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Ultimate Clemson Legend [102645]
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Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
Nov 11, 2024, 9:48 AM
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As did this story I just read. Seems Trump has lost the local news stations. Oh well, they're dinosaurs.
https://www.wistv.com/2024/11/11/companies-prepare-hike-prices-offset-trumps-tariff-plans
Anyway......
Let's pretend Trump does what he says he will do. 10-20% on everything, and 60-100% on China. I know the mouth-breather argument is make Chinese imports more expensive, and those jobs will come back to the USA. And inflation just won't happen for some reason. Ok, let's assume that. As we're already 7 million workers short WITH the Chinese imports and north of 12 million illegals, and have near full employment, and we're going to ship 12 million units of labor back to Mexico and countries south of there?
I'm almost positive Trump has no clue what he's up against and is just vote-pandering. But assuming he does what he says, all companies will do is locate, invest in, and move to an even cheaper foreign country than China (China has gotten expensive and was on the outs anyway). We leveraged Japan, then Mexico, then China, and we will just move to the next. Vietnam, Bangladesh, (probably) India, etc.
If you're a huge company this is literally a goldmine opportunity to increase profits. Everyone expects things to get more expensive, and that's AWESOME for a company leveraging dollars with foreign labor. So they move operations from China to Vietnam, make the same item 20% cheaper in Vietnam than in China, and then charge 20% more for it because people expect it to get at least 20% more expensive, and PROFIT. The one thing that will NOT happen, is these jobs will not "return" to America.
I'm starting to understand the market's love of Trump more and more.
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Tiger Titan [48519]
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MIMR
Nov 11, 2024, 10:10 AM
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Made_In_Mother_Russia... where they work for vodka
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Campus Hero [13174]
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Simple
Nov 11, 2024, 10:12 AM
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the market is full of "mouth-breathers".
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All-American [558]
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Re: Simple
Nov 11, 2024, 8:44 PM
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the market is full of "mouth-breathers".
The long dissertation about tariffs and shipping immigrant labor south to Mexico is on the money.
The main reason for inflation in 2021 was that BIG OIL pretended that they had a good reason to raise prices of diesel and gasoline. While they made record profits!!
(Why did BIG OIL do this to the American people, their main customers?? Two reasons: pure greed and it helped TheRump on his way to re-election. BIG OIL has a vested interest in seeing electrical vehicles fail. And TheRump told them he will open national monuments, national forests and some parks to oil drilling as well as opening all oceans to oil drilling. Plus, he told BIG OIL that he will defend or close the EPA. (Dirty air and nasty polluted rivers are on the way.)
And, just because he doesn't care about Americans he will reduce Soc Sec, Medicare, Medicaid -- even if he said he wouldn't. He's got to cut costs to give his bid taxcuts to the rich and the large corporations. Taxcuts for he & his friends are the second most on his agenda.
The most important thing was keeping himself out of jail.
Likewise, he will withdraw the US from NATO and let Russia take over Ukraine and Poland. Saves money; bigger taxcut for TheRump. Helps Putin. Putin gets payback for the Russian help to TheRump's campaign. (Of course, Putin and TheRump have been coordinating since 2020. The Rump sent copies of top secret docs from Maradogpile to Putin as a down payment.
But he will waste insane amounts of money trying to get revenge on a few people and try to close newspapers and ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS.
MEANWHILE, the US will be mired down in TheRump's Depression. And then all the cultists will love the lack of jobs, new tariff taxes, and empty shelves. You brought it on. ENJOY IT!!
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All-American [558]
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Re: Simple
Nov 11, 2024, 8:44 PM
[ in reply to Simple ] |
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the market is full of "mouth-breathers".
The long dissertation about tariffs and shipping immigrant labor south to Mexico is on the money.
The main reason for inflation in 2021 was that BIG OIL pretended that they had a good reason to raise prices of diesel and gasoline. While they made record profits!!
