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Replies: 37
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Win and we are in... Not so fast
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Oct 20, 2024, 2:03 PM
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Assuming Clemson, Miami and SMU all win out
This has been discussed and most agree we will go to the 5th tie breaker as found here:
https://theacc.com/documents/2023/5/17/ACC_FOOTBALL_TIEBREAKER_POLICY.pdf
Which is:
5. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
I have a spreadsheet set up to track it and here are this week's standings:
Clemson: 37.0%
Miami: 33.0%
SMU: 38.7%
Using warrennolan.com predictions (although they predict SMU losing by 1 point at Duke I flipped it to a SMU win), here are the predicted standings:
Clemson: 28.8%
Miami: 36.3%
SMU: 33.8%
In this scenario, we do not make the ACCCG. We likely still make the CFP, but we do NOT control our own destiny. So, win and we are in... not so fast.
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110%er [3641]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
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5
Oct 20, 2024, 2:10 PM
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I nice reminder why conference divisions were the norm once conferences got too big for everyone to play each other. These unbalanced schedules are less than ideal.
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Rival Killer [2710]
TigerPulse: 100%
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highly unlikely all 3 teams will be undefeated by then anyway..
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Oct 20, 2024, 2:17 PM
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not saying it won't happen but:
Miami - easily could have lost to VTech(stolen by refs), Cal(down by several scores in 1st half), Louis(was neck and neck in 4th qtr...also aided by refs). Their luck is likely to run out soon.
SMU - still have Duke and Pitt; also BC/UVA/Cal (not slam dunks).
Pitt (don't forget about them they are undefeated and should be looped together with the 3 teams above)
Clemson still has Louis, at Pitt and at VTech. Any first Qtr slip-ups against these teams could give us a loss and, at best, would get us into a dogfight.
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: highly unlikely all 3 teams will be undefeated by then anyway..
Oct 20, 2024, 2:37 PM
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I have Pitt in my spreadsheet and they currently lead at 43.3%; however, they have to play at SMU and they have to play the Tigers... and I just assumed those will both be losses for them.
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Ring of Honor [21068]
TigerPulse: 100%
53
Posts: 12766
Joined: 2018
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Re: highly unlikely all 3 teams will be undefeated by then anyway..
Oct 20, 2024, 2:39 PM
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You know what they say about assumptions...
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Freshman [2]
TigerPulse: 93%
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Re: highly unlikely all 3 teams will be undefeated by then anyway..
Oct 20, 2024, 2:49 PM
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Yeah ! everybody has assumptions.
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Rival Killer [2983]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Game Changer [2060]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Good work.
4
Oct 20, 2024, 2:20 PM
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In your scenario; If we get an at large, do we have a better chance to host or will we be traveling to someone else’s?
Hosting a playoff does sound awesome
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: Good work.
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Oct 20, 2024, 2:51 PM
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I am not sure where we would end up if we sat out of the ACCCG, but the predicted ELO on warrennolan.com has us at 7 at the end of the regular season so we should host a game. There are two teams each from the SEC and B1G ahead of us that should play each other in their conference championship games and one B12 behind us the could jump us. So, between 5 and 8 (therefore hosting), if everything plays out as predicted.
Would you trade an ACCC Trophy for a home playoff game? Yes, for me (once).
What I would really like is for us to win the ACCCG, and somehow Boise State (MW) to win out an jump us so we are the 5th highest ranked conference champion sliding in at the 5th best ranking and hosting a playoff game. Crazy talk; I know.
Go Tigers
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [98664]
TigerPulse: 100%
64
Posts: 97924
Joined: 2009
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I'd rather have the bye but I along with all fans would love to see a PO game...
Oct 20, 2024, 4:00 PM
[ in reply to Good work. ] |
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in The real Death Valley. History in the making.
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Hall of Famer [9036]
TigerPulse: 100%
43
Posts: 10704
Joined: 2003
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But that is all you can do, so dont worry about it.
