What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Sep 7, 2018, 9:53 AM

Okay so, statistically speaking, the chances of having four undefeated teams in one season is HIGHLY unlikely; no matter the circumstances. So, I’m not arguing that this is a likely scenario, but maybe just an increase of the chances: Do you think – after watching week 1 and knowing what we already know – the chances of potentially having FOUR undefeated teams in the playoff this year have gone up??

After watching week 1, and knowing what we already know of these teams, it appears that there are four teams whom have seemingly separated themselves from “the rest of the pack.” Those four teams are (at least from my perspective) Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma.

So, go with me here…

ALABAMA:

• I think it’s totally fair to say that year-in-and-year-out Alabama has the most talented roster of any team in CFB; and I think this year is no different. Except, instead of having an anemic offense and a questionable QB situation to hold them back, Alabama seemingly has a dynamic QB and offense to go along with their always top 5 defense.

• Outside of @ LSU (who knows what they are at this point…), Miss St, and Auburn, Alabama’s schedule is very manageable/easy (shocking being in the SEC, I know…). As it stands, Bama only plays ONE ranked team on the road (LSU), and their other two toughest opponents are at home at the end of the year (Miss St and Auburn). I truly think Auburn, assuming they continue their trend of playing their best at the end of the year, is the only team in the regular season that can beat them. Obviously, Bama may have the toughest Conference championship game though (assuming it’s against Georgia).

CLEMSON:

• No offense to previous Tiger teams, but from top-to-bottom, this may be Dabo’s most talented, experienced, and deepest team yet. In all three phases, there are seemingly little-to-no question marks. As long as the QB situation becomes settled soon, in the best scenario (which, I think it will), Clemson has arguably the best roster situation in the nation.

• Looking at the schedule, Clemson already had a relatively easy schedule comparative to previous years, but – after watching week 1 – Clemson’s scheduling seemingly became a lot easier. Syracuse, Wake Forest, NC State, FSU (especially…), and Louisville all looked average-to-really bad (and, no offense, who will be afraid of whatever team wins the ACC Costal?). As the year progresses, the teams on Clemson’s schedule could improve, but at first glance, an undefeated Clemson season looks all the more likely as long as we get past A&M this weekend (fingers crossed we don’t pull a “Pitt 2016” or “Cuse 2017”!)

OHIO STATE

• Similar to Alabama and Clemson, OSU has one of the most talented and least questionable rosters in all of CFB. If there are any questions, they’ll have very talented players ready to answer them. I know their team could potentially allow the Meyer situation to distract them, but now that the season has begun, they can become more focused. With a seemingly good-to-potentially-great QB situation and amazing D-Line (behind Clemson's of course), they are stacked.

• Similar to Clemson, after week 1, OSU’s schedule seemingly became a lot easier. OSU certainly has a tougher schedule overall, playing in the Big 10 East, but after watching some of the tougher teams on their schedule play week 1, their schedule lost some of its luster. PSU, MSU, and Michigan all looked very bad week 1, and unless something changes, OSU clearly looks better than those teams. Outside of a neutral site match up with TCU, who else truly looks to be straight-up competitive with OSU this season? Plus, with an all-but-given match up with Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship, did Wisconsin look improved enough from last year to compete with OSU this time?

OKLAHOMA

• While not having as talented of a roster compared to Bama, Clem, and OSU, Oklahoma is not all that far behind. While having bigger question marks, Oklahoma had, in my opinion, one of the most impressive performances in week 1 by blowing out a pretty solid FAU squad. Plus, the most encouraging aspect from week 1 is that Kyler Murray looks as advertised; if not better than advertised. Given their potential deficiencies elsewhere, having stellar QB play can cover up a lot of lacking (as we Clemson fans know).

• While you can argue that Bama’s, Clem’s, and OSU’s schedules have gotten easier after watching week 1, it’s tougher to tell with Oklahoma’s. Their back-end schedule of @ TCU, Oklahoma St, and @ WVU seems pretty daunting, but we’ll find out more as the season progresses. Although, just comparing those teams to the Sooners, they appear to be the better overall team; especially if their defense continues its positive trend after containing a pretty good FAU offense.

Obviously, once again, it’s VERY EARLY and having FOUR undefeated teams is VERY UNLIKELY, especially given top team’s propensity (especially Clemson’s, unfortunately) to randomly play poorly and drop games to unlikely opponents; and just the rigors or unfortunate injuries that come with a college football season.

Regardless, I just thought it was an interesting scenario and entertaining thought to discuss…

Anywho, go Tigers and God bless!

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I am ducking the question, but i am countering with a contrarian observation in the same line of thought:

Instead of opening up the possibilities for more teams to win a national title, the CFP has reduced drastically the pool of teams that can win a natty. By forcing teams to run a gauntlet schedule of winner-moves-on, we have established a separate pool for the elite programs that can consistently play and win at a high level.

Unlike previous methods of choosing a championship, Miami (for example) last year had no shot at the national championship. No amount of luck or skill was going to give them the talent, coaching, depth or temperament to beat 2 other top teams, even if they had gotten past Clemson. But when champions were chosen instead of proven, Richt's guys would have been a top nominee.

That's what makes it even funnier when players who have never played for a chip talk about having the talent on their team to win one. They don't know that it takes more than talent, and it takes more than one big win. So if Baby Bentley's chickens knock off the Dawgs tomorrow, you know they and their fans will be squawking about getting into the CFP. In the end, you can squawk all you want, but a CFP chip takes at least 13 wins, and the last 3 are win-or-go-home against teams at least as tough as Saturday's opponent.

So i agree with you, OP. As the elite teams separate themselves more, i think the possibility of two unbeaten teams meeting in the CFP Title game increases rather than decreases.

What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

0.0045%***

A much much higher chance of zero undefeated teams***

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Teams will have a hiccup somewhere along the way. I don't

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

espy experts said Mich was gonna Winn natty - not sure why

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

Re: What are the chances of FOUR undefeated teams?? TLDR

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