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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Charting our Win % since 2011
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:21 AM
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Freshman [-74]
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Yeah, one of 3 programs in 150 years with 12 seasons of 10 wins or more.
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:22 AM
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You poor baby.
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Clemson Sports Icon [55031]
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Ignore that downward crash there at the end.
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:25 AM
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October of 1929 you'd probably say “yeah well we did have it all!”
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: Ignore that downward crash there at the end.
Oct 31, 2023, 1:30 PM
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Oh you mean the single data point that is a clear outlier?
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: Ignore that downward crash there at the end.
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Oct 31, 2023, 3:14 PM
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There’s more than one data point since 2018 and none of them increase year over year
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: It was awesome. You're right.
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Oct 31, 2023, 1:45 PM
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Tell me you don’t know what “trend” means without telling me.
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Ring of Honor [22682]
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Almost a line with zero slope linearly but best fit wise it's ....
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Oct 31, 2023, 3:21 PM
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clearly a quadratic equation with a negative leading coefficient, not good.
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: Almost a line with zero slope linearly but best fit wise it's ....
Oct 31, 2023, 5:40 PM
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Take it up with Microsoft and the Excel team.
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Ring of Honor [22682]
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haha...I am just saying that it models a quadratic function, not a linear one.
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Nov 1, 2023, 9:04 AM
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So a linear model is not a good representation. Whatever your point was with that graph, it's not correct.
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National Champion [7118]
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Re: haha...I am just saying that it models a quadratic function, not a linear one.
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Nov 1, 2023, 9:06 AM
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there's always a way to use statistics to tell the story you want to tell
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Ring of Honor [22682]
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But this isn't statistics. It's modeling with functions.
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Nov 1, 2023, 9:43 AM
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Two entirely different things.
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National Champion [7118]
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Re: But this isn't statistics. It's modeling with functions.
Nov 1, 2023, 11:18 AM
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linear and non-linear regression was taught in my graduate level statistics class at Clemson
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Ring of Honor [22682]
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Re: But this isn't statistics. It's modeling with functions.
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Nov 1, 2023, 3:26 PM
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Quadratic functions are specific mathematical models used to describe curvilinear relationships, often forming U-shaped or inverted U-shaped curves, while statistics is a broader field focused on collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data, encompassing various techniques and models, including both linear and nonlinear relationships between variables. Depending on the context and data, one may choose to use quadratic functions or statistical methods to model and analyze relationships.
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National Champion [7118]
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Ring of Honor [22682]
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Re: But this isn't statistics. It's modeling with functions.
Nov 1, 2023, 7:23 PM
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Modeling with Quadratic Functions:
Quadratic functions are mathematical functions represented by equations like f(x) = ax^2 + bx + c, where "a," "b," and "c" are constants.
When you model with quadratic functions, you are explicitly choosing to represent a relationship between variables using a quadratic equation. This approach is deterministic and prescriptive; you decide to use a quadratic form based on your understanding of the underlying process or theory.
Quadratic functions are versatile and can be used in various applications, including physics, engineering, economics, and more, to describe phenomena with a parabolic shape.
Quadratic Regression:
Quadratic regression is a statistical technique used to find the best-fitting quadratic equation for a given set of data points. It falls under the broader category of nonlinear regression.
In quadratic regression, the goal is to identify the quadratic equation that best describes the relationship between the dependent and independent variables within your dataset. Unlike modeling with quadratic functions, quadratic regression doesn't start with a predetermined quadratic form; instead, it uses statistical methods to determine the best-fitting quadratic equation based on the data.
Quadratic regression is particularly useful when you have data that suggests a quadratic relationship but want to objectively determine the coefficients (a, b, c) that provide the best fit to the data points.
Modeling with quadratic functions involves explicitly choosing a quadratic equation to represent a relationship, often based on theoretical or domain knowledge. In contrast, quadratic regression is a statistical technique that determines the best-fitting quadratic equation for a set of data points, allowing you to objectively capture the underlying relationship in the data. Quadratic regression is a valuable tool when you want to uncover the quadratic pattern in your data without preconceived notions about the functional form.
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Varsity [102]
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: My goodness. I think you may have
Nov 2, 2023, 12:17 AM
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He replied a full day later basically arguing that the “trend line” literally baked into the software doesn’t meet his definition of a trend line. It’s not worth further debate. I gave my source. The data is apparent. He could easily model whatever way he wants but he didn’t. Because, if you start in 2009 and in 2023 it isn’t the massive downward slope that he and the OP wish it would be. What posted is the exact win percentage by year with the Excel generated “trend line” superimposed. I didn’t draw it. I didn't manipulate it. It is precisely what it is.