Oct 20, 2024, 2:43 PM
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Control what you can control!
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All-In [10340]
TigerPulse: 100%
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In the very unlikely situation that Miami, SMU and Pitt win out, it would
1
Oct 20, 2024, 2:52 PM
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It would actually be an advantage to be the 3rd team and left out of ACC Championship game.
Hear me out.
If you go to the championship game and lose, let's say to Miami, Clemson would have a 2nd loss (1 more than both Miami an SMU).
So, IF the ACC were to get two teams in, the team that did not play (in this case SMU) would only have 1 loss and probably would get the 2nd playoff bid.
In the very unlikely scenario all 3 go undefeated, the team that will get left out (IMO) is the loser of the ACC Championship, not the team that was left out.
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: In the very unlikely situation that Miami, SMU and Pitt win out, it would
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Oct 20, 2024, 3:02 PM
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In your scenario, what if Miami loses in a close game to Clemson? Clemson obviously goes, but who gets the second spot? Miami at 12-1 or SMU at 11-1 (lost to BYU)? The predictor says Miami. I tend to agree with it.
But what if Miami loses in a close game to SMU? The predictor says Miami still.
With that said, the predictor is somewhat random because you can run the same scenario and get somewhat different results.
Fun to think about... until you start adding in stuff like, what if Cam Ward goes down and Alabama only has two losses...
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Game Changer [2060]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I believe if we win we are in
Oct 22, 2024, 5:38 PM
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Only negative scenario I see is 3 win out, SMU Miami win tiebreakers and play for acc champ. Miami loses ((maybe in overtime) to smu. I think the committee could put a one loss Miami ahead of Clemson.
It also may be 3 acc teams????? That would melt the espn/sec brains
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Game Changer [2076]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: I believe if we win we are in
Oct 22, 2024, 6:47 PM
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It would be 3 acc at that point
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Freshman [10]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: In the very unlikely situation that Miami, SMU and Pitt win out, it would
Oct 22, 2024, 5:44 PM
[ in reply to In the very unlikely situation that Miami, SMU and Pitt win out, it would ] |
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I heard that on 105.5 and it makes sense , if we lose ACC. Championship we are probably done
It will all work out , after the crazy games college football has thrown at us this year who knows
Who will be left lol. Go Tigers
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Legend [6807]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
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Oct 20, 2024, 2:59 PM
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Both Miami and SMU will not win out.
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All-In [10340]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Agree.***
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Oct 20, 2024, 3:05 PM
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Clemson Conqueror [11125]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 20, 2024, 3:06 PM
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Wait. You just said “we still get in” so which is it? Win and in or win and not so fast. Stop counting chickens before they hatch. Miami is a hot mess on defense. They could easily drop one of their four remaining games. They are two blown replays away from having two losses this season against inferior competition. You better believe the Blue devils will be fired up to play Diaz’s former team. When you play with fire you will get burned at some point. You also haven’t factored in Pitt. They play at SMU and I see that as a Pitt win. Duke, BC, Pitt and UVA aren’t all gimme’s either.
We need to worry about what we control. We can’t control what Pitt, SMU, or Miami does. We just continue to take care of business and put ourselves into the best opportunity possible. If it’s missing the ACCCG so be it. Just go make noise in the playoff. Keep winning and we’re in. Whether it’s as a conference champion or highest ranked at large. If the season needed today, we are in.
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 20, 2024, 4:10 PM
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Wait. You just said “we still get in” so which is it? Win and in or win and not so fast. Stop counting chickens before they hatch. Miami is a hot mess on defense. They could easily drop one of their four remaining games. They are two blown replays away from having two losses this season against inferior competition. You better believe the Blue devils will be fired up to play Diaz’s former team. When you play with fire you will get burned at some point. You also haven’t factored in Pitt. They play at SMU and I see that as a Pitt win. Duke, BC, Pitt and UVA aren’t all gimme’s either.
