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1st Rounder [635]
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Any infectious contagion experts here?
Mar 17, 2020, 8:43 AM
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I wonder about all the extra cleaning stores,malls, fast food, dit down places claim to be doing, specifically whether it will actually do any real good. Considering that the surface is only actually sterile until the next person touches it is it being done more so in attempt to soothe the publics fears?
While anything cleaner should be good I do wonder about the costs being worth it in truth. Same with local curfews and shelter in place orders. While also good when they are lifted and someone visits infected from another city or State starting the whole process over again.
We lie between a rock and a hard place on this IMHO as we are a vast and populated Nation broken up in to 50 fiefdoms. This is why the mandates should/must come down from the Federal Government on how best to tackle this event. Sadly it seems some of those running the fiefdoms have better plans than the Big Cheese Whiz and his minions.
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CU Medallion [58518]
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That would be everyone here.***
Mar 17, 2020, 8:52 AM
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Oculus Spirit [78876]
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We mostly concentrate on sexually transmitted varieties.***
Mar 17, 2020, 9:01 AM
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Hall of Famer [24855]
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Latex shortage...?***
Mar 17, 2020, 9:03 AM
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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I'm reading stuff that has a life expectancy limit...
Mar 17, 2020, 9:02 AM
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when it settles on surfaces. Of course some say it's an hour and some say 4 hrs until it dies.
I know the cheapest way to sanitize is with a spray bottle with a mixture if bleach and water. The say alcohol solutions 60-70% pure will kill it so I use 91 percent in a 3 dollar Walmart spray bottle then wipe it off with one of those 2'X2' 100% cotton cloths you get at Walmart for about a dollar each.
I use mechanic's gloves to protect from the alcohol and don't take them off until I toss the rags in the washer.
I agree that federal government should be heavily involved in managing things which one state can not force upon another. I do not think states should ask DC to do anything we can do for ourselves. I especially liked that Trump stopped incoming from China but I resent that South Carolina DHEC didn't have stockpiles of mask, gowns, respirators and ventilators to handle emergency situations like this.
Imo, if anyone has a complain about federal failures to do things which each state could have, should have or would have done then they might need to try objective reasoning rather than finding someone to blame state failure on federal government.
You never considered any of that because you're ready to surrender state's rights to gain false security from the same federal government you're charging with failure.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: I'm reading stuff that has a life expectancy limit...
Mar 17, 2020, 9:30 AM
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Your Emperor has no clothes my man. States have local juritiction over things confined to the borders of said State during emergencies, such as fires, eathquakes and hurricanes. A global pandemic is something far different.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: I'm reading stuff that has a life expectancy limit...
Mar 17, 2020, 9:32 AM
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Even then during those event the FEDS step in to help with relief supplis, right?
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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Feds are to serve us.
Mar 17, 2020, 9:41 AM
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Yes, SC or NY couldn't shut down travel from China. SC or NY could have ordered anything SC or NY needs. Sure the feds should help as much as possible but the federal government is slow. We are now in a state of emergency which gives the president power to do that which is doable.
He can't chit safety equipment and supplies anymore than you or I. He called together people who manufacture here and put them to work. You want him to show up at 3M every morning and put straps on respirators or ventilators?
WTPh do you want him to do?
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: You ignore what you don't understand.
Mar 17, 2020, 9:44 AM
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Coming from you I'll take that as a compliment. What you ignore is anything related to your Emperor due to your son getting a job, simple as that my man. Basing all upon something so very narrow is not nisguided but dumb.
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CU Medallion [60099]
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Re: You ignore what you don't understand.
Mar 17, 2020, 9:47 AM
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if you are doing all of that because you go ourside. I feel sory for you. That is no way to live. I was saying that I would rather die than live like you are and scared at every corner of a virus that is killing 1% that it is infecting and majority of those are not in our age bracket.
You extreme fear is showing and its sad.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: You ignore what you don't understand.
Mar 17, 2020, 10:19 AM
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You mistake fear for respect for what the virus can do , nothing more or less. Being prepared and taking precautions is prudent.Precautions taken now ensure many years of boating,kayaking,hiking and golf, seems like a few months is worth it. But you do you okay?
Your inability to see or think what is currently occurring in Italy happening here is showing and that is sad.
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Recruit [92]
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Re: Any infectious contagion experts here?
Mar 17, 2020, 9:03 AM
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Think of it this way.
