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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
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May 12, 2025, 8:50 AM
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US to move from 145% to 30% and China to move from 125% to 10%.
Hopefully, that means a "permanent" deal is realistic.
Markets are going to open "up" substantially today. I hope it holds!
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Oculus Spirit [39704]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
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May 12, 2025, 8:53 AM
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We did it everyone, well done Mr. Trump.
What did we achieve exactly? Have we been liberated?
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Ultimate Tiger [33024]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
May 12, 2025, 8:58 AM
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I would have to see some details, but from the basics this looks like it puts the US in a better situation than we were in with China pre Trump.
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Oculus Spirit [39704]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
May 12, 2025, 9:04 AM
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How so?
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Ultimate Tiger [33024]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
May 12, 2025, 9:35 AM
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I should say partially, because it looks like the Biden Chinese tariff on US exports averaged 20 percent and US Tariffs were around 19 percent. Either way, this is much less of a ridiculous situation than we were in last week.
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Game Changer [1959]
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Nope, we still have decent sized tariffs with China.
May 12, 2025, 9:07 AM
[ in reply to Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back.... ] |
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Just not as big as last week. We will likely have 10% across the board tariffs for all countries for most of Trump’s presidency- he loves tariffs for their own sake, not strictly as a means to achieve another goal. This will mean higher inflation, higher interest rates, slower growth and all that comes with that. Hopefully we get back to tariff levels from the Biden era, but I’m not optimistic, Trump loves them.
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Clemson Icon [25572]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
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May 12, 2025, 8:54 AM
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We should almost be back to break even in the S&P 500 today from when Trump started this term if things hold up today.
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Orange Elite [5155]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
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May 12, 2025, 9:02 AM
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Fingers crossed, Dow maybe back to above 45 soon too.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108458]
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We still haven't seen numbers impacted yet. That's starting next month
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May 12, 2025, 9:11 AM
[ in reply to Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back.... ] |
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and the months after. Supply chain impacts take 2 months, then several months after that for that to impact consumers and spending/prices/jobs.
Great time to buy was the last dip, but that time is limited, and we run a risk of overheating if numbers are impacted more than expected.
The fact we still hold a 10% tariff on our closest ally, even after a "final" deal, would indicate that I doubt anyone gets less than a 10% tariff from the US. So far that's 10% inflation on 16% of what calculates CPI, plus the higher numbers for some of the biggest countries we import from, and the disaster with China. So you can expect 20-30% at least impact on the 16-17% of the goods used to calculate CPI that are imported. That's 2-3% inflation, at least, on top of whatever level we would organically have anyway.
There is hope though, because if we sink into a recession, that inflation will be tempered, somewhat. If we don't sink into a recession, it could get ugly again as in 2022. If the fed drops rates, likewise, could get ugly.
We're still getting April's economic numbers, so like I said, the numbers catch up when May and June numbers come out in June and July.
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Paw Master [17208]
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Hes rUInInG the eConoMY!!!.***
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May 12, 2025, 9:02 AM
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Game Changer [1959]
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He sure hasnt helped it.***
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May 12, 2025, 9:12 AM
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Yeah...he sure seems to be trying...
May 12, 2025, 9:15 AM
[ in reply to Hes rUInInG the eConoMY!!!.*** ] |
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I'll wait until a final deal is struck to form a final opinion...but we suffered a lot already to get back to a point at which we started. That was NOT the only way to negotiate a trade deal with China...or any other country for that matter.
We had -2.7 pt swing in GDP from 24Q4 (+2.4%) to 25Q1 (-0.3%)...that is a very significant slowing of the economy.
Ruined? No
Severely injured? For sure
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Ultimate Tiger [33024]
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Re: Yeah...he sure seems to be trying...
May 12, 2025, 9:53 AM
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I think a good portion of the change in Q1 GDP was due to an increase in imports because of the planned tariffs at the time. So not a good situation, but probably not overall as bad as it looks.
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Sure that had some impact...