We need to worry about what we control. We can’t control what Pitt, SMU, or Miami does. We just continue to take care of business and put ourselves into the best opportunity possible. If it’s missing the ACCCG so be it. Just go make noise in the playoff. Keep winning and we’re in. Whether it’s as a conference champion or highest ranked at large. If the season needed today, we are in.
Not sure where I said "we still get in" without some caveat. This is what I said, "In this scenario, we do not make the ACCCG. We LIKELY still make the CFP, but we do NOT control our own destiny. So, 'win and we are in... not so fast'."
So, IMHO we get in, but the comment "Not so fast" directly agrees with your "Stop counting chickens before the hatch." We cannot say for certain that if we win we are in. In fact, you cannot say for sure that if the season ended today, we are in because you do not know what the CFP voters think. They do not go by the AP or Coaches poll. If they go by the SOR (13th) we are NOT in. BTW, I totally agree with everything regarding other teams losing, but I started with "assuming Clemson, Miami and SMU all win out."
Go Tigers, control what you control and enjoy the journey.
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Campus Hero [14079]
TigerPulse: 90%
48
Posts: 15165
Joined: 2004
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 20, 2024, 3:13 PM
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All I got to say regarding that this coming weekend is, Go Duke!
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Ring of Honor [21068]
TigerPulse: 100%
53
Posts: 12766
Joined: 2018
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
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Oct 20, 2024, 3:14 PM
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An interesting scenario would be if all 3 win out, you'd have 2 undefeated teams in Miami and SMU and a 1-loss team in us. If we stay home for the championship, then either Miami or SMU lose and you have the undefeated ACC champion, and 2 teams with one loss. Among those 2 teams, who would go to the playoff? Would the runner up go, or would they skip over the runner up and take us? Or, might they take neither?
This is just where my skepticism kicks in when it comes to this committee deciding our fate...
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
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Legend [6818]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 22, 2024, 5:30 PM
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SMU is not undefeated
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Dynasty Maker [3246]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Your first line says it all, "Assuming they all win out..."
Oct 20, 2024, 3:53 PM
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It could happen, but odds are that there will be a loss our two in there...
Could be us, could be Miami or SMU. It's hard to go undefeated (or undefeated in conference play.)
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Ring of Honor [21068]
TigerPulse: 100%
53
Posts: 12766
Joined: 2018
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Re: Your first line says it all, "Assuming they all win out..."
Oct 20, 2024, 7:12 PM
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I definitely agree it is highly unlikely but what a mess if it actually played out that way.
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Wait a minute . . . aren't those numbers off ?
Oct 20, 2024, 3:57 PM
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(1) First of all, I have a question. Just to be clear, are we understanding the #5 tie breaker to refer only to the **conference** games of our conference opponents, rather than their overall winning percentages? I took it to mean conference games only, and while it does not say that, but I can't imagine they would intend otherwise.
(2) where are you getting your numbers? I've added up the current conference winning percentages of all five of Clemson's ACC opponents thus far, and it doesn't come out to 37% -
NCSU is 1-3
Stan is 1-3
FSU is 1-5
Wake is 1-2
UVa is 2-2
The total is thus 6-15, which is .286. Miami's and SMU's I believe are off too. Miami's should be
4-7 for a .364 percentage, and SMU's 4-10 for a .286 percentage. I'm not saying I couldn't be wrong, but what am I missing?
(3)
Since we already know which teams Clem/SMU/Miami will play in their conference slate, there's no reason to only keep track of the teams they've already played, b/c we know that the winning percentage the teams they haven't yet played will eventually be tallied into the total come the end of the season anyway.
As such, if we keep track of the comparative winning percentage of ALL conf opponents on each teams schedule (even the teams they haven't yet played), then it currently looks like this:
Miami: 13-18 (.419)
Clemson: 12-18 (.400)
SMU: 11-19 (.367)
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: Wait a minute . . . aren't those numbers off ?
