Re: The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.

“ No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Upset Chance: 57.8 percent

Spread: New Mexico favored by 1.5 points

Here’s some sophisticated analysis: You can tell the NCAA Selection Committee botched a matchup if it would make more sense with its seeds reversed. Our model sees New Mexico as a stronger team than Clemson, seeded five spots lower, by a margin of 1.9 points per 100 possessions. (If you’re wondering whether Ken Pomeroy disagrees, he does: His website estimates the Lobos are 2 points better. Lol.) We’ve been calling New Mexico a potential Cinderella for a while, and not even because of any particularly outstanding underdog traits they carry. They’re an excellent team whose handful of close late-season losses got them undervalued by most bracketologists.”

https://theathletic.com/5353738/2024/03/19/ncaa-tournament-upset-picks-new-mexico-grand-canyon-look-to-bust-brackets-in-west-region/?source=user_shared_article

pelepolo®

Athletic Dir [892]

TigerPulse: 100%

Posts: 479

Joined: 11/13/22

Mar 19, 2024, 9:59 PM

This thing has upset (according to Vegas) written all over it as they're setting New Mexico up for failure with all this hype.

One thing about seeding I seem to notice is that the committee doesn't value it as much as the bracketologists and fans do. Fans want their team to have a #6 seed more so than the #11 seed because, well it looks better for one. But what is the difference really? There's 93% chance you're still playing the #3 seee in the next round.

The committee creates matchups and field regions, first. Whether it's 6 through 10 or 7 through 11, all these teams are pretty much interchangeable. It's probably very difficult to fit every team on their exact seed line without some sort of conference conflict or first round matchuo with a team they played earlier in the season, etc.

I've read that BYU probably got a 6 seed instead of a 4 or 5 because of their "no Sunday rule". They also got matched up with a team that could have easily been a 13 seed.

I didn't think Michigan St belonged but felt, as most of us did, they'd get a play-in game. What they got was a possible 2nd round matchup with UNC and that's good for TV.

Gonzaga as a 5 seed seems highly questionable but how else would they've have gotten a matchup with McNeese St. Gonzaga, the original Cinderella with the newest of upstart programs and possible Cinderellas. A little more of the same in St. Mary's vs Grand Canyon.

Virginia vs Colorado St pits ACC vs Mountain West.... NC State vs Tex Tech pits ACC vs Big 12

Yale vs Auburn- two teams that couldn't be more opposite. Just like boxing matches, styles create fights.

Oregon vs. South Carolina- a team with tournament experience versus a team with none. Another 6 vs 11 that's way more evenly matched that many give it credit for.

Dayton⁷ vs Nevada¹⁰ is as evenly matched as any 8vs9

If anyone got a raw deal it was Wisconsin having to play James Madison.

Lone story short... it's a new season... forget the seeding, just win!

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The Athletic thinks our game is the most likely first round upset.

I expect an upset

The bottom line is that playing at this level requires a COACH

Re: The bottom line is that playing at this level requires a COACH

Re: I expect an upset