on the table. Be prepared for several key industries (oil refinery, ports, etc.) to disappear in Iran. Its gonna happen just when is the question.
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Game Day Hero [4503]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:38 PM
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No, but Iran may be in search of a president and/or ayatollah soon.
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All-American [597]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
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Oct 1, 2024, 7:41 PM
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Israel has an insane policy called the sampson option https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
defenders of it (the policy) try to simplify to nothing more than a right to exist, right to fight, but its basically a very supremacist ideology that amounts to have if we can't have the earth how we want it(full control) we will ruin it for the rest of you.........lovely mindset
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Varsity [115]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 8:00 PM
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I'm not sure I interpret it in the way you do. In the first place, I think its a messaging component of deterrence. In other words, whether Israel would actually do something like that if its very existance was on the brink of destruction doesn't really matter. What matters is ... do adversaries "believe" they will do it. If they think the Israeli's are vicious enough to do so, then there is some forcing function disuading them from a convential attack, overun and destruction of the nation in the first place. It may serve to "control" the conduct and escalation of conflict. This is game theory ... into which deterrence theory fits. If it works.
In a lot of ways, it is almost no different from our own Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) strategy from the 1950s/1960s. The idea was that anyone launching a pre-emptive first strike would destroy the adversary ... but had to believe that the adversary, even though already doomed to lose, would respond with an equally devstating strike (Shall we play a game?) despite having no chance to save themselves or win. In this way, neither side could afford to escalate to this level of destruction. Someone has to be left to "turn the war off."
In fact, we can criticize the Israeli's for this policy, but the basic tenets of deterrence as described above still exist today. Its the very reason why we have airborne and subsurface nuclear strike capability. Althought they can be used for a first strike option, their primary role is to remain hidden or safe from an first strike by the enemy in order to deliver a second strike of equal destruction on the attacker. Again, no winners.
But this only works if the enemy believes you will actually follow through. So the SAMSON Opion, which is, interestingly enough, a widely used topic, and our deterrence strategy, must be believable. So it must but public. The idea for us, and likely the Isralies, is that the very existence of the idea and the possibility that its for real will deter that level of attack.
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Game Day Hero [4503]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 8:02 PM
[ in reply to Re: Will Israel nuke Iran? ] |
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Yeah. I get all my information from Wikipedia. SMH
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Legend [6906]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 8:08 PM
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Hope so, but I doubt it.
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National Champion [7411]
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Kinda sounds like the whole in those days there will be wars and rumors
Oct 1, 2024, 8:14 PM
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Of wars” thing ive read in an old book that’s been around for thousands of years… seems like there’s a bunch of things that are going on right now that fit the same prophecy. If it is, buckle up, it only gets way worse…
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1st Rounder [644]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 8:17 PM
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I think the bigger question is when Iran has a nuke will they use it? We all know they have heavy water and they've made enough but will they use it?
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MVP [509]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 8:25 PM
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They don’t have to nuke anyone. They can blow up pagers on their person remotely whenever they feel like it.
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Tiger Spirit [9491]
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That would be great
Oct 1, 2024, 8:33 PM
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🙏🏽
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All-TigerNet [5892]
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Israels UN representative
Oct 1, 2024, 8:36 PM
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Made it very clear this afternoon that Israel is going to strike back hard.
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Dynasty Maker [3335]
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Re: Israels UN representative
Oct 1, 2024, 8:42 PM
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If they strike Iran, I think it will be to destroy their nuclear weapons development capability. That’s what keeps the world on edge about Iran, including the Arab states.
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Orange Phenom [14628]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 8:58 PM
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Just use conventional weapons and destroy Iran's nuclear capability and all their oil fields. If you want to see the Climatist freak out, get your popcorn and watch that show. BTW, the world survived Chernobyl and Fukushima. Hayley, if the wind and rains work out, Russia and China may take the brunt of the fallout.
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National Champion [7625]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 9:18 PM
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No
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Hall of Famer [8319]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 9:38 PM
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Yes
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National Champion [7625]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 9:42 PM
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Slim chance at this stage.
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National Champion [7297]
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Re: Will Israel nuke Iran?
Oct 1, 2024, 11:11 PM
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no
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Replies: 35
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