Re: What is the ACC doing to add Quality

UNC, Virginia, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech will all remain and nothing will change in the ACC for the next six years. There will be more money due to the playoff expansion and ACC Network, but it will still be far below the Big and SEC. Just like now, the above mentioned teams will continue back channel discussions with the SEC and BIG and those discussions will intensify as of 2031 and only five years out of the end of GOR.
The penalty money as a result of moving gets smaller each year and by 2032, some of the above teams and the conference they are going to, will be close to announcing like Texas and Oklahoma did. They will announce in about 2032. At that point, they will negotiate with the ACC and stay a year or two, then pay like Tex and OK. They will leave for their new destinations in about 2034. At that point, any penalty or GOR money would pale in comparison to what they would stand to gain.
That gives us 11 years to still be the big fish in a small pond and go to playoffs in expanded form and maybe grab another title or two. Then, like the others above, we would make our way to the BIG or SEC.
I'd rather stay in ACC if it could become an equal to the other two. Only way for that is if Notre Dame and West Virginia were to be invited and join. Who knows, if it seriously looks like the conference is losing the big teams in 2033 or 2034, then Notre Dame may decide to join to make it three power conferences, without them having to be just another also ran in the other two leagues.
A 16 team ACC with Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina. NC State, Pitt. West Virginia, Duke (basketball), Georgia Tech (atlanta market) would be as attractive as BIG and SEC. Maybe not quite as good as SEC on field, but definitely as good as BIG and definitely a power three.
Everyone says Penn State would never leave BIG. Who knows, if the ACC had Notre Dame and ESPN was willing to make the money as good as BIG , then Penn State might want more fertile recruiting grounds of ACC and out of shadow of Michigan, Ohio State, Southern Cal. They may flip. And ESPN may make the money really irresistible because they could have two of the power three and leave Fox with one of power three, minus Penn State.
But I do think the scenario above of the big ACC teams leaving in the early 30s is more likely scenario. But i would prefer the latter scenario of a power three.

fchrisgrimm

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Let's all be realistic. And not panic.

Feb 11, 2023, 1:39 PM

There aren't any quality programs available outside of Notre Dame. And Notre Dame isn't joining in football (why should they, if they really just need to target one of the at-large bids every year?). (Let's pretend the Pac-12 falls apart. Does any team in the Pac-12 make sense to the ACC? We all love Washington and Oregon, but how do they fit in our conference in the slightest?)

What the ACC has to do right now - and they have been doing it - is make every effort to maximize playoff revenues. It won't close the gap of the conference television contracts, but it will close the relative gaps to other conferences.

What we shouldn't do is add teams that don't add enough value to the conference to move the needle on television revenue for the existing members. Again, that's Notre Dame and nobody else who would consider the move. (No, Penn State is not going to remotely consider leaving the B1G for the ACC.)

The conference should look for ways to enhance revenues through the ACCN. I have no idea what those plans should be.

Right now, everyone in the league is stuck, but at the same time it prevents anyone from leaving and keeps the conference stable. Yeah, we now look at the contract and GOR and say "we're way behind the B1G and SEC," but at the time we were most concerned about losing other teams (after Maryland left), the GOR guaranteed that members wouldn't leave, the only way to get the GOR was to launch the ACCN, and the only way to launch the ACCN was to extend the exclusive contract with ESPN.

Keep in mind that the new Big-12 deal, which everyone is surprised is paying that conference so much, is still going to pay less per team than the ACC deal. We're #3.

So my advice to the conference would be sit tight... for (gulp) ten years. Don't add members that aren't Power Conference worthy. (The frustrating thing is that we have added great programs over the years - Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech - but they haven't always played well once they hit the conference.) Also, don't add any teams that aren't geographic fits. I can't believe that we looked at SMU. Even if we found a sensible geographic partner for them - let's say Memphis - do we really think ESPN is going to reopen our TV deal to pay for SMU and Memphis? Is anyone at the House of Mouse saying "we have exclusive ACC rights at a good price for more than a decade more. Let's try to pay them more!"

ALSO (and this is going to the "Clemson and Florida State should move to the SEC" crowd). ESPN has exclusive rights to the ACC. ESPN (starting in 2024) also has exclusive rights to the SEC. Does anyone think that ESPN wants to pay more for the Clemson games to which they already own the rights?

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What is the ACC doing to add Quality