Lets say X is the number of people that are going to get infected. We need to get to that number over several months. That way we can have beds for them and we can treat them and they (most) will get better.
If we get to that number in one or two months, then some Y number of people who might have had made it if there were beds and med staff to treat but since there was a huge surge of sick, didn't get treatment.
Its the rate of infection not that fact that there are infections. We must spread this out.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Any infectious contagion experts here?
Mar 17, 2020, 9:22 AM
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Oh, I totaly agree we gotta flatten out the rise of cases needing hospitalization. If not we do not have the means to deal with case loads.
My question falls more to is all the extra cleanings doing good or is it an attempt to get people out spending money? When best case it would be shutting down for a few weeks.
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CU Medallion [60099]
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Re: Any infectious contagion experts here?
Mar 17, 2020, 9:05 AM
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If you have been to Target or Wal Mart or the Mall or riding on the airplane, you have gotten a bad cold or the flu. This is the same. If you expect us to live in a society where we all are hunkeered down every single time someone gets a positive test, I dont want to live in that world.
You bunch of looney toones are the worst.
Stop with the hand waving. Its already old.
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CU Medallion [56190]
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What's reassuring to me is that no matter how bad things get
Mar 17, 2020, 9:09 AM
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you maintain the same chipper, sunny disposition.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: Any infectious contagion experts here?
Mar 17, 2020, 9:18 AM
[ in reply to Re: Any infectious contagion experts here? ] |
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Is the goal to win or not? You miss the point, like on many things , one must act in a way that can defeat the spread of this across the country right? Or are you just admitting we are gonna get swamped so the best policy is to say screw it?
This is not the same old flu , latest reports say that severe cases that do survive have a 20%-30% reduced lung capacity. So how is that gonna work out for an already broke Medicare system?
It's cool though, I have taken the best practice protections to avoid getting it since January, if you choose to deny, deflect or take little to no precautions then that outcome is yours alone. Maybe the hoaxers, deniers and all those saying it's just the flu will have some pithy comments to a dying loved one should it come to that in their circle.
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Oculus Spirit [97838]
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It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped,
Mar 17, 2020, 9:09 AM
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just managed at best. Social distancing helps slow the spread, but also does not stop a virus that can survive in the air easily for 1-2 hours, and up to 4 hours, and last days on surfaces. Even isolated, you can bring it in your home on your shoes and clothes. Walk through a deserted park, sit on an empty bench. You can still catch it. Even with the elderly isolated, you going to the store and bringing them food, it can come in their house. My next grocery store run for mom will include me bringing the food, wiping each item with a wipe, and leaving it on the porch table then leaving. Mom will then come out and take in the groceries. That's the best I can do. But slowing it HELPS hospitals keep up treating the critically ill. So yes, do whatever you can.
Although not officially released, the r0 for this is somewhere north of twice as high as the flu. Could be way higher, but there's ample evidence it's at least twice as contagious. And ample evidence it's at least twice as deadly overall, and many many times more deadly for the elderly and people with conditions.
And one thing that is interesting is the disease is starting to expose conditions in younger people who die that were unknown. A soccer coach in Italy died at 21yo. They found he had a totally undiagnosed case of leukemia.
And the most sinister thing about this is how it starts and transmits among people. Many people have zero of very mild symptoms. Then when they pass it along, it starts off as mild symptoms too, and can take a week or more to get severe, and ultimately deadly. This is how it is spreading so easily. The young are actually the ones spreading it the most. Healthy, they have zero or minimal symptoms. They keep working, keep doing whatever, not understanding they're spreading something that will kill grandma.
And I'm no infectious disease expert. But my SIL's roommate from Clemson IS. She's also an ER director in LA, or San Diego, I forget. Her father posted his attendance at "supper club" on FB, which is something her father, and his friends, have done for years. They're all 70yo or so and live in SC. She TEXTED him to not go. To stay inside. To have food and supplies brought to him. Have no social contact or even leave the house. She is seeing dozens of people with the exact same conditions her father has, and in his age group, on ventilators. She's at ground zero. It was chilling to see. Her father passed the TEXT to the supper club group and they all cancelled. It's a group of perhaps 8-10 couples in their 70's. No more than 20 people. And she was still VERY stark in TELLING him not to go and to STAY HOME AND ISOLATE. TEXT made it to inlaws who passed it on to wife. Now wife is freaking because her parents did nothing to prepare. We will be going to get them supplies and food this weekend and they are now taking the advice of their daughter's roomate and lifelong family friend. They too ignored the news and thought it was all blown out of proportion. Not anymore.