(Why did BIG OIL do this to the American people, their main customers?? Two reasons: pure greed and it helped TheRump on his way to re-election. BIG OIL has a vested interest in seeing electrical vehicles fail. And TheRump told them he will open national monuments, national forests and some parks to oil drilling as well as opening all oceans to oil drilling. Plus, he told BIG OIL that he will defend or close the EPA. (Dirty air and nasty polluted rivers are on the way.)
And, just because he doesn't care about Americans he will reduce Soc Sec, Medicare, Medicaid -- even if he said he wouldn't. He's got to cut costs to give his bid taxcuts to the rich and the large corporations. Taxcuts for he & his friends are the second most on his agenda.
The most important thing was keeping himself out of jail.
Likewise, he will withdraw the US from NATO and let Russia take over Ukraine and Poland. Saves money; bigger taxcut for TheRump. Helps Putin. Putin gets payback for the Russian help to TheRump's campaign. (Of course, Putin and TheRump have been coordinating since 2020. The Rump sent copies of top secret docs from Maradogpile to Putin as a down payment.
But he will waste insane amounts of money trying to get revenge on a few people and try to close newspapers and ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS.
MEANWHILE, the US will be mired down in TheRump's Depression. And then all the cultists will love the lack of jobs, new tariff taxes, and empty shelves. You brought it on. ENJOY IT!!
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Orange Beast [6290]
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Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
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Nov 11, 2024, 10:14 AM
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I think using tariffs to negatively impact our greatest global adversary is a good enough reason to at least threaten to use them. Why should we allow China to try to build a military to rival our own with the profits from one side trade deals? If those jobs go to countries that aren't actively attempting to undermine us on a global scale then why exactly would that be a bad thing again?
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [102645]
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In big boy Presidenting, you make those threats through diplomatic channels
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Nov 11, 2024, 11:50 AM
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Not on social media posts, or in a press conference, or a debate. Why? Because when you do that, PUBLICLY, you create an expectation among consumers that can then be abused.
If I'm Apple, or any company with big investments and supply coming from China, while it will be costly to relocate, that's less costly than keeping operations in China. BUT, it's still less to move to a cheaper country than come back home, which is what won't happen (Steve Madden). PLUS, you already have people expecting higher costs, which you can then use as further leverage to actually increase profits as you relocate and exploit even cheaper labor elsewhere.
American companies, long ago, learned how to avoid the governemnt. Avoid OSHA. Avoid environmental regulations, wage regulations, regulations on benefits, insurance, labor laws, everything. They will find ways around the tariffs. Easily. And most will probably find the cheaper labor they run to will increase their profits, especially since Trump has tipped off everyone to expect higher costs. Companies will raise the prices, blame the tariffs, and yet still rake in more profits as they're actually making the product even cheaper than before.
But hey, at least China won't be a problem anymore. Of course China plays our game and has already invested heavily in Africa, the cheapest source of labor on Earth. Practically the entire continent is theirs to leverager the yuan.
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Campus Hero [13174]
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Thank God we have someone
Nov 11, 2024, 11:52 AM
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who actually knows how to be president to let Trump know how it's done.
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Heisman Winner [86092]
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Heisman Winner [86186]
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One thing we know..prices won't come down from doing any of that***
Nov 11, 2024, 10:18 AM
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All-In [10861]
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wow, you hit the trump nail with the china hammer.
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Nov 11, 2024, 11:13 AM
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great example, tariff on china washing machine, prices go up 20%, then washing machines made in US increased price by 20%. Then made a nice profit for stock holders.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [102645]
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No, you missed my point.
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Nov 11, 2024, 12:31 PM
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If today GE manufactures a washing machine in China at a cost of $500 (including shipping), and they ship it to the US and sell it for $800 and make, say a $200 profit (minus $100 overhead in the US).
So China gets a 100% tariff, that would cost GE an extra $500 to make it in China. Well, that doesn't work. So they come back to the US where they can make it for $1200? No, they go to Vietnam, where they can make it for $200. BUT, due to the tariffs, the company can raise prices citing the tariff, while they're actually saving costs, EVEN with the 20% Vietnam vs. 100% China tariff), and their profit margins go up.