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Freshman [-74]
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Its an accurate trend line for the tenure of Swinney.
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Nov 1, 2023, 9:27 AM
[ in reply to Almost a line with zero slope linearly but best fit wise it's .... ] |
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The team has finished 14th and 15th, at 0.500 right now, and Dabo is still the 2nd winningest coach behind Nick Saban - during his tenure, since 2011, and in the CFP era.
A couple no-playoff seasons don’t change the man’s overall trend. I mean heck, if the OP wants to manipulate trends, then why not just plot since 2016 or something? At least have the wherewithal to manipulate the stats to full effect.
We OBVIOUSLY haven’t been where we were. We had two seasons of the DJU era, and a handcuffed QB situation. And now we have a QB who is tasked with about 50% of the offense and still can’t process it consistently. There are literally open guys on nearly every passing play, and Cade just isn’t seeing his options. Then of course he’s still making “freshman” mistakes, along with him and RBs putting the ball on the ground. That’s the story of the season.
But, these are legitimate issues which have kept us from being in the playoffs. Not that Dabo is slipping in his coaching practices.
And no, we haven’t lost a single game ever because we don’t have a bunch of magic portal guys or smaller NILs. Unless you’re talking about sitting a starter for a new QB, then the last 2.7 seasons have gone as they did for OBVIOUS reasons - none of which have anything to do with a portal or NIL.
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All-In [10143]
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Re: It was awesome. You're right.
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Nov 1, 2023, 10:31 AM
[ in reply to Re: It was awesome. You're right. ] |
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If this graph represented your bank account you would be white faced and worried.
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Top TigerNet [29452]
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Re: It was awesome. You're right.
Nov 1, 2023, 7:26 PM
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Have you looked at your retirement accounts lately? That’s probably not too far off for the same time frame.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Yep
Nov 1, 2023, 7:43 PM
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#downwardtrend
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [100960]
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What? We've never won 120% of our games?
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:23 AM
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OMGoodness, FIRE DABO NOW!
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Exaggeration of the point does not make it any less reality.***
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:28 AM
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Clemson Sports Icon [55031]
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Deflecting because they know youre right.
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:31 AM
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Clemson football 📉
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: Deflecting because they know youre right.
Oct 31, 2023, 1:48 PM
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Even funnier because he deliberately left 2009 and 2010 off the list to exaggerate his point.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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I left it off because we're discussing the period since the 10 win streak
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Oct 31, 2023, 2:54 PM
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Putting 2008 and 2009 on there doesn't change anything.
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: I left it off because we're discussing the period since the 10 win streak
Oct 31, 2023, 3:03 PM
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I wouldn’t put 2008 on because he was an interim coach. You’re deliberately misrepresenting the data. He has been full time coach since 2009. The trend of his tenure does not say what you want it to. Him discussing the 10 season win streak and its significant does not somehow negate what it took to accomplish that. But it doesn’t tell the story you WANT to tell.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: I left it off because we're discussing the period since the 10 win streak
Oct 31, 2023, 3:16 PM
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I’m not manipulating anything. You can go back as many years as you want, and the last five years will still be a downward trend.
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: I left it off because we're discussing the period since the 10 win streak
Oct 31, 2023, 5:42 PM
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Except that the trend line doesn’t? Isn’t that weird. I didn’t just draw it on there. I plugged the data on excel and had it plot the trend line. So, as I told PCB, take it up with Microsoft and the Excel team. I’m sure you think you know better.
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Rival Killer [2620]
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Re: I left it off because we're discussing the period since the 10 win streak
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Nov 1, 2023, 9:11 AM
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Plot the trend line (a REAL one) yourself and you will see you are wrong.
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Freshman [-74]
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Clemson Sports Icon [55031]
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The 56-7 massacre counted as more than 1 win
Oct 31, 2023, 11:30 AM
[ in reply to What? We've never won 120% of our games? ] |
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and should be reflected accordingly on the chart
Along with 31-0, 44-16, and others.
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Clemson Sports Icon [55031]
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To quote allorange247365,
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:23 AM
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“Get off the bandwagon and find something that suits your immature life.”
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Freshman [-74]
TigerPulse: 66%
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True. Why choose to be a miserable in life?
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:25 AM
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Find something else. No big deal.
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Clemson Sports Icon [55031]
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Im not miserable. My life is great. Thanks for asking!
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:26 AM
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Clemson football is entertainment. I’m providing commentary on the continued downward trajectory.
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Freshman [-74]
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You sure do b!tch a lot about your entertainment.
Oct 31, 2023, 11:35 PM
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That goes against the definition of entertainment.
