|
Replies: 17
| visibility 1360
|
Top TigerNet [32049]
TigerPulse: 100%
55
Posts: 10259
Joined: 2003
|
For all you gamblers, a question.
3
Oct 26, 2025, 4:19 PM
|
|
I don't bet. I don't even like playing golf where the losers buys everybody a coke. So, I clearly don't understand how Vegas sets point spreads. I only understand they are a lot better at it than I would be.
Here is my question.
FSU opened as an 8.5 favorite over Wake. I'm bumfuzzled. I figured Wake would open as about a 4.5 point foavorite.
Can anybody educate me and give me a logical reason for the point spread?
|
|
|
|
 |
Orange Elite [5593]
TigerPulse: 100%
38
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
5
5
Oct 26, 2025, 4:21 PM
|
|
As soon as you can help us figure out how we opened as 4.5 points over Duke.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Top TigerNet [32049]
TigerPulse: 100%
55
Posts: 10259
Joined: 2003
|
That is strange, but not nearly as strange as the FSU line.*
2
Oct 26, 2025, 4:22 PM
|
|
aaaaaaaa
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1549]
TigerPulse: 87%
30
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
5
5
Oct 26, 2025, 4:23 PM
|
|
Vegas runs simulations and then sets a spread they think will draw even money on both sides.
Vegas literally doesn’t care who wins until we get to like playoff games/titles games/Super Bowls and things like that and then they have a preference bc one side is usually heavier than the other.
Vegas only cares about the “big” or “juice”. The money it takes to actually make a bet.
FSU opening at -8.5 means they think FSU -8.5 will draw as close to even money on both sides as possible. If heavy bets start coming in on WF… they’ll slide it to 8 and if it continues coming in on WF they’ll slide it to 7.5 and just keep going down until the beta get as close to even on each side as possible.
Conversely… if heavy bets or money start coming in on FSU -8.5… they’ll slide it to 9… and then 9.5 until again… they get as close to even on both sides as possible.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1549]
TigerPulse: 87%
30
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
Oct 26, 2025, 4:24 PM
|
|
“Vig” not big
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clemson Icon [25975]
TigerPulse: 100%
54
Posts: 16611
Joined: 1995
|
Bookie makes money on the commission, not the betting (well if done right)
1
Oct 26, 2025, 4:26 PM
[ in reply to Re: For all you gamblers, a question. ] |
|
We had a bookie in my fraternity that got into some pretty hot water not doing it the right way.
He was bailed out by a rich brother, but things would have gone badly for him had he not been.
I imagine there are a poster or two here that know who I am talking about LOL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2147]
TigerPulse: 89%
32
|
Small books have to have a 'layoff man' readily available ****
2
Oct 26, 2025, 5:07 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Elite [5490]
TigerPulse: 93%
38
|
|
|
|
|
|
Top TigerNet [32049]
TigerPulse: 100%
55
Posts: 10259
Joined: 2003
|
Yep. I understand that.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 7:02 PM
[ in reply to Re: For all you gamblers, a question. ] |
|
What I don't understand is why the initial spread is FSU -8.5.
That appears to be begging people to bet on Wake.
I've heard that occassionally Vegas has games that they set up, based on information most of the genderal public doesn't know, called sucker bets. It's games where they don't want the money 50/50, but they want it heavy on one side know the probability is the team with the heavy bets will lose.
I also understand that "FSU" is still a "brand name" so the casual fan is more likely to bet on FSU than Wake, so even if the line is Wake +8.5 some fans will just bet on the "brand."
With all that said, I know Vegas knows a lot more than me - they don't build those big buildings by losing money - it just seems weird to me that 8.5 is a rational thread.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1549]
TigerPulse: 87%
30
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 4:24 PM
|
|
Vegas runs simulations and then sets a spread they think will draw even money on both sides.
Vegas literally doesn’t care who wins until we get to like playoff games/titles games/Super Bowls and things like that and then they have a preference bc one side is usually heavier than the other.
Vegas only cares about the “big” or “juice”. The money it takes to actually make a bet.
FSU opening at -8.5 means they think FSU -8.5 will draw as close to even money on both sides as possible. If heavy bets start coming in on WF… they’ll slide it to 8 and if it continues coming in on WF they’ll slide it to 7.5 and just keep going down until the beta get as close to even on each side as possible.
Conversely… if heavy bets or money start coming in on FSU -8.5… they’ll slide it to 9… and then 9.5 until again… they get as close to even on both sides as possible.
|
|
|
|
|
|
MVP [505]
TigerPulse: 82%
19
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 4:24 PM
|
|
Remember college is different than professional so it's more about the history of a program. No matter how good Indiana is, even if Ohio State has a lost and Indiana is undefeated playing at home they won't be favored over Ohio State. The saying " they aren't used to winning" is very relevant in college sports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Game Changer [1833]
TigerPulse: 100%
31
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 4:29 PM
|
|
If you were a gambler, it means you would bet the farm on Wake (since you thought they were stronger anyway), then sit back and watch Vegas be right all along!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Top TigerNet [32049]
TigerPulse: 100%
55
Posts: 10259
Joined: 2003
|
As a Nole fan, I hope you are right.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 7:06 PM
|
|
I hope Vegas is using this as a sucker bet game. For some reason they are very certain FSU wins by double digits. So, they set the line where 70% of the bets go to Wake.
I hope they are right, but I sure don't see it based on anything on the field.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Head Coach [951]
TigerPulse: 99%
24
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 4:26 PM
|
|
Mostly has to do with where they think the money will be going. i.e. more people will probably bet on Clemson than Duke, FSU than Wake. It means a teams reputation counts a lot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tiger Titan [48450]
TigerPulse: 100%
58
Posts: 12192
Joined: 2015
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 5:14 PM
|
|
It moves depending on which way the funds swing. A lot of folks starts putting money on Wake that spread will decrease.
I gamble a little to make it interesting nothing big. Have learned Vegas wins most of the time.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [8864]
TigerPulse: 100%
43
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
1
Oct 26, 2025, 7:05 PM
|
|
Bret, ya probably need to ask GROK on this one. I don't think there is a human this side of Vegas which knows the answer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clemson Conqueror [11604]
TigerPulse: 100%
46
|
|
|
|
|
|
Game Day Hero [4552]
TigerPulse: 100%
36
|
Re: For all you gamblers, a question.
Oct 26, 2025, 9:33 PM
|
|
There's not a simple answer
There are mitigating factors that vary from game to game.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 17
| visibility 1360
|
|
|
50