Or they keep the price the same, and still retain roughly the same profit margin. Either way, no jobs come back, they just go to a country with a combination of a weaker currency plus cheaper labor. Vietnam is a good example. India, Bangladesh, and Africa is wide open by the way. 20% cheaper than China, there's plenty of labor out there that meets the bill, that is STILL cheaper than bringing that job to the US.
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All-In [10811]
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Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
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Nov 11, 2024, 11:16 AM
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well, china wants to destroy us, why help them
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Ring of Honor [21277]
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Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
Nov 11, 2024, 12:40 PM
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China's dead in ten years no matter what they do.
They have a double population bomb about to go off...actually, it's in process of going off. What the Western world and Far East figured out - in many cases, way too late - is that when you urbanize, your birthrate plummets. In the country kids are a benefit, extra labor for the farm, in a city they're just plain expensive and few city-folk can afford to have many - or any! - of them. And the faster you urbanize, the faster that birth rate plummets. China has urbanized almost entirely in the last 30 years...1994 China was arse-backwards, rural, and poor as church mice. Their urbanization process has been insanely fast...as has their birth rate drop.
What that means is that they'd already have the world's largest population of folks about to enter retirement...even as they have the world's smallest replacement population under them to fill vacated jobs and pay taxes to support the retired. That's beyond terminal all on its lonesome.
But wait! There's more! Just in case the Chinese hadn't #%^$ed themselves beyond saving already, they also instituted the One Child Only policy in 1980...and didn't relax it until 2013, at which point the Communist Party belatedly - way too belatedly, actually - did the math and realized how far in the hole they really were. But by then China was far too urbanized to raise the birth rate...in fact it's still dropping even though One Child Only is gone. It's below 0.5 in the cities now. (2.1 is replacement level.)
China does not need our help falling apart. They're doing a bang-up job of that all on their own.
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Ultimate Tiger [36000]
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Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
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Nov 11, 2024, 11:16 AM
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A message of economic populism coming from billionaires and hedge fund managers rings a little hollow. If you think the wealth in this country is going to swing from equities back to wages then, well, good luck with that.
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All-In [10861]
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why is Buffett so cash heavy now? hmmm***
Nov 11, 2024, 11:18 AM
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Ultimate Tiger [36000]
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Re: why is Buffet so cash heavy now? hmmm***
Nov 11, 2024, 11:22 AM
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We may well be on the verge of a correction, but I think I’ve read Buffett has said he can’t find good value in the equities markets now, and he anticipated/anticipates cap gains taxes to rise. At the end of the day the people collecting and spending the dollars aren’t building their wealth working W2 jobs, I’m not going to bet against their interests. Stonks only go up, so they say.
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
Nov 11, 2024, 11:20 AM
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I know the mouth-breather argument is make Chinese imports more expensive, and those jobs will come back to the USA. And inflation just won't happen for some reason.
I LOLed here because you nailed it. The argument from them in favor of it is non-sensical and just simply a "I gotta defend everything Trump does without knowing how anything works!"
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Clemson Icon [27497]
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I'm sure you're 100x more plugged in than me
Nov 11, 2024, 11:42 AM
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but I don't follow the logic here, nor the narrative.
Is this a gotcha or are we seriously thinking this policy is to reduce overall costs?
From my smooth-brain perspective the policy is more geared towards the following: job generation in certain verticals in this country, generating more independence in sourcing critical components/materials/goods from a non-adversarial country, and establishing a benchmark that is cost prohibitive from offshoring more production capabilities than we are currently seeing.
Here lately the outlandish claim was offsetting tax-payer burden for government revenue by paying that with tariffs. Massive claim and I'm not touching it without seeing some data.
Across the board...I'm skeptical but hopeful.
It'd be nice to see some objective modeling on this topic. Due to the immense polarization we're living through, I wouldn't feel comfortable making a conclusion based off various economists' comments without seeing their models and source data to reach said conclusions.
