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Paw Master [17238]
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The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:35 AM
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The last several days I've seen posts that go something like this:
"Team X beat Team Y tonight. It's just college basketball. You obviously don't watch much."
There are roughly 6000 basketball games played in a NCAA Division 1 season. It is not statistically significant to point to any one game on any one day. What is significant is how teams, players, and coaches perform over time.
Since 2010, Clemson ranks the following:
As a favorite - 12th ACC / 166th Nationally
As a home favorite - 11th ACC / 158th Nationally
As an away favorite - 12th ACC / 283rd Nationally
This season:
As a favorite - 11th ACC / 205th Nationally
As a home favorite - 11th ACC / 230 Nationally
An an away favorite - 9th (of 12, three teams haven't been a favorite) ACC / 182nd Nationally
Just in case you think that since 2010 is unfair because it took time for Brownell to get established and one season isn't enough data to work with, here's since 2017 (Sweet 16 season):
As a favorite - 10th ACC / 118th Nationally
As a home favorite - 7th ACC / 95th Nationally
As an away favorite - 12th ACC / 262nd Nationally
This is the golden age of Brad Brownell basketball.
Make of it what you will, but anyone who insists our losing games to teams we should beat is "just basketball" are incorrect.
These are ranked by win percentage and all information is taken from teamrankings.com's team trends.
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TigerNet HOFer [126098]
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So, we should dump basketball?
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:39 AM
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In favor of field hockey and corn hole?
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: So, we should dump basketball?
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:41 AM
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If this is all we aspire to?
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Top TigerNet [31101]
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No but no other coach has been retained like BB
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Feb 22, 2024, 1:41 PM
[ in reply to So, we should dump basketball? ] |
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With so little success on their resume.
At least not that I can think of.
Message was edited by: STERLING®
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1st Rounder [613]
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Re: So, we should dump basketball?
Feb 23, 2024, 2:06 PM
[ in reply to So, we should dump basketball? ] |
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In favor of field hockey and corn hole?
How about we just dump Brownell instead?
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Orange Immortal [67328]
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The CBB apologists won't like this.***
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:44 AM
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Heisman Winner [78278]
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Did you see the ending to the LSU/KY game last night?
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:45 AM
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That was nuts.
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TigerNet Icon [153878]
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no sir. What happened?***
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:47 AM
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Heisman Winner [78278]
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Picture the FSU game we met.
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:51 AM
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KY made an absolute NBA shot to go up one with 9 seconds left. LSU drove, no TO, got blocked at the rim though the shooter somehow managed to corral the ball and tip to a teammate who lobbed it in as time expired. It was wild.
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All-In [11058]
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Heisman Winner [78278]
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Agree!!***
Feb 23, 2024, 1:03 AM
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Heisman Winner [78291]
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National Champion [7736]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:51 AM
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Proves what all of us on the “lunatic fringe” say, Brad Brownell is nothing more than a mediocre basketball coach, and nothing will ever change. There’s enough data to prove this. One exceptional season is a deviation from the mean, and the team performance will return to the mean.
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:57 AM
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There is another interesting stat hiding on that site. I didn't make time to map it out like this but since 2017 Brad performs worse (8th in the ACC) with rest advantage than with a rest disadvantage (5th ACC) or equal rest (4th ACC). Says a lot about what he is really bringing to the table as a coach. Not surprisingly, Virginia is 1st over that period with a rest advantage. Perhaps because Bennett is a really good coach.
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Top TigerNet [29028]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 12:18 PM
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Thank you for doing the research on that.
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Orange Immortal [63514]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 22, 2024, 2:43 PM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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One exceptional season is a deviation from the mean.
What is of the most absolute importance is that this one season deviation (assuming he doesn't absolutely tank like last year), MUST be used to justify retaining, extending, and further enriching said mediocre coach for years to come. You must ignore the other 13 years. Only this year matters (again assuming it doesn't go south in the remaining games).
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Rival Killer [2780]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:52 AM
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The last time Clemson had one of the ACC's top scorers (Marquise Reed #3) we made the Sweet 16.
This year PJ Hall is 2nd in the league in scoring.
We are a lock for the tournament and have the team to make a deep run once again.
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Orange Immortal [67328]
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Clemson would be a lock if the tournament started today...
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:57 AM
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but with five games still to be played, the outcome of those games will determine if Clemson remains a lock. That's just reality.
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:58 AM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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Can you explain how that relates to or contradicts my post?
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Rival Killer [2780]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 22, 2024, 12:15 PM
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It shows that when he has good players he gets results.
Now you can argue it’s his fault that he doesn’t have the players but recruiting at clemson in basketball is like recruiting at Duke in football.
Surely you can give the man a break there?
We seem to be trending in the right direction with talent also.
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 12:28 PM
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My post is about perception/reality of Brownell's inconsistency when it comes to winning when he should (i.e. as the favorite). From 2010, from 2017, and this season he trails the ACC and ranks poor nationally in this regard. Even when he has good players he is not optimizing the results.