May 12, 2025, 10:49 AM
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and probably what took it negative, but it was going to slow substantially without the push on imports.
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Ultimate Tiger [33024]
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Orange Phenom [14158]
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Paw Warrior [5011]
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Re: hES mANIPULATING tHE mARKET tO pROFIT hIS cRONIES***
May 12, 2025, 9:42 AM
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I guess I must be one of his cronies then. I didn’t know but by your definition I must be.
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Orange Phenom [14158]
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A lot of people have started playing the volatility game with donnys erratic
May 12, 2025, 10:06 AM
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Behavior; I'm also using ETFs to capitalize on the fraud. Rest assured the piddly little dollars we've made pales in comparison to the billions donny's handlers are making with the insider info they have as the leaders of this regime
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Paw Warrior [5011]
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Re: A lot of people have started playing the volatility game with donnys erratic
May 12, 2025, 11:16 AM
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Well I’m making money and I fully expect to make a lot more over the next few years. All good in my book.
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Orange Phenom [14158]
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This what the market looks like under donny the volatility aint likely to change
May 12, 2025, 11:41 AM
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We're not quite back to flat from where it was when he took office, but if you've successfully rode the upstate and downs congrats
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Paw Warrior [5011]
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Re: This what the market looks like under donny the volatility aint likely to change
May 12, 2025, 11:45 AM
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I’m about even now to where I was a couple months ago. Similar to most people who didn’t panic and stayed invested I assume. But my optimism is that I truly believe a foundation is being put in place for good things to happen.
But I have also made pretty good on some stocks I bought a month ago when the market looked like crap.
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Orange Phenom [14158]
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Unfortunately I don't share your optimism
May 12, 2025, 12:14 PM
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Earnings season on Wall Street is just starting and if there is any room still for fundamentals that will result in a price correction. Revenue damage from tariffs has already taken, and its about to be reported. Wild volatility is gonna be the norm throughout donnys term.
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Paw Warrior [5011]
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Re: Unfortunately I don't share your optimism
May 12, 2025, 12:17 PM
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I do expect more volubility. But I expect an upward trend overall. Let’s see how it pans out. I’ve always been an optimist and patient with investing regardless of who is in the White House.
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Tiger Titan [48728]
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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I don't...I think it has more to do with what CEO's told Trump is about to...
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May 12, 2025, 9:24 AM
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happen regarding inflation and supply/availability of products.
145% is insanity
30% is just regular crazy
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Ring of Honor [22211]
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So what youre saying
May 12, 2025, 9:33 AM
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145% is like a “super” crazy hawt bish that you take a pass on for your own safety.
30% is like a moderately crazy bish that is worth the risk?
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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I just don't think he really cares about that
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May 12, 2025, 9:52 AM
[ in reply to I don't...I think it has more to do with what CEO's told Trump is about to... ] |
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from the pre-inauguration days, they've been hell bent on getting the 10 yr to 3%.
We can't do that without buyers.
The day after the tariffs, foreign CB's were dumping notes left and right. The Fed stepped in last week and bought ~$45B, per a few reports I saw.
10 yr @ 3% is hyper critical to expediting investment and increasing velocity of capital to truly see growth in on-shoring production back here.
I'm still sitting in the camp that the extraordinarily high tariff environment was deflationary. Due to the fact that, broadly speaking, investment / velocity of capital was ground to a halt. This move will cause markets to rip, yields to rise, oil to rise, etc. further continuing the out of control asset inflation while not doing anything for the COGS for Main St.
In my opinion we need to break that economic conundrum. But it will be painful.
We're not going to. Status quo, baby. Buncha softass mf'ers.
Edit to Add: I have a lot of confidence in Bessent. Moreso than anyone else, really, in any administration as far back as I can remember. Dude understands the bond markets better than probably anyone out there. I'll wait and see what he's got, but obvious / smart money says he's caving to the status quo.