As someone who I know is deeply engaged into the simulation, I'm sure you have some commentary you could share. But do you have any data / models? I know we've gone around this topic a couple times...my stance hasn't changed. I'm on the fence.
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Campus Hero [13174]
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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I've posted this link many times...
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Nov 11, 2024, 12:37 PM
[ in reply to I'm sure you're 100x more plugged in than me ] |
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For those who support the tariffs AND can't give a good reason why they will work--each time they refused to read the article because, well, they know it's going to prove them wrong or maybe the words were too big. And it's by people far, far more knowledgeable about economics than any of us here.
I hope you'll actually read it because you're a pretty smart guy.
The short version of this is that tariffs are historically devastating and don't produce the desired effects. It also outlines how detrimental Trump's tariffs were during his first admin.
https://www.cato.org/publications/separating-tariff-facts-tariff-fictions#introduction
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Clemson Icon [27497]
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I don't recall seeing this posted, thanks
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Nov 11, 2024, 12:49 PM
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could've just overlooked too, not saying you ain't posted it.
I like linking to actual papers to read. I'd really like to see the numbers and touch them myself.
I am covered up until Thanksgiving week, but will try and dive into then.
Thanks again for sharing. I'm down to get in the weeds on this.
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Clemson Icon [27497]
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For example....
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Nov 11, 2024, 12:57 PM
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I could read this shid all day long.
https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/ks_protectionism_trade_balance.pdf
My favorite classes in college that I never use except for stellar Taggernet.pol debates were game theory modeling.
Nerding out in those models is ultimately why I became an anarcho-capitalist / believer of Austrian economics (to call out bias....could've been in large part due to learning this as ole Ben and Timmy were unleashing the beast of QE before we knew it).
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Heisman Winner [80813]
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Neither of these guys work in the industry, they aren't considering anything
Nov 11, 2024, 12:45 PM
[ in reply to I'm sure you're 100x more plugged in than me ] |
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past "price go up if no come from China". FWIW, I share your perspective.
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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Heisman Winner [80813]
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I've tried to discuss this with you and all you want to do is repost your link
Nov 11, 2024, 1:02 PM
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That's pretty hilarious that you post that Wikipedia link, considering a few days ago you told everybody who dared have an opinion about our medical system that we were stupid because we weren't doctors.
Let's take a snippet of your cato link here:
"The Trump administration accelerated that trend with extensive use of delegated powers to impose new tariffs. The administration imposed Section 201 tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, and Section 301 tariffs on Chinese products (henceforth, 2018–2019 tariffs)."
You know what happened in the wake of this? QCells(solar panels mfg) spend a few billion dollars building out/expanding their solar panel production in Georgia. Midea is expanding their Kentucky facility, GE Appliances is expanding in Tennessee, and same goes for Electrolux in Anderson.
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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It's not a discussion
Nov 11, 2024, 1:16 PM
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That's pretty hilarious that you post that Wikipedia link, considering a few days ago you told everybody who dared have an opinion about our medical system that we were stupid because we weren't doctors.
Y'all--whoever it was--were absolutely embarrassing yourselves in that thread.
But back to the point...
I've tried to provide you with actual evidence from people far more knowledgeable than me on the matter. Your response has been...
1. I'm not gonna read the evidence.
2. I work in the industry (You work in all industries!!!)
3. Slave labor!
So it hasn't been a discussion. It's you refusing to even look at the other side, plugging your ears, and insisting you're right.
READ. THE. DATA. AND. EVIDENCE.
You won't touch it because the economists say you're wrong.
Let's look at your last paragraph:
From the QCells website, they credit Biden, not Trump, for the expansion. But of course they like it--you're making Tiggity's point. This creates more revenue for them but doesn't address increased costs to buyers.
As for Midea and Electolux, maybe you better take a look at this link:
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/electrolux-midea-feel-the-burn-as-tariffs-continue-to-cool-china-s-exports-56976134
And how did GE feel about the tariffs?