Oct 20, 2024, 4:58 PM
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(1) First of all, I have a question. Just to be clear, are we understanding the #5 tie breaker to refer only to the **conference** games of our conference opponents, rather than their overall winning percentages? I took it to mean conference games only, and while it does not say that, but I can't imagine they would intend otherwise.
(2) where are you getting your numbers? I've added up the current conference winning percentages of all five of Clemson's ACC opponents thus far, and it doesn't come out to 37% -
NCSU is 1-3
Stan is 1-3
FSU is 1-5
Wake is 1-2
UVa is 2-2
The total is thus 6-15, which is .286. Miami's and SMU's I believe are off too. Miami's should be
4-7 for a .364 percentage, and SMU's 4-10 for a .286 percentage. I'm not saying I couldn't be wrong, but what am I missing?
(3)
Since we already know which teams Clem/SMU/Miami will play in their conference slate, there's no reason to only keep track of the teams they've already played, b/c we know that the winning percentage the teams they haven't yet played will eventually be tallied into the total come the end of the season anyway.
As such, if we keep track of the comparative winning percentage of ALL conf opponents on each teams schedule (even the teams they haven't yet played), then it currently looks like this:
Miami: 13-18 (.419)
Clemson: 12-18 (.400)
SMU: 11-19 (.367)
1) Yes, only the conference opponents
2) I included the future opponents as well, but the way I am coming to the percentages does not take into account 0 wins properly if they did not play the same amount of games. I will correct that (thanks for audit). The findings (not percentages) are still correct for the whole season since they will have the same number of games played.
3) I think you are suggesting what I did in number 2, but I was thinking the way you originally did it made more sense.
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Re: Wait a minute . . . aren't those numbers off ?
Oct 20, 2024, 8:37 PM
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I think th way I did it in #3 makes better sense than the way I calculated it in #2. All I did in #2 was calc the current percentages of the ACC teams SMU/CU/Mia have played up to this point. Whereas in #3, I calculated the current winning % off all the ACC teams they have on their whole schedule. #3 takes more data into consideration, data that will end up counting in the final analysis even if CU/SMU/mia haven't yet played some of the teams that produced that data.
I still don't understand how you calculated it. Not sure what you meant about not taking zero wins into consideration properly if they didn't play the same number of games.
My thought was not so much to create a typical weighted "standings" like you'd see in baseball races (with half-game leads and such), but rather just creating a running tally of games that will occur, even if it's "uneven" now.
If only VT and Cal had gotten justice against Miami!
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Letterman [164]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Re: Wait a minute . . . aren't those numbers off ?
Oct 22, 2024, 4:23 PM
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I agree with your process so I tweaked my spreadsheet and it matches your numbers now:
Current Opponents Played Win% (your number 2):
Example - Clemson played 5 teams and this is they currently have 6 wins and 15 losses.
Wins Losses Win% Team
06 15 0.286 Clemson
04 07 0.364 Miami
04 10 0.286 SMU
Current Opponents Played/Will Play Win% (your number 3):
Example - Clemson played/will play 8 teams and they currently have 12 wins and 18 losses.
Wins Losses Win% Team
12 18 0.400 Clemson
13 18 0.419 Miami
11 19 0.367 SMU
Current Opponents Played/Will Play with Predictions Win% (your number 3 with future predictions):
Example - Clemson played/will play 8 teams and warrennolan.com has predicted those opponents will have 25 wins and 39 losses at the end of the season. Only exception is they predict Duke to beat SMU and I changed it to keep the what if there are 3 teams tied at the end of the season.
Wins Losses Win% Team
25 39 0.391 Clemson
29 35 0.453 Miami
24 40 0.375 SMU
The mistake I made was converting to percentages for each teams record then adding them up for the opponents percentage so both 0/4 and 0/5 both equaled 0% and when I added those up it lost the importance of the denominator. Order of operations mistake.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [98664]
TigerPulse: 100%
64
Posts: 97924
Joined: 2009
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What was it the old man said, "Figures don't lie but liars can figure?"
