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Replies: 9
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Editor [∞]
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CBS Bracketology update for Clemson
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Mar 11, 2024, 12:59 PM
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Clemson is a 6-seed in CBS Sports' latest NCAA Tournament projections, facing Drake in a Pittsburgh pod with 3-seed Creighton and 14-seed Morehead State as well. The other ACC reps are UNC (2), Duke (3) and Virginia (10). Pitt is listed as one of the first teams out.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Clemson NCAA Tournament resume
Record: 21-10
Road/neutral record: 9-6
Strength of schedule: 13
Record vs. NET Quadrant 1: 5-5 (Wins: 80-76 at No. 7 UNC; 85-77 at No. 8 Alabama; 85-68 versus No. 23 Boise State at home; 74-66 versus No. 40 TCU at neutral site; 79-70 at No. 44 Pitt)
Quadrant 3/4 losses: 2 (78-77 to No. 80 NC State at home; 93-90 to No. 122 GT at home)
Result-based metric average: 22.5
Predictive metric average rank: 23.5
NET ranking: 26
Non-conference record: 10-1
(Metrics per WarrenNolan.com)
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CU Medallion [64600]
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I'm still pi$$ed-off about the home losses to NC State and GT...
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Mar 11, 2024, 1:03 PM
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Just two of the games Clemson DEFINITELY should have won.
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Orange Blooded [4433]
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Re: I'm still pi$$ed-off about the home losses to NC State and GT...
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Mar 11, 2024, 1:57 PM
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Yep, and look at those 6 bottom teams playing in the first round of the ACC tourney. We lost to 4 of them. Ugh.
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CU Medallion [64600]
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Welcome to Brownell ball!***
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Mar 11, 2024, 2:03 PM
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CU Guru [1280]
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Legend [16930]
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Re: CBS Bracketology update for Clemson
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Mar 11, 2024, 1:19 PM
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There's only a 4% difference in the 5 through 7 seeds being upset in the first round. Which pretty much means the NCAA is terrible at seeding the 12 teams and their 12 counterparts. There are large variances between 2, 3, 4, and 5 getting upset. And a big drop between 7 and 8 (8 is actual beaten by 9 slightly more than they win). But 5, 6, and 7 win 61-64% of the time.
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All-In [32682]
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Per the usual with Brownlee, if we are a 5, 6 or 7 - we will get the percentage
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Mar 11, 2024, 1:52 PM
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back closer to 50/50.
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CU Medallion [65675]
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Brandon, what effect do you think our performance in the ACC Tourney will have
Mar 11, 2024, 1:24 PM
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on this? I say, one win, maintain a 6, two wins, maybe back to a 5. One and done, drop to a 7. It's a good thing we had all those good OOC wins early in the season, because we have certainly thrown a shoe coming down the stretch.
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Legend [16930]
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Re: Brandon, what effect do you think our performance in the ACC Tourney will have
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Mar 11, 2024, 1:36 PM
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I posted the stats above - the absolute odds are about the same whether we're 5, 6, or 7. It's virtually guaranteed we're one of these. If they drop us to a 7 seed but put us in a regional closer to home could be advantageous. We have average 62% chance of winning in those three slots. Then adjust that for the fact that we're 199th in the country as a favorite this season.
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Editor [∞]
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Re: Brandon, what effect do you think our performance in the ACC Tourney will have
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Mar 11, 2024, 1:48 PM
[ in reply to Brandon, what effect do you think our performance in the ACC Tourney will have ] |
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It's been a few weeks, but the NCAA committee had Clemson on the fringe of a 4-seed with a 17-7 (7-6 ACC) mark in mid-February. It seems like they like Clemson's strength of schedule and other metrics, although the Tigers are 4-3 since then and no NET Q1 wins added to the resume. As it stands currently, there won't be an opportunity at another Q1 until potentially Duke awaits in the semis (Virginia is No. 51; neutral site threshold for Q1 is Top 50).
My guess is a run to the semis could secure a 5-seed, depending on the other results in college basketball.
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