How much money do you donate to the program? Just wondering.
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Paw Master [16128]
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I didn't realize you could win 120% of your games or that this season is over...***
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:27 AM
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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I'll update it as the season progresses.....***
Oct 31, 2023, 11:41 AM
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Oct 31, 2023, 11:44 AM
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You do realize that at some point in time, it's inevitable that there eill be a downward trend. It gas happened to literally every program in college football.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Sure but it didn't have to happen now and shouldn't have
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:58 AM
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Completely unavoidable. The downward trend is not from natural uncontrollable factors.
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Sure but it didn't have to happen now and shouldn't have
Oct 31, 2023, 1:26 PM
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It kinda is. I've mentioned several times we have lost several recruiting advantages that we had in the past. Plus, we have Kirby Smart and Mack Brown coaching in our two neighboring states, which eats into our recruiting.
Bottom line, using the transfer portal and firing the staff aren't the guaranteed fixes that you think they are. There are just as many "portal" teams that aren’t having success as the ones that are. You still have to recruit players, even the ones you get from the portal. You don't just get to choose them like you are ordering from a menu.
There are some good players coming in from the recruiting class next year, and hopefully that will address some of the problems we have, particularly at receiver.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: Sure but it didn't have to happen now and shouldn't have
Oct 31, 2023, 3:17 PM
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Yet recruiting has not been an issue, so I’m not sure why you keep bringing it up.
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Sure but it didn't have to happen now and shouldn't have
Nov 1, 2023, 9:15 AM
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Yes, recruiting has been an issue. We simply do not have the talent at wide receiver that we used to have.
That is a significant issue for us, because receivers have basically been the lifeblood of our program. In the two national championship games against Alabama, we failed to rush for 100 yards either time. We simply would not have won those games without elite receivers.
Well, now we don't have elite receivers, and you see the result.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: Sure but it didn't have to happen now and shouldn't have
Nov 1, 2023, 12:47 PM
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"Yes, recruiting has been an issue. We simply do not have the talent at wide receiver that we used to have."
Our WRs have been top recruits at the position. That's not a recruiting problem. That's an evaluation/Development problem.
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Offensive Star [306]
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Oct 31, 2023, 11:45 AM
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2011 sure is an interesting year to start the chart. What happened before then?
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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The chart is in response to the "we had 12 10 win seasons in a row"
Oct 31, 2023, 11:58 AM
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which began in 2011.
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National Champion [7970]
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Greatness level is very hard to achieve
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Oct 31, 2023, 11:53 AM
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it is even harder to maintain that level.
See: history
Very few teams had the run of our Clemson Tigers, however to your point this has trended downward for several years now.
What comes next is vital to either staying mediocre or climbing back up that ladder.
I do not see Coach Dabo as the staying mediocre type! His angst recently with callers/analyst shows his level of care. Yes he should understand criticism is part of his position and he should not even listen to all the talk but after such success he needs to find that humility again. Stay calm and let this flow right over you, no need to lend credence to all the chatter.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Agreed.
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Oct 31, 2023, 1:08 PM
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The question is, is he willing to adapt to those things in the modern game that have resulted in this trend. Last season I wasn't sure if he was willing to fire a "Clemson Man". He did. Now we've got to see if he's willing to fire one (or more) of his former players. And if he's willing to recruit the portal to fix the depth and competition issues on this roster.
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Agreed.
Oct 31, 2023, 1:29 PM
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Before we fire one of those former players, we need to determine if said former player is actually the problem.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Agree
Oct 31, 2023, 3:19 PM
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But in my opinion, Grisham and Austin, and hall are clearly problems.
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 9:17 AM
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And we need to know if that is fact, rather than opinion.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 9:25 AM
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We’re in the 4th year or the Grisham experiment and WR has gotten worse. Not sure what other facts there can be.
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 9:42 AM
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The problem is lack of physical talent at the receiver position is the problem. What needs to be determined is if recruits aren't coming here because of Grisham, or if it's because of another reason.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 12:51 PM
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EJ Williams 4*
Ajou Ajou 4*
Beaux Collins 4*
Troy Stellato 4*
Decari Collins 4*
Will Taylor 3*
Antonio Williams 4*
Adam Randall 4*
Cole Turner 3*
Ronan Hanafin 4*
Olsen Patt-Henry 4*
Noble Johnson 3*
Misun Kelley 3*
Tyler Brown 3*
What on earth are you talking about when you say "recruits aren't coming here"?