Message was edited by: dawghater23®
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108458]
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What Trump and his tariff advisor, and his tariff advisor's
May 12, 2025, 10:28 AM
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imaginary colleague didn't expect, was a drop in the dollar.
The 10 year treasuries have not behaved normally ever since the last round of fed rate cuts. The 10y treasuries never dropped. But when Trump came in, pissed off NATO, just about every ally we had, ditched Ukraine, and then went on a tariff spree tariffing the entire world, that caused a MASSIVE loss of confidence in the US dollar. Japan, of all people, sold the most. When Japan sold a ton of treasuries, and the 10y yield spiked, that's when Bessent got to Trump's ear and told him to back off.
The whole reason we have a trade deficit is because of our strong dollar. Keep in mind, as trade deficits relate to LABOR, currency differences are NOT factored into the trade deficit numbers. LABORLABORLABORLABLRLABORLABORLAB......I'll say it a million times until SOMEONE gets it.
China has a 4-1 labor to dollar return on OUR investment in THEIR exports (our imports). The average Chinese worker makes $16K a year. Average American makes $65K. $100 US dollars, sent to China to make widgets, results in China exporting, to the US, what would be $400 of widgets (if we made them). For the purposes of our trade deficit, that's $+100. For the purposes of our LABOR DEFICIT, that's +$400.
Currency differences, and wage differences, result in a multiplication of the labor when it comes to imports. $1T extra sent to China nets $4T in goods we get, and in that huge profit margin lies entire industries. Shipping, marketing, transportation, profit margins for US companies, stock prices, etc.
Average US worker wage is $65K a year. Go google around the world to see what average workers are paid (in dollars) in Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, india, Vietnam, and other countries we trade heavily with. Our dollars flow to the cheapest (labor) country that has the capacity/stability/infrastructure in place to make what we need. What we can't import cheaper, we make those items here.
No one thinks in terms of labor anymore. If you have $1 million and you want to make plastic Tonka trucks, Tonka can make 50,000 of them at a US plant with US workers, paying US wages for that $1 million. Tonka can also take that $1 million, pay a Chinese plant paying chinese workers, and import 200,000 Tonka Trucks. At $20 a truck the profit margin is break even if you make it in the US (zero), or make a $4 MILLION profit if you get them from China. Tariffs are an artificial barrier in this system. It is imposed at the point of import. It will not impact the wages Chinese companies pay workers, or the cost of the product on their end. It is assessed at the point of import. So that cost is borne by the importer, the trucking companies, the store selling the Tonka truck, and ultimately the consumer. It hits trucking jobs, it hits profit margins of US companies, and it hits US consumers. IF you get tariffs to a point where importing them from China becomes prohibitive, then that LABOR COST for domestic manufacturing gets FULLY passed on to the consumer, or subtracted from Tonka's profits. Your $1 million then buys $50,000 Tonka trucks, and to retain profit margins for Tonka, that truck must sell for $80.
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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You bring up a good point
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May 12, 2025, 10:51 AM
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Tonka Trucks were originally made in good ole Minnesota.
In 1970, a Tonka Truck sold for ~$5-$10. Let's go with $10.
In 2025 dollars, a $10 Tonka truck would sell for $82.42. (good call, amigo)
So, 50 years ago, an $82 Tonka truck was accepted in the market place (adjusting for inflation).
Now, a Tonka truck (according to Amazon), is ~$30, with much higher margins (as a %), providing much less benefit to the American economy.
What happened?
This is a symptom of hyper-financialization over the past 3-4 generations. Thanks Boomers.
We've gone back and forth on this many a time, haha.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108458]
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What happened is Tonka started making them in China or Mexico
May 12, 2025, 11:32 AM
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leveraging the STRENGTH of the dollar internationally, while deflating its value domestically. That Tonka truck would be $80 to make today, in the US. It's $15 or so on Amazon because it's NOT MADE IN THE USA. It is made with cheaper labor, less regulations, less overhead, and that makes it cheaper here.