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/8-strategies-ge-mitigate-tariff-cost-ISM/552270/
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Heisman Winner [80813]
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You don't want to have a discussion, like everything you want to
Nov 11, 2024, 1:28 PM
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tell everyone what's what.
I'm willing to discuss the other side, but I want a discussion not you posting links and saying GOTCHA!
#1 I don't think you or Tiggity understand how much automation can bring down production costs. It's not the 1980's or 90's anymore. Qcells can credit whoever they want, the reality is they pumped several billion into that facility. That has a ripple effect across the country, they need janitors, equipment suppliers, security guards, etc. Rising tide lifts all ships sort of deal.
Your last 2 links are from ~5 and 6 years ago. Fast forward to now and they're investing millions of dollars into expansion. What does that tell you?
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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I attempted to discuss it last time...
Nov 11, 2024, 1:35 PM
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By providing evidence. I'm not going to write out an essay rehashing what someone else researched and said when I can just link you to what they said. If I did type said essay, you still wouldn't read it.
You refused to look at the evidence. You admitted you weren't going to look. That's not a discussion.
Your last 2 links are from ~5 and 6 years ago. Fast forward to now and they're investing millions of dollars into expansion. What does that tell you?
Hmm, let's see...
Let's take GE. In 2022, they announced that they were raising prices to generate more revenue. It's almost like... wait for it... the cost went up for the consumer, just like everyone is saying will happen.
Now mega companies like GE and others you mention, they'll be okay. They'll find a way--by passing costs on to the consumer (which you incorrectly claimed in a previous thread they wouldn't do... yet here we are).
Tiggity said this in the OP: "If you're a huge company this is literally a goldmine opportunity to increase profits."
Thanks. You've made his point with your examples.
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Heisman Winner [80813]
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I've read the cato link, it really hasn't changed my perspective
Nov 11, 2024, 1:44 PM
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I think you're referring to GE aerospace, which is a different division. Even still, if they can expand by generating more revenue, it is possible that is a net benefit at the end of the day, even if the consumer is paying slightly more.
I also did not incorrectly claim that, in many cases the company eats the increased cost of production to stay competitive. I believe Flow even chimed in to say his company has done just that.
You are so focused on trying to be right you're not looking at the bigger picture I'm trying to paint for you.
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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Re: I've read the cato link, it really hasn't changed my perspective
Nov 11, 2024, 2:14 PM
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My apologies on mentioning the other thread; it was Tom in that same thread who stated costs wouldn't go up for the consumer.
No, I checked on GE. I had it right.
If you finally read the link and still think you're right, there's not much else I can say. I'm not focused on being right; I am right. Again, I punt to those with far more expertise who show the data that the tariffs are a bad idea. But if you still hold to your opinions in spite of that, I guess we'll just have to walk away from it.
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Orange Phenom [14407]
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Re: I've read the cato link, it really hasn't changed my perspective
Nov 11, 2024, 3:44 PM
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Why did Biden keep in place many tariffs if they’re always bad?
Not trying to be a smartass, I really don’t know.
But, I do know I didn’t see much hand wringing here about the Biden tarriffs.
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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Because tariffs are misguided leftist agenda
Nov 11, 2024, 6:32 PM
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Biden's continuation of the tariffs and the new ones were just as faulty and misguided, and I've said so.
But anyone who supports Trump's tariffs is a leftist when it comes to economics. Simple as that.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [102645]
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It makes sense in certain circumstances, which we are FAR removed from
Nov 11, 2024, 6:09 PM
[ in reply to Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking. ] |
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If we had 15-20% unemployment, if we had a booming younger population and not enough jobs and a very bad economy, if circumstances were different, then they may make sense. But as things stand now, we actually have the opposite problem. We have an aging, and declining population (but for illegals), 4% unemployment, 86% prime age labor participation, and well, it's the wrong direction. It's all visceral emotional garbage. Anyone who really thinks critically knows.