Oct 20, 2024, 3:58 PM
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Yeah, I think that's it.
If we beat either of those guys in the ACCCG their numbers and our number will both change. If they play each other we will be selected due to having only one loss and we have something the loser of a UM/SMU team doesn't have, a really early season win.
The POC plainly stated they seed the best teams at the time of their selection meeting. That would certainly put us ahead of the loser of the UM/SMU game.
The ACC has absolutely no influence over the POC's selections.
BTW: I'm the old man who said that.
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Paw Warrior [4751]
TigerPulse: 82%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 20, 2024, 7:06 PM
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If we do not get in the ACCCG, I don't think we make the CFP. That would be just enough of an excuse to leave us out.
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110%er [3927]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 20, 2024, 7:26 PM
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I am definitely not saying you’re wrong on #5 but I don’t read it as meaning only conference winning percentage.
“Combined win percentage of conference opponents”
It’s ambiguous perhaps but if they wanted it to be only conference winning percentage they should have written
“Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents”
Now also that #5 tie breaker only is used to find the first team that belong in the CG. Then it starts over and becomes a 2 way tie, which then it’s #4 which is the same as #5 in a 3 way tie.
Which means if both have their opponents with the same conference winning % it goes to SportsSource
I’m honestly not convinced it’s just conference winning percentage for number 5. Someone should email the ACC office and ask!
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Dynasty Maker [3265]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 20, 2024, 8:20 PM
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You could be right.. I was leaning towards interpreting it as their conference winning percentages, b/c no other games should matter for conference determinations - but strictly speaking, you're right - it doesn't explicitly say that.
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Rival Killer [2916]
TigerPulse: 72%
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If we win our remaining games,
Oct 22, 2024, 5:48 PM
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We are in the playoffs, even if we don't make the ACCCG.
I can live with that.
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Orange Blooded [2575]
TigerPulse: 90%
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Re: Win and we are in... Not so fast
Oct 22, 2024, 5:55 PM
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haven't you kept up with "thinning of the herd" articles in recent years. All three of these teams are not going to "win out". How about we worry about the next game right now - the Cards. And go from there.
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Gridiron Giant [16034]
TigerPulse: 100%
50
Posts: 17550
Joined: 1999
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People get too worries about things like this half way through the season.
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Oct 22, 2024, 7:53 PM
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If we finish the season by winning out, sure it will be a shame if we end up out of the ACC championship and no, that is t a good structure. But the more important thing is that we will have finished the season 11-1, with one loss to a Top 10 UGA on a neutral field. Well possibly be Top 5 and headed to the playoffs. I’m just not spending my energy worrying about that scenario possibly happening.
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National Champion [8064]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Agreed!
Oct 22, 2024, 8:14 PM
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11-1 and not in the playoffs would be a complete debacle.
11-1 and not in the ACCCG on a technicality; but still going to the playoffs - debacle still - but one I could live with.
1. I am okay with whoever wants to bookmark this: Syracuse will beat Miami in N.Y. to finish the regular season.
2. If the Tigers win out and only - Georgia beat us! The same Georgia who ( not on so called neutral field in GEORGIA) beat Texas and is likely to finish 1 or 2 - Plus - the CFBPC job is to get the best teams in the playoffs - no way a CFP appearance doesn't happen.
3. Us winning out means we would have to beat Pitt. Pitt will beat SMU. Although, all of that is really not worth the time at this point in time. Nothing we can do at this point but speculate. History isn't on the side of our would be competitors for the ACCCG though.
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Athletic Dir [1158]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: People get too worries about things like this half way through the season.
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Oct 22, 2024, 8:14 PM
[ in reply to People get too worries about things like this half way through the season. ] |
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Just win the game in front of you. If CU belongs in, by golly they’ll be in.Sit back and enjoy what the team puts on the field. Myself or anyone else on this great TNET group have any control over Clemsons football future. Enjoy the ride! Peace Out.
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