The dollar has deflated MASSIVELY, INSIDE the US. But as the value has DEFLATED inside the US, it has actually inflated in many other countries.
This imbalance is exactly how 330 million Americans can CONSUME more than 3.5 BILLION other humans on this planet. And when you convert this to LABOR, the US controls more human labor than any other empire in history....an argument I will make until someone can prove otherwise. The US has acquired more labor, and more resources, leveraging our currency, than any other nation or empire has ever acquired using a military.
Our ONLY weakness, in this system we have designed, created, facilitated, and run for decades is really two things. Human nature, and our legislative branch. With such a powerful currency comes a great responsibly to use it wisely, and not misuse it. As the dollar has deflated INSIDE the US, we have leveraged that deflationary pressure to take on massive debt. Mostly, our governemnt. And mostly Congress is at fault.
Just think of this. You're a company. You can take out a $100 million loan at say, 3.5% interest, you can then take that $100 million, send it to China, and get back $400 million in Tonka Trucks, plastic Barbie and Ken houses, paddle boards, doll houses, plastic GI Joe dolls with the kung-fu grip, and battery powered scooters. You sell all of it, pocket $400 million, pay back your $103 million loan, and are left with $297 million to leverage to take out the next loan, and pay your executives exorbitant salaries, and dividends to stock investors, as you buy back your stock to limit availability of stock to boost the price, upon which you can leverage MORE debt.
Easy, cheap DOMESTIC debt, along with a strong dollar, makes all of this what we enjoy, and what we take for granted. Burt alas, we have been unwise in using our advantage in a pragmatic way. So anyway.........
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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correct. to sum that entire post up in one word
May 12, 2025, 11:43 AM
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financialization
We lost the dollar 54 years ago.
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Sounds a bit hyperbolic to me***
May 12, 2025, 12:31 PM
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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you mean parabolic?
May 12, 2025, 2:12 PM
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108458]
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Re: you mean alcoholic?
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May 12, 2025, 5:09 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Yeah, I sure don't see it that way...
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May 12, 2025, 10:40 AM
[ in reply to I just don't think he really cares about that ] |
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I think the tariffs and as importantly, the haphazard way they've been implemented (and then changed/paused) creates more uncertainty that limits capital investment in manufacturing. No one is going to be able to sell an expansion project on the tariff climate alone right now...heck the situation is going to be different by the time a slide deck is finished.
There was already a fairly robust onshoring initiative pre-Trump 2nd term based on supply-chain security concerns post-covid. We were opening up OEM customers that had previously been heavily pivoted towards low first-cost focus out of Asia over the last 2-3 years. Just about every major OEM in our sector was going 3 deep on suppliers for critical components. Now, they don't know what to do and there has been less activity and not more over the past 3-4 months.
And I dang sure don't think the high tariff environment has been deflationary. Quite the opposite. I think our only hope not to take a big hit in Q2 is the amount of inventory that was accelerated to beat the tariff hitting in Q1 can hold until supply returns during this pause. I think it's going to be tight.
I agree on Bessent. It was painful watching him try to defend/explain Trump's policy in front of Congress. You KNOW he didn't actually believe what he was attempting to explain.
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Top TigerNet [30197]
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I mean, to be fair, what you're saying here
May 12, 2025, 11:03 AM
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is deflationary, by definition.
https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-forum/message/yeah...he-sure-seems-to-be-trying...-36833107
We had -2.7 pt swing in GDP from 24Q4 (+2.4%) to 25Q1 (-0.3%)...that is a very significant slowing of the economy.
And yes, lol at this: heck the situation is going to be different by the time a slide deck is finished
Fun times. I've been fortunate enough to have my wife as a basis point on this topic.
I think those of you in SC area are very blessed. You're right, in that, there is absolutely an explosion of investment happening in the SE to onshore mfg. However, this really only applies to the B2B industrial verticals (which is fine by me) and not retail / CPG / apparel.