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CU Medallion [58518]
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It's all about mitigation.***
Mar 17, 2020, 9:33 AM
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped,
Mar 17, 2020, 9:41 AM
[ in reply to It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped, ] |
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We come home from work or store and strip down in the garage, clothes go in basket to be washed on high temp water( hot water heater is set almost full high now) and with Lysol. So nothing good/nice is worn outside right now. Shoes are Lysol sprayed and left in garage. Food items are brought in and washed/wiped down with a sanitizer.
I guess my question is whether this is really slowing down the spread or being done to soothe peoples minds and get them out spending money. If cleanings even are done every 4 hours seems like it is a costly way to achieve really little.
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Hall of Famer [24855]
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Look at the pollen... You can even SEE it... Tough call.***
Mar 17, 2020, 10:09 AM
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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That won't decontaminate you.
Mar 17, 2020, 10:23 AM
[ in reply to Re: It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped, ] |
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It takes a dirty room, shower room and clean room to properly decontaminate a human. You must go into the dirty room and undress, step through a plastic flap door into the shower and decontaminate then step through another plastic flap door into a clean room to dress. I won't go into details of how to handle a mask during that process. You're not going to do it.
I do not care what people tell you on twitter. There is no way a contaminated person enters a house without contaminating that house. That's why medical professionals don't tell you how to decontaminate yourself. They tell you to use social distancing.
That's your choice. If you go to work with people in small spaces you risk contamination. It's your choice right now. In China they had no choice. The authorities screwed the doors of apartments closed with people inside to prevent the spread. I saw the video of them doing that.
No one is going to screw your door shut and no one is going to force you to do anything at this time. You are responsible for you and others appreciate you quarantining yourself if you get sick.
No one is trying to con you. You are an American and have a choice how you behave.
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Oculus Spirit [97838]
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I did that for the first time last night coming home.
Mar 17, 2020, 10:29 AM
[ in reply to Re: It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped, ] |
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Strip in garage. Walked nekkid to the washing machine, dropped in. Next to sink and washed hands for 30 seconds. Then back to grab all laundry and washed it. Then straight to the shower.
Shoes stay in the garage.
But taking these steps helps. It saves lives. That's how everyone should look at it. Anyone with a relative over 50yo and/or with a condition, take precautions for THEM, not yourself. Many people can actually work with this, and work fine. Some get mildly ill, or maybe enough to take a few days off work. EVERYONE infected should stay isolated for at least 14 days until this declines. If your kid has a slight cough or sniffles and you think it's pollen, keep them home. It may be pollen. It may not. This is why testing is so essential to control. I'd wager there are a million Americans who have this now, and 80% of them probably don't know it. And won't know it. And keep working, etc. and exposing others to it. Or many people have it, are shedding the virus, and it may be a week or more before their condition gets bad. The lawyer in NY who died and seeded an epicenter, he had it for 9 days with symptoms. They were mild. He kept working. Day 9 things turned worse, he sought treatment, and then ended up dying. 9 days he was able to continue working, traveling to work, and spreading it, when it ultimately killed him. Now hundreds of cases stem from his single case.
It is evil in how it lurks undetected in the healthy, and even those susceptible, the symptoms come on VERY slowly, allowing it to spread. In fact, the best way to differentiate this from the flu is how slowly this progresses. This and the flu have basically the same symptoms. But the flu hits you and hits you hard in a day or two tops. This can take many days, or even a week or more for the symptoms to steadily get worse, slowly.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: I did that for the first time last night coming home.
Mar 17, 2020, 10:39 AM
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I am just over 60 and the wife is 56. Very soon I may have my way older mom and stepdad living in my home so anything I can do on a personal home level is done out of attempting to limit possible contamination.
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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TD for no pig of wife.
Mar 17, 2020, 10:58 AM
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I took you for a youngun. Sorry, I'll try to show more respect next time.
I recommend bleach to decontaminate things which can handle bleaching. Doorknobs, fridge handles, bat tubs etc.
If the isophoric alcohol isn't all gone a spray bottle with a 70% alcohol and 30% water will work too. If the IPA is gone you can buy a gallon of denatured alcohol at Lowes, Homedepot or any Sherwin Williams paint store. Auto paint stores and Walmarts sell it too.
