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Rival Killer [2823]
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Game Changer [1878]
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Re: People drafted by star rankings
Apr 30, 2018, 5:58 PM
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I wish there was a way to know percentages the breakdown. Obviously there are more 3 stars but I’m sure the percentage is much higher of 4 and 5.
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Paw Warrior [4740]
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Math
Apr 30, 2018, 6:04 PM
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5 18 = 7.03%
4 80 = 31.25%
3 97 = 37.89%
2 31 = 12.11%
Unranked 30 = 11.72%
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Orange Blooded [2178]
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There you go, less attractive
Apr 30, 2018, 6:08 PM
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People work harder and are better lovers. Definitely true about me. Haha.
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Paw Warrior [4740]
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Re: Math
Apr 30, 2018, 6:12 PM
[ in reply to Math ] |
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And in case you meant the percentage of recruited players that get ranked as 2, 3, 4 and 5 stars...
Generally, this is about how that shakes out. And I'm only talking about players rated 2 stars are better... not all of the NCAA football players.
5* 1%
4* 10%
3* 39%
2* 50%
Just think of it as 1-10-40-50. Half of the players that are ranked are 3* and up. Half are not.
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Campus Hero [13753]
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Yep, good info.***
Apr 30, 2018, 6:18 PM
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MVP [514]
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I think he means percentage of each group drafted
Apr 30, 2018, 6:26 PM
[ in reply to Math ] |
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i.e. what was the percentage of 5 stars drafted that were available to be drafted. This is a list of the percentages from 247. The numbers differ from the list in the original post as the rankings from services are different.
5-star: 33 (57.6%)
4-star: 296 (23.6%)
3-star: 1,541 (6.9%)
2-star: 1,666 (1.1%)
NR: NA
https://247sports.com/Article/NFL-Draft-recruiting-rankings-go-hand-in-hand--117819292
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Game Changer [1878]
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Re: I think he means percentage of each group drafted
Apr 30, 2018, 7:19 PM
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I assume this is the scenario I was talking about. Only way to normalize as there are guessing 500+ 3 stars so of course higher numbers. There are usually 25 or so 5 stars so the percentage can account for that difference.
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Game Changer [1878]
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Re: I think he means percentage of each group drafted
Apr 30, 2018, 8:05 PM
[ in reply to I think he means percentage of each group drafted ] |
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Didn’t think this was MBA level of mat but thanks. Didn’t have the time to pull the numbers but they make sense. Teams with more 4 and 5 stars compete at a higher level in college and send them to the NFL on a higher percentage base.
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Game Changer [1878]
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Re: Math
Apr 30, 2018, 8:03 PM
[ in reply to Math ] |
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Thanks genius... now I understand how to divide 2 numbers to make a percent and call it math.
I meant only way to normalize such a large dataset is to take the number of 5 stars drafted and calculate the percent of those 5 stars out of the total 5 star population. Then do the same thing for 4,3, and lower. This gives you the normalized percentage to see how accurate recruiting rankings are. And for what it’s worth I’m betting the percentage is much higher for 5 and 4 stars.
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Paw Warrior [4740]
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Re: Math
Apr 30, 2018, 9:38 PM
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Well your intuition was correct. I posted 3 different times with various answers because I couldn't understand exactly what you were asking. I eventually figured out the ME in your handle likely meant mechanical engineering and that you probably had a few math classes in your time. So, I apologize if my post came across as condescending. That wasn't my intent.
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Game Changer [1878]
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Re: Math
Apr 30, 2018, 9:41 PM
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No worries and thanks for looking up the total population percentages as I didn’t have that before.
But someone else looked up the percentages within the star groups so question answered. I thought that was the case but it seems recruiting stars and nfl draft have been validated. I know it’s not an exact science but let’s keep those 4 and 5 star recruits rolling
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Campus Hero [13753]
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Just FYI, this is roughly the breakdown of star ratings
Apr 30, 2018, 6:12 PM
[ in reply to Re: People drafted by star rankings ] |
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on kids coming out of HS:
5 star - less than 1% of all rated recruits
4 star - 11-12%
3 star - 37-38%
2 star - ~50%
I also read that only about 1% of HS SRs even get rated at all. There were something like 300,000+ SRs playing HS football in the freshman class i saw the data for, and only a little over 3,000 of them even got rated by recruiting services.
Comparing this to what Fluxus posted, a 3-star seems like a solid average baseline here as there are roughly the same % of 3* in an average freshman class as got drafted this year. When compared to a 3-star player, 5-star players are about 7x more likely to get drafted, 4-star players are about 3x more likely to get drafted, and 2* players are about 4x less likely to get drafted.
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Paw Warrior [4740]
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Re: Just FYI, this is roughly the breakdown of star ratings
Apr 30, 2018, 6:38 PM
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Well, I've spent more time on this than I wanted, but it's an interesting subject.
So if we ask what % of X-star players get drafted, the answers get interesting. In other words, what % chance to you have to be drafted based on your star rating as a high school senior.
I've used the ratings from 2018 Rivals recruit rankings and the star ratings of those that were drafted this year. Here's what you get:
5* has a 54.4% chance of getting drafted.
4* has a 20% chance of getting drafted.
3* has a 6.9% chance of getting drafted.
2* has a 1.7% chance of getting drafted.
0* has a 0.001% chance of getting drafted.
From there you can derive some analysis like 5 star recruits are more than twice as likely as 4 star recruits to get drafted and more than 7x times more likely to get drafted than a 3 star recruit.
I'm going to have to stop now because it's starting to feel a little OCD-ey.
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110%er [5045]
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Re: People drafted by star rankings
Apr 30, 2018, 6:51 PM
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But think about the number of available players at those rankings.
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Hall of Famer [22127]
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Re: People drafted by star rankings
Apr 30, 2018, 7:12 PM
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If one would establish the odds of any one in each star group being drafted, the odds for one in the two star group would be astronomical. The odds for an individual in each star group being drafted might be a better measure. Regardless of the star ranking of a player when he is being recruited, his final star ranking is determined where he goes in the draft and that is the most important ranking.
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Heisman Winner [85909]
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Keep in mind a lot who get a low number of stars
Apr 30, 2018, 10:29 PM
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do so because of academics and not being able to get in a power 5 school. They may be a 5 star talent but only get two or three because of grades.
Message was edited by: josephg®
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Clemson Icon [27685]
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Oh boy... This is gonna give the cluckers hope...
Apr 30, 2018, 10:46 PM
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You know with all the 2 and 3 stars they have...
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Ring of Honor [22959]
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It's just what most would expect
Apr 30, 2018, 11:03 PM
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Higher-rated recruits have a much, much higher chance of being successful players and making it to the NFL. There might be more 3 or 4 star guys getting drafted, but that's only because there are vastly more 3 and 4 star recruits coming out of high school. 18 5-stars were drafted.. out of how many 5 star recruits in their class? 25-30? That's a pretty high percentage.
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