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 1:43 PM
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The ones with elite talent, at the receiver position. I mean ELITE. Just because you are a 4* doesn't mean you are elite.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 1:53 PM
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Elite would normally mean 5* WR. Of which we’ve had 2 total ever. Sammy and Cain
Nuk, Williams, Ross, Higgins, Renfrow, Rodgers, McLeod, Scott were all 4 star or less
We’ve been recruiting 4* left and right still.
Again evaluation and development.
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: Agree
Nov 1, 2023, 2:16 PM
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No, elite means ability. You are too much of a stats guy.
Mike Williams is an elite receiver. That's why he's in the NFL. But he's not elite because of development. He is elite because of his size and vertical ability. You can't develop those things. You either have them or you don't.
Evaluation isn't the problem. These current receivers are simply the best we could get at the time.
Again, you can't just throw a list of recruiting rankings at me. You have to evaluate the physical skills of each player. We simply don't have receivers who are fast enough to stretch the defense, or receivers wirh the vertical ability to win jump balls. That's the problem.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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If you're saying we've missed on the 4* guys
Nov 1, 2023, 2:17 PM
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then obviously that's evaluation and development!!
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CU Guru [1521]
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Re: If you're saying we've missed on the 4* guys
Nov 1, 2023, 3:04 PM
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No, we didn't miss. We just couldn't get anybody better and had to settle for these guys.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
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What do you mean we settled for 4* guys?
Nov 1, 2023, 4:13 PM
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You're not making any sense.
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: Greatness level is very hard to achieve
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Oct 31, 2023, 1:46 PM
[ in reply to Greatness level is very hard to achieve ] |
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Except that, as measure over his tenure, he hasn’t. Unless of course you hate math or cherry pick your data.
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Paw Master [17553]
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
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Oct 31, 2023, 1:45 PM
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Okay boss.
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Top TigerNet [30264]
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Oct 31, 2023, 3:04 PM
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Don’t we have 4 or 5 more games to play in 2023? Seems that last data point is inconclusive as of today. Since it’s missing about 33% of the 2023 results.
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Scout Team [89]
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Oct 31, 2023, 3:08 PM
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What was different in 2022… that allowed us to start going up again? Why don’t we just keep doing whatever that was? Oh yeah, I forgot we fired him.
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Varsity [102]
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Chart Dabo's salary over the same time period, please. Then overlay.
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Oct 31, 2023, 3:10 PM
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Then post.
Thank you.
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Paw Warrior [4611]
TigerPulse: 100%
37
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Oct 31, 2023, 3:14 PM
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Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. ~Mark Twain
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Freshman [-74]
TigerPulse: 66%
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Why only 2011?
Nov 1, 2023, 9:16 AM
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Your “trend” is distorted data.
Dabo Sweeney is the 2nd winningest head coach since 2011 and during his tenure, in spite of “only” finishing 14th and 15th the last two seasons. Who knows where we finish this year, but we’ll go as our development QB goes. That and until we stop giving points away with turnovers.
With a mature QB and less catastrophic turnovers, we would be undefeated. I’m sure some will want to argue that, but that’s the bottom line of where we are right now.
Can the OL do better? Much better? Yes, they need to. But the most critical issues on the team are a QB who isn’t ready for the full offensive package and catastrophic turnovers being the bulk of point differentials.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
TigerPulse: 86%
53
Posts: 18674
Joined: 2007
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I created this in response to someone responding to the downward trend
Nov 1, 2023, 12:52 PM
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with "12 10 win seasons in a row". That began in 2011.
It doesn't matter how far back you start the spray chart, the tail end remains the same.
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Hall of Famer [8831]
TigerPulse: 100%
43
Posts: 11722
Joined: 2011
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Nov 1, 2023, 1:48 PM
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Why list 1.200 ? It's impossible to win more than 100% of our games.
But maybe this demonstrates unrealistic expectations of some fans.
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Ring of Honor [22318]
TigerPulse: 86%
53
Posts: 18674
Joined: 2007
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It's just what the graph did. The line doesn't change however
Nov 2, 2023, 2:00 PM
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Still a tail end slope regardless...
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All-In [10658]
TigerPulse: 100%
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thisisfine.jpg***
1
Nov 1, 2023, 3:23 PM
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Varsity [111]
TigerPulse: 42%
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Got to stick with the plan***
Nov 1, 2023, 7:44 PM
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Starter [290]
TigerPulse: 94%
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can you plot how many
Nov 1, 2023, 8:04 PM
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plays each season we were away from an undefeated record?
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Orange Blooded [2203]
TigerPulse: 81%
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Re: Charting our Win % since 2011
Nov 2, 2023, 2:38 PM
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Final AP or Coaches poll would be a more accurate indicator
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Replies: 74
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