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Orange Immortal [67328]
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Uhh...NO...it's not!
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Feb 22, 2024, 12:44 PM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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You find a quality coach these kids want to play for and watch what happens.
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Orange Beast [6240]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 12:58 PM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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It shows that when he has good players he gets results.
So we've only had 1 good player in his tenure?
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110%er [5684]
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KJ McDaniels and Jaron Blossongame were both NBA draft picks
Feb 22, 2024, 1:18 PM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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We only made it to the tourney once during their tenures here.
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Paw Warrior [4872]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 2:05 PM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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"We seem to be trending in the right direction with talent also."
Are we though, really?
CBB has recruited 7 4* players in his 14 years that ever played a game. Only 4 stayed with the program. Two are on the current team.
2020 P.J. Hall 4-star, no. 62 overall
2014 Donte Grantham 4-star, no. 75 overall
2011 Bernard Sullivan 4-star, no. 83 overall (transferred to Charlotte after 1 year)
2017 Amir Simms 4-star, no. 93 overall
2019 Chase Hunter 4-star, no. 105 overall
2016 A.J Oliver 4-star not ranked (transferred to Old Dominion after redshirt sophomore year)
2020 O.M Prosper 4-star, not ranked (transferred to Marquette after freshman year)
This year and next year's classes do have two young men who were 4* prospects somewhere, but in 247sports.com composite none are:
2023 Asa Thomas 3* No. 240
2024 Dallas Thomas 3* No. 132
2024 Ace Buckner 3* No. 134
2024 Del Jones 3* No, 153
So next year's team will have no consensus 4* players (unless C Hunter uses his COVID year to play for Clemson one more time). Hall gone, C Hunter gone, JGIII gone, Clark gone.
Will next year's starting 5 be?
D Hunter
Beadle
Scheifflin
Godfrey
Wiggins
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TigerNet Legend [145135]
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Rival Killer [2780]
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Re: Duke football has a division title in football
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Feb 22, 2024, 9:12 PM
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So in other words it's actually easier to recruit at Duke in football than it is at Clemson in basketball.
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TigerNet Legend [145135]
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Do you think thats true?***
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Feb 22, 2024, 9:15 PM
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Heisman Winner [78278]
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You're assuming it thinks.***
Feb 23, 2024, 1:04 AM
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Orange Immortal [61303]
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You are spot on.
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Feb 22, 2024, 1:33 PM
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This really is the best team Brownell has had; we may even win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.
Outside of the Sweet 16 run, this is really the pinnacle, and it took 14 yeas and we are still tied for 5th in our conference and UNRANKED. This is it, baby. This IS Brad Brownell basketball. There is no way to separate him from this long record of mediocrity and failure. It may not be entirely his fault, and it may be that no other coach on earth could have done better, but this is HIS BABY.
This has nothing to do with how good of a guy coach Brownell is (I think he's a great guy and I wish he'd built a dynasty at Clemson). This has nothing to do with our loss the other night against NCST. In fact, I defended Brownell against all of the idiots who blamed that loss on him, or who bellow and cry and beotch about Brownell every time we miss a shot or turn the ball over. Of course, if we make the tournament, and especially if we win a tournament game, like it or not, Brownell will not be fired.
To think that this consistent, long term mediocrity is the best we can do is not only false, it is a defeatist statement if we accept it. Clemson fans deserve better, and a coaching change is long overdue. If we are truly on the cusp of greatness, and making the NCAA tournament with regularity, and seriously challenging for the ACC Championship, then I will be thrilled. That should be our goal and our expectation, and it shouldn't take 14 years to do it.
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Orange Immortal [63514]
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Re: You are spot on.
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Feb 22, 2024, 2:48 PM
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your post is spot on.
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Heisman Winner [78291]
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There is a spot on your post.
Feb 23, 2024, 9:08 AM
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Oh, wait a minute, it was only a fly on the screen. Never mind.
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Tiger Spirit [9854]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 22, 2024, 1:42 PM
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Hopefully Neff will address this in the contract extension
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Orange Blooded [2593]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 2:50 PM
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THese are great stats and thank you!!!!!
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All-TigerNet [5904]
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Like a breath of fresh air
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Feb 22, 2024, 3:02 PM
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That's a well constructed argument.
It's refreshing to see a rational, thoughtful opinion based on facts.
I'm not really a basketball fan, but even I know Clemson is wildly inconsistent from game to game and tails off at the end of every season.
Thanks for the data points.
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CU Guru [1528]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 10:06 PM
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Shane Beamer math? The numbers are true, but Neff will more than likely look at the last 6-7 years, not 14. Anyone feeling the entire 14 will be used is kidding themselves. The last 6-7 years are better, given you still wish to use the “peer ranking” comparison. Maybe, but I’ll suspect you will select your categories very differently, if limited to the last 6 years..