What companies will do is find even cheaper foreign labor, 20% cheaper than now, leverage the dollar better than in China, and sell the products for the same, or MORE because they can blame the tariffs, while making record profits. This is the Wall Street appeal. Those jobs won't come back, because we don't have 200,000 Americans available to assemble iPhones, much less the things the other 25-30 million Chinese people make for us. So they farm that off to Vietnam, India, wherever, both of whom would be cheaper than China, and boots prices maybe 10%, blame tariffs, and still make more money than they could bringing those jobs back home to a country without the domestic labor available.
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Clemson Icon [27497]
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not to distract from your post
Nov 11, 2024, 11:32 AM
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but have you, or anyone really, seen any legit - OBJECTIVE - models working through these numbers?
I've vocalized that I'm on the fence on this one and I still am.
Only way to truly look at it is through the numbers which I don't have, nor do I have the time to model it....maybe over Christmas break.
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Tiger Titan [45999]
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Again, Cato is your best resource...
Nov 11, 2024, 12:40 PM
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Because of expert economists and they are an economically conservative organization. I recommend the link I gave you in another response, but they have a plethora of other readings on tariffs.
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Clemson Conqueror [11586]
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Yes I have
Nov 11, 2024, 3:41 PM
[ in reply to not to distract from your post ] |
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The last round of Tarrifs resulted in billions of increased COGS at my company this round will be many multiples more if he does what he promised. Many products don't have domestic alternatives; at least not in volumes necessary to meet demand.
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Clemson Icon [27497]
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Are you willing to share what industry***
Nov 11, 2024, 8:47 PM
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All-In [10811]
TigerPulse: 100%
45
Posts: 10793
Joined: 2013
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Re: Tarriffs, and the Steve Madden shoes story got me thinking.
Nov 11, 2024, 12:04 PM
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lefties will sell out their own country to save a dollar on a shower curtain
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Game Changer [1865]
TigerPulse: 100%
31
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lol - yeah, because only lefties shop for bargains.
Nov 11, 2024, 12:12 PM
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Check out Walmart on Black Friday and tell me all those folks voted for Kamala.
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Walk-On [76]
TigerPulse: 70%
8
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Gridiron Giant [15748]
TigerPulse: 100%
50
Posts: 16726
Joined: 2015
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Tiggity got 14 threads about Trump tariffs. Zero about Bidens.***
Nov 11, 2024, 12:29 PM
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Game Changer [1865]
TigerPulse: 100%
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It's safe to say that the rates Trump was promising are much more aggressive
Nov 11, 2024, 12:40 PM
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compared to the tariffs that have been in place under Biden.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [102645]
TigerPulse: 100%
64
Posts: 67537
Joined: 2002
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I already said, Trump's prior tarriffs were targeted, and in sectors where
Nov 11, 2024, 12:49 PM
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American manufactures can be competitive. Same with Biden btw.
It was interesting. Trump granted "permanent exceptions" to certain tariffs for several countries, then reversed that later, breaking his word. I'm not sure anyone trusts him enough to do business with him, tariffs or not.
Congress should be doing this anyway, not Trump. That's a whole other problem.
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Clemson Conqueror [11586]
TigerPulse: 100%
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What was Biden supposed to do? Trump cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%
Nov 11, 2024, 3:49 PM
[ in reply to Tiggity got 14 threads about Trump tariffs. Zero about Bidens.*** ] |
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And partially "paid for it" by introducing additional Tarrifs to offset the revenue reductions. The corporate tax code is law, a president can't change that with an EO; so if you're stuck with one you're stuck with both. But that's the kinda thing a myopic devotee like you can't understand.
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Oculus Spirit [40865]
TigerPulse: 100%
57
Posts: 23713
Joined: 2012
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which companies should I be buying stock in?***
Nov 11, 2024, 7:10 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [36000]
TigerPulse: 100%
56
Posts: 11818
Joined: 2015
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All of them***
Nov 11, 2024, 7:39 PM
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Walk-On [76]
TigerPulse: 70%
8
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I'd wait until the inevitable Republican crash first. Buy 'em cheap***
Nov 11, 2024, 8:47 PM
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