In order for this to truly scale, and for us to compete, we need the cost of capital to decrease. Very disappointed in the SBA program to onshore in two ways 1) $10M isn't enough and 2) should've been announced the day after "liberation day" or whateverthefuck. THAT would be inflationary.
As the only American shop in town (now that I got my new job) my phone's ringing off the hook. However, we're still married to China too. Solving this has been one of the most fun 6 weeks of my very young career. But to your point, everyone's pressing the pause button. Again, that's evidence of a deflationary environment.
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Ultimate Tiger [35023]
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Well yeah...I was assuming it was a given that we don't want to...
May 12, 2025, 11:18 AM
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accomplish deflationary pressure by tanking GDP growth and capital investment.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [108458]
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I think both of you are on the right track, but are slightly missing the point.
May 12, 2025, 11:07 AM
[ in reply to Yeah, I sure don't see it that way... ] |
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How are markets measured? How are stocks valued? How is real estate valued? How is net worth valued? How is trade valued? How is inflation valued? How is your work/job valued? How are treasuries valued? How are profits valued? How are taxes valued?
There is one common denominator for each and every one of these things. Americans uniquely can't seem to think beyond this simple, arbitrary thing. THE DOLLAR. Most people think it's solid, set in stone, consistent, strong, and is what the value of EVERYTHING is based on.
The US dollar is a currency, just like hundreds of others around the world. It works on the same rules as other currencies, and enjoys a unique status because it is the "American" dollar. But that value is a mindset. Minds can change.
When Trump entered office he has destroyed and changed MANY things. He's destroyed alliances, allies, trade, foreign relations, among many other things. The world has traditionally looked to America, of ALL PLACES, for stability and strength. Enter Trump. Wants to ditch NATO, doesn't think we should protect anyone, or anything, beyond our borders. And the world sees this just as the markets see this, as INSTABILITY, unpredictability, and weakness. As Trump punished the entire world in the arena of a trade war for no apparent reason, and punished AMERICANS actually in doing this, people lost faith in THE UNITED STATES. And when that happens, they lose faith in the US currency, the dollar. And this is being reflected in Treasuries first. Treasuries are a long term bet, and they're based on long term FEELINGS about the US dollar. When Trump enters office and essentially attacks the world in an isolationist paranoia, the world takes note, and recoils. They no longer want to invest in, or buy US debt, or dollars.
Most Americans think of inflation in dollars. Most people think of trade in dollars. The dollar's value, just like many companies, rest on the honor, candor, truthfulness, honesty, and integrity of the person leading the company, or nation. A good part of the value of our dollar is based on the assumption the US could never elect a bad leader, a tyrant, or anyone who would hurt the nation, or other allies.
So Trump has a much bigger problem than our debt or our trade deficit, he has a DOLLAR PROBLEM. It's just starting, but given the way Trump has led to date, that DOLLAR PROBLEM is not going away, and it can literally destroy our economy. He's threatening to fire Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, whose MAIN PURPOSE, above all else, is to protect the dollar, and he will at all costs. Trump doesn't care, like the guy up the board said about dems.
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TigerNet Champion [121188]
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If Powell ever gets the axe in favor of a Trump loyalist
May 12, 2025, 12:29 PM
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I may just leverage myself with massive amounts of personal debt in anticipation of hyperinflation.
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Orange Phenom [14158]
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If donnys regime hadn't already crippled the law enforcement departments
May 12, 2025, 9:30 AM
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Responsible for policing the securities market an investigation of his blatant market manipulation would already be underway.
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Clemson Sports Icon [52710]
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Trying to job my memory here, but isn't that what we had before all this?***
May 12, 2025, 9:55 AM
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TigerNet Champion [121188]
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Re: Good news...US/China agree to a 90-day tariff roll-back....
May 12, 2025, 12:27 PM
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Here we are, almost 3rd quarter, and small businesses are finally getting a glimpse of what the playing field looks like and how to react, assuming they have not already failed, or taken on massive debt sitting on the sidelines waiting.
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