I share my home with one of my children who works. I expect to find out if God will protect me or if it's my time to go. Frankly, when I consider my departure I only think about my children and grandchildren and how they will ever get by without me.
Then I remember, it was my God who got them by during those times I though it was me.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: TD for no pig of wife.
Mar 17, 2020, 11:28 AM
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Well, thanks for advice but to be honest I lived in the epicenter of the MERS outbreaks on a yearly basis and use the same practices employed that kept me safe over there. I watched whole hospital staffs wiped out from that virus.
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Oculus Spirit [81249]
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Oculus Spirit [97838]
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Now make every effort not to get sick or spread this.
Mar 17, 2020, 11:32 AM
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hth
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Oculus Spirit [81249]
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At some point, we'll stop the body count because everyone
Mar 17, 2020, 11:37 AM
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will have it.
Like I said from the beginning--you'll either get it or you won't, and you'll either die from it, or you won't.
Watching the news last night, they are seeing a lot more younger people have complications from it here than in other countries.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: At some point, we'll stop the body count because everyone
Mar 17, 2020, 11:45 AM
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For some reason obesity plays a role as does diabetes. Last time out i noticed there were not a lot of svelte folks . Have a friend that is 350 or so and shoots insulin 3x a day taking zero precautions and laughing at those that do, he gets it and he will be taking a dirt nap.
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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Re: At some point, we'll stop the body count because everyone
Mar 17, 2020, 11:51 AM
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Survival of the fittest and the luckiest. He might make it.
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1st Rounder [635]
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Re: At some point, we'll stop the body count because everyone
Mar 17, 2020, 12:00 PM
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Only way I can see luck playing in to it would be to be an early adopter so to speak. That is get it and if in need of hospitalization it is gonna be best to be in the early portion of the curve before we run out of beds and ventilators.
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Oculus Spirit [97838]
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Yep. It will trend younger in the US due to diabetes/weight
Mar 17, 2020, 1:04 PM
[ in reply to Re: At some point, we'll stop the body count because everyone ] |
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Sooooo glad I started this diet after the natty game. Down 30 lbs now. Got another 20 to go, but I know my blood sugars are FINE now. They can't be high on less than 50g of carbs a day.
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Legend [17826]
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Re: It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped,
Mar 17, 2020, 11:24 AM
[ in reply to It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped, ] |
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"And the most sinister thing about this is how it starts and transmits among people. Many people have zero of very mild symptoms. Then when they pass it along, it starts off as mild symptoms too, and can take a week or more to get severe, and ultimately deadly. This is how it is spreading so easily. The young are actually the ones spreading it the most. Healthy, they have zero or minimal symptoms. They keep working, keep doing whatever, not understanding they're spreading something that will kill grandma."
This past Friday I picked up my daughter and two friends at the airport after they spent the past week in Florida for spring break. I brought them up to speed on the world They were mostly focused on their disappointment that the next month of their classes would be online... and did not believe me when I said that the rest of their senior year would be online and that there would be no graduation ceremony (they are in college). In their eyes I read "you are full of chit (as 1988 says)".
Little germ vectors.
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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Re: It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped,
Mar 17, 2020, 11:30 AM
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Ah the good old days when naivety made us all 10' tall and bulletproof.
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Oculus Spirit [97838]
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Just so you don't think I'm crazy
Mar 17, 2020, 1:14 PM
[ in reply to Re: It helps. Everything helps. But this can not be stopped, ] |
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By these numbers, and knowing we have tested MUCH LESS than China did, you can safely assume AT LEAST 50,000 Americans are currently infected. Could be a million or more.
Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221![]() Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
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110%er [6101]
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Re: Any infectious contagion experts here?
Mar 17, 2020, 10:35 AM
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WHO (whatever THATS worth) states the virus survives on surfaces one to two days, hence the “don’t touch your face caution”. Acidic cleaners are more effective at removal than alkaline types since the virus prefers alkaline pH. Windex w/acetic acid works well but it’s not known whether it has a lasting residual effect. The one I make kills in seconds and has a known residual of 72hrs, minimum.
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Oculus Spirit [94221]
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Share that formula please.
Mar 17, 2020, 11:32 AM
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It's too late to make money on it due to lack of manufacturing and marketing window being closed.
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50