I’ve said it before, Brownell will continue to be coach only based on wins & losses, but not on cherry picked stats. If Neff wanted to change the culture, he missed the his opportunity last year, barring complete and utter collapse this year.
Olemike would’ have just railed against the end of the first half last night, and the block and layup totally sucked. Your info is entertaining, but not very convincing.
If it was, Shane Beamer would be the 2nd best coach in the SEC. 90%+ in favored games. Joke is on them, SC is rarely favored.
Here’s to winning out the season! Go Tigers!
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 22, 2024, 10:12 PM
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Tell me you didn't read it without telling me.
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CU Guru [1528]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 10:14 PM
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Tell me the rankings on the last 6-7 years (maybe since 2018?). All Neff really cares about, right?
If the culture is gonna change, it falls on Neff. I doubt that’s in the cards.
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 22, 2024, 10:46 PM
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It’s in my OP. 2017 on.
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CU Guru [1528]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:00 PM
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Peer to Peer ACC rankings matter.
Like conference winning %. It balances out your selective categories and also probably shows why this guy is still here.
Go Tigers!
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CU Guru [1528]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 22, 2024, 11:18 PM
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If top 3rd of conference isn't good enough, boot him. If not, let's find another conference anyway. Regardless, your category makes Shane Beamer look like a world beater. Riiiiiight.
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Paw Master [17238]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 23, 2024, 8:24 AM
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You’re employing a false equivalency and you have significantly changed the goalposts from your original response. I haven’t had time to formulate a real response and it’s probably not worth the time since you’re being insincere, at best.
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CU Guru [1528]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 23, 2024, 9:11 AM
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Just showing the peer ranking facts. All of them available for transparency. You're welcome.
Rankings are important, right? Not so much when spread across a small % or range, but hey, I'll play along.
Criteria, standards, you know my take. Nail down the desired numbers that spell out success. Get away from the ambiguity. Fire when not met. What should the desired "Win when favored" % be?
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Scout Team [88]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
Feb 23, 2024, 9:05 AM
[ in reply to Re: The inconsistency myth ] |
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Given what you presented, I believe a natural question (and the theme of the original post) would be to wonder why Clemson is ranked near the bottom in terms of winning percentage among ACC schools in games they were favored to win since they are 6th of 15 ACC schools in wins since 2018 and 5th of 15 ACC schools in conference wins since 2018? One can imagine what their ranking for overall and conference wins would be if they had a better winning percentage against teams they were favored to beat originally.
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Orange Phenom [14652]
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Re: The inconsistency myth
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Feb 23, 2024, 9:01 AM
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User Logo
viztiz®
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The inconsistency myth 1 23
Feb 22, 2024, 11:35 AM
Reply
The last several days I've seen posts that go something like this:
"Team X beat Team Y tonight. It's just college basketball. You obviously don't watch much."
There are roughly 6000 basketball games played in a NCAA Division 1 season. It is not statistically significant to point to any one game on any one day. What is significant is how teams, players, and coaches perform over time.
Since 2010, Clemson ranks the following:
As a favorite - 12th ACC / 166th Nationally
As a home favorite - 11th ACC / 158th Nationally
As an away favorite - 12th ACC / 283rd Nationally
This season:
As a favorite - 11th ACC / 205th Nationally
As a home favorite - 11th ACC / 230 Nationally
An an away favorite - 9th (of 12, three teams haven't been a favorite) ACC / 182nd Nationally
Just in case you think that since 2010 is unfair because it took time for Brownell to get established and one season isn't enough data to work with, here's since 2017 (Sweet 16 season):
As a favorite - 10th ACC / 118th Nationally
As a home favorite - 7th ACC / 95th Nationally
As an away favorite - 12th ACC / 262nd Nationally
This is the golden age of Brad Brownell basketball.
Make of it what you will, but anyone who insists our losing games to teams we should beat is "just basketball" are incorrect.
These are ranked by win percentage and all information is taken from teamrankings.com's team trends.
NOTHING LIKE WAKING UP TO YET ANOTHER SOLILOQY BASHING CLEMSON BASKETBALL BY GOOD OLD VIZCOOT. SO SAD TO HAVE SO MUCH HATE FOR ONE PERSON. ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU DO NOT EVEN GO TO ANY GAMES.
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Rival Killer [3065]
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Why does The Lunatic Fringe keeping beating the drum
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Feb 23, 2024, 1:47 PM
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Clemson is 18-8 and in the running for a double bye in the ACC Tournament. Brad Brownell is going to record his 6th 20-win season at Clemson and his 12th overall. This will be his fourth 20-win season in the last seven years. One of those years was the COVID year when the Tigers made the tournament. In 22 seasons as a head coach, he has had just one losing season. Enjoy the moment. Beating the I Hate Brad Brownell Drum is getting really tiresome. He is going to tournament. He is going to be your basketball coach. Go sniff football jocks.
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