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Devotee [203]
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Some early lines.. A couple surprises -
Jul 30, 2012, 10:55 PM
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Clem -3.5 vs Aub
Tenn -7 vs State
Vatech -7.5 vs Ga tech
FSU -13 vs Clem
Clem vs SC even
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Orange Blooded [3575]
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Unless we crap the bed against Auburn...
Jul 30, 2012, 11:02 PM
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there is no way that line will be that high.
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Orange Blooded [3575]
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Re: Unless we crap the bed against Auburn...
Jul 30, 2012, 11:03 PM
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I meant the line against FSU
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Devotee [203]
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Re: Unless we crap the bed against Auburn...
Jul 30, 2012, 11:07 PM
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I was amazed that the same odds-maker has the FSU one and USC that far apart. I realize one is away and one is home, but that is vegas really thinking FSU will be a contender this year.
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Orange Blooded [2457]
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Even if FSU beats us
Jul 30, 2012, 11:38 PM
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no way it is by 13. The money seems too easy there...
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CU Guru [1270]
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Re: Some early lines.. Vegas
Jul 30, 2012, 11:46 PM
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One has to remember that the purpose of the line is not to predict the outcome of the game, but to intice bets on the games. If you ever have a chance to look at some of the more local cards, you will see that the line is different on a game from one region to another. Remember,odds makers don't want to be right. What they want to be is on the right side of the line. If a 13 point spread against FSU gets everyone to bet for the Tigers and we get within 13 they win the tie. If we get closer, they still win. If we win, they win.The only way that the bookie loses if if the Noles win by more than 13. With all of the press for FSU and at Doak, people will jump all over it. We win or play close, the bookie wins. If you want to have a chance against the line, never bet with your heart and never bet for your home team. In my heart, I take CU and 13 over FSU any day, but I don't bet with my heart.
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Orange Blooded [3881]
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true----when betting, it is wise to take the points when
Jul 31, 2012, 6:21 AM
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reasonable
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Devotee [203]
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Re:
Jul 31, 2012, 1:12 PM
[ in reply to Re: Some early lines.. Vegas ] |
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Just thought it was good food for thought. I thought that NC State seemed to be getting a lot as well.
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Legend [18135]
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Re: Some early lines.. Vegas
Jul 31, 2012, 1:33 PM
[ in reply to Re: Some early lines.. Vegas ] |
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> One has to remember that the purpose of the line is
> not to predict the outcome of the game, but to intice
> bets on the games. If you ever have a chance to look
> at some of the more local cards, you will see that
> the line is different on a game from one region to
> another. Remember,odds makers don't want to be right.
> What they want to be is on the right side of the
> line. If a 13 point spread against FSU gets everyone
> to bet for the Tigers and we get within 13 they win
> the tie. If we get closer, they still win. If we win,
> they win.The only way that the bookie loses if if the
> Noles win by more than 13. With all of the press for
> FSU and at Doak, people will jump all over it. We win
> or play close, the bookie wins. If you want to have a
> chance against the line, never bet with your heart
> and never bet for your home team. In my heart, I take
> CU and 13 over FSU any day, but I don't bet with my
> heart.
Don't you kinda have to predict the outcome in order to set a line that will entice equal betting, though? I know the line moves according to the amount of betting on each team, but they do have to open with a prediction of the spread, right?
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