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Replies: 27
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Offensive Star [307]
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Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 8:58 AM
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That is something to keep an eye on going forward. It is saying economic conditions worldwide suck.
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Ring of Honor [21851]
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Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:13 AM
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:17 AM
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That is what commodity markets are saying. Trump can put all the acreage he wants for lease, he cannot make them drill. Plus the easy and cheap oil is fracked, a practice limited lately due to serious pollution issues.
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Ring of Honor [23774]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:21 AM
[ in reply to Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .*** ] |
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Also, it isn't profitable to produce in the USA when it's under a certain price. It's used to be 80 dollars a barrel where it had to be. Not sure what it is now.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:29 AM
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Not for oil fracking. Depending upon area break even can be as low as $30. Saudi needs $95+ to break even as oil pays to run the country, after what the royals get their cut first. Their production cost was $10, not sure what it is now.
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Ring of Honor [23774]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:34 AM
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Saudi Arabia is around 10 dollars. The USA is around 50 to 60. Looked it up.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:53 AM
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That $10 is production costs only, they need $95+ to pay to run the country. Oil pays to run it and keep the royal family in power.
Permian Basin and Balkan Shale Field existing wells break even low$30. Offshore oil is considerably higher due to high costs of drilling, the production rigs , supply vessels,aviation assets and pipelines.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
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Apr 10, 2025, 9:54 AM
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I have worked the aviation side of oil my entire working life. Here in the USA and overseas in some very non touristy places.
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Ring of Honor [23774]
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Ring of Honor [23774]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
Apr 10, 2025, 9:58 AM
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Part of the reason I brought it was because I was driving across country once and stopped into Tyler TX and ran into an oil guy who said that town had been dead for years due to oil being too cheap. They needed 80 per barrel at the time to turn a profit. It always got me thinking.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Drill Baby Drill oh wait there might not be demand .***
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Apr 10, 2025, 10:03 AM
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Depends on if it requires pressure injection to maintain oil flows. Older fields will require it.
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Tiger Spirit [9862]
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: They need $95
Apr 10, 2025, 10:40 AM
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Sovereign wealth fund for that. Oil keeps the royals in toys and in power.
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Paw Master [16574]
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Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia.
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Apr 10, 2025, 10:45 AM
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Russia budget's based on being able to sell their oil at just under $70 per barrel. Russian Ural oil is currently slightly above $50 per barrel. For a country already spending a third of their federal budget on an unnecessary war, this is a huge hit to their tax revenue. Not to mention that the costs associated with selling their oil has gone up considerably with the sanctions and shutdown of most efficient pipeline. Russia is just going to go broke faster now.
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Orange Phenom [14289]
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Re: Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia.
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Apr 10, 2025, 10:47 AM
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So you are saying, in Mother Russia you don't drill oil, oil drills you?
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia.
Apr 10, 2025, 10:48 AM
[ in reply to Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia. ] |
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We all are broke speaking of nations. It is just who can put lipstick on a pig for longer now.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia.
Apr 10, 2025, 11:40 AM
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WTI down a little over 4% currently.
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Paw Master [16574]
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Yes but some countries can borrow money cheaply and some can't.
Apr 10, 2025, 11:52 AM
[ in reply to Re: Good for Ukraine, bad for Russia. ] |
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Russia's government 10 year bond yield is around 16%. Ours is below 5%.
I don't think it can be overstated how unbelievably stupid Vladimir Putin's decision was to attack Ukraine...followed by his decision to continue the war when it became evident that victory wouldn't be achieved in 3 days. Much like Trump's trade war madness, one single man's irrational obsession has potentially destroyed Russia. It has certainly set it back multiple decades.
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Paw Master [16574]
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Not that I don't recognize the US government debt as an issue. We certainly
Apr 10, 2025, 11:53 AM
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need to address it. We're just structurally different than Russia right now...again, if we can survive Trump's economic and foreign policies.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Valley Legend [12498]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 11:40 AM
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he is killing russia/china ability to make war
china is struggling and may lash out like a tnet liberal
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 11:44 AM
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How is oil killing China? They import vast amounts and have set up partnerships with Saudi. Saudis skirt OPEC quotas by owning refineries around the world, any oil shipped to one of those does not count against the quotas.
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 11:44 AM
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China being but one of those places.
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Valley Legend [12498]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 11:46 AM
[ in reply to Re: Oil is still dropping ] |
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by reducing chinese factory production, reducing the demand
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 11:49 AM
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Ummm, that may actually push them to war. We did that with Japan remember. Push someone far enough in to a corner and leave them with only one response, lasj=hing out.
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Rock Defender [52]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 10:19 PM
[ in reply to Re: Oil is still dropping ] |
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he is killing russia/china ability to make war
china is struggling and may lash out like a tnet liberal
He’s such a great daddy to you.
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Ring of Honor [21545]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 10, 2025, 10:57 PM
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You'd probably be able to answer something then...I'm hearing Russia's got a major problem because of insufficient storage capacity...they can only hold so much (and the Ukrainians have been blowing these up left and right) and once they're full, they supposedly have to take pumps offline. You do that in a permafrost region and apparently the wellheads will freeze over, and it then takes at least as much effort if not more to re-drill it. So they've been systematically losing production capacity...which they will apparently never be able to replace without Western help. Which we aren't giving again.
Do you have any idea how widespread this is, and what kind of chunk it's taking out of their economy?
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Offensive Star [307]
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Re: Oil is still dropping
Apr 11, 2025, 8:31 AM
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Everyone can have storage issue in fact. We experienced it during the beginning of Covid. Oil was being stored in tankers, not moving. It is why oil went negative on deliveries for a time, I spent a year waiting to make 20% on oil etf's as not only did price crater it had a reverse 10-1 spilt.
As to Russia I only know what a few people I know that worked over there said, it was miserable and workers(Russians) sucked. Pay them and they would vanish on drunken binges, they went to monthly pay because of it. Well heads are easily fixable, it is the damage to reservoir that is most concerning to oil producing. Western firms did a lot of work there at one time, now with the issues that has ended so spares are a problem.
Like I said no first hand info on Russian oil, the Saudis damaged several fields by their price war with OPEC/Russia by pumping too much to flood market and win market share. Those now require pressure injection to maintain flow and keep salt water intrusion out.
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