Re: Our so called success in the ACC the last two years.

Our so called success in the ACC the last two years.

2022-23: The combined conference W-L record of our ACC opponents last year was 180-214. If you take out 4 games from that schedule (Pitt, Duke, Miami, and UVA) it was a pathetic 122-192 (0.389), plus we only had to play a talented UNCheat just one time.

2023-24 The combined conference W-L record of our ACC opponents YTD is 107-97. Our remaining opponents currently sit at 38-48.

As you can see Brad's best team ever in 2022-23 feasted on a weak schedule and missed the tournament as a result.

Brad's next best team ever has played a tougher schedule and color me surprised we have fallen back to the middle of the pack.

Stop with the excuses and misleading people into thinking the program is on an upward trajectory. Brad is what his record says he is and next year without PJ and Girard we will start another tournament drought.

Brad NCAA tourney wins: 2
Brad NIT first round losses: 2

Re: Our so called success in the ACC the last two years.

Irish Wristwatch

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Feb 19, 2024, 5:09 PM

It is possible for an objectively better team have a worse conference record relative to a worse performing team. Statistically speaking, this team is suggested to be better than last year's team, particularly on the offensive side. According to the following model, here are both teams in terms of Offensive Performance Rating (OBPR), Defensive Performance Rating (DBPR), and Overall Performance Rating (BPR). The "B" refers to the model being in the Bayesian paradigm.

2023-24: 11.0 OBPR / 4.7 DBPR / 15.6 BPR
2022-23: 6.6 OBPR / 6.7 DBPR / 13.3 BPR

This year's team is much better offensively by a significant margin. Compared to all of his teams over the past 13 years (minus the 2010-11 team since the model doesn't go back that far), this is his best offensive team. However, the gains made offensively were lost on the defensive side. In fact, this year's team ranks as one of his worst teams defensively according to this model (11th of 13 teams). Overall though, this model suggests this year's team is his 2nd best performing team (2nd only to the 2017-18 team that went to the Sweet 16), whereas last year's team ranks as his 5th best overall team. Now, it should be noted that in the last month, this current team's defensive performance has improved significantly. Thus, hopefully it can continue to improve while maintaining the offensive performance to become his best overall team (according to this statistical model).

Note:
* OBPR (Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating) reflects a team’s expected offensive efficiency. This is interpreted as the points per 100 possessions better than average expected when playing against an average D1 team. A higher rating is better.

* DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating) reflects a team’s expected defensive efficiency. This is interpreted as the defensive points per 100 possessions better (lower) than average when playing against an average D1 team. A higher rating is better.

* BPR (Bayesian Performance Rating) reflects the sum of a team’s OBPR and DBPR. This rating is the ultimate measure of a team’s expected overall strength. This is interpreted as the number of points the team is expected to outscore an average D1 team by in an 100 possession game. A higher rating is better.

Source: https://evanmiya.com/?team_ratings

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Our so called success in the ACC the last two years.