Looking at Guard Play

Nov 17, 2025, 4:37 PM

So far through 4 games the forwards have been as advertised and have really run the offense well thus far. The guards, on the other hand, have been a pretty big letdown to this point, outside of Buckner and Foster (who gets a pass from me as he is a freshman).

Here are the leaders in Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions if only that player took shots) with OBPM in parentheses (basically how well the offense as a whole does when they are on the court):
- Jake Wahlin: 157.2 (6.6)
- R.J. Godfrey: 153.3 (5.9)
- Carter Welling: 143.3 (8.6)
- Ace Buckner: 134.0 (4.2)
- Chase Thompson: 130.9 (0.8)
- Nick Davidson: 130.8 (4.0)
- Jestin Porter: 116.5 (5.5)
- Dillon Hunter: 115.7 (-0.2)
- Butta Johnson: 112.1 (-1.8)
- Zac Foster: 102.8 (-4.0)

And defensively, the same stats, in order of best to worst Defensive Rating:
- R.J. Godfrey: 94.9 (5.8)
- Carter Welling: 95.4 (4.7)
- Zac Foster: 95.5 (3.0)
- Chase Thompson: 96.2 (5.5)
- Nick Davidson: 96.4 (5.3)
- Dillon Hunter: 96.5 (1.7)
- Ace Buckner: 96.7 (2.7)
- Jake Wahlin: 96.8 (2.6)
- Jestin Porter: 97.3 (-1.1)
- Butta Johnson: 97.4 (0.3)

And then their Net Rating which is Off. Rating minus Def. Rating (essentially the point differential per 100 possessions), with total BPM in parentheses (OBPM + DBPM):
- Jake Wahlin: 60.4 (9.2)
- R.J. Godfrey: 58.4 (11.7)
- Carter Welling: 47.9 (13.3)
- Ace Buckner: 37.3 (6.9)
- Chase Thompson: 34.7 (5.5)
- Nick Davidson: 34.4 (5.3)
- Jestin Porter: 19.3 (4.4)
- Dillon Hunter: 19.2 (1.5)
- Butta Johnson: 14.7 (-1.5)
- Zac Foster: 7.3 (-1.0)

So outside of Buckner, the guards aren’t really performing at a level good enough for the ACC. In the Georgetown game, only one out of the five guards who played had an above average Offensive Rating (league average is 110.6 which might decrease to around 100 once conference play starts), and that was Zac Foster with a 137.5. This was the first real test of the season, as Georgetown is projected to finish in the top 50 this year, and the guards went cold. Welling was by far the best player in the game, unless you include Chase Thompson (who only played 10 minutes), who had the highest net rating.

The only two guards who played down the stretch was Zac Foster (~+30 net rating) and Dillon Hunter, who had a 0.0 net rating, which was still somehow the highest of the remaining guard choices. Buckner had a -22.3 rating, Porter had a -20.1 rating, and Johnson had a -112.8 rating (due to no points scored so his O-rating was 0.0). Even going by BPM for the game, Foster and Hunter were still the only guards who had a positive impact on the game; every single other guard hurt the team by simply being on the floor, hence the reason those two were in at crunch time.

Dillon still is the rock that will hold this team together, but he’s fallen victim to comparison. He is not Chase, and he will never play like Chase. He is a playmaker, who is best when he can facilitate and play smart with the ball (he had an insanely high assist to turnover ratio last year). He’s also a much better defender than Chase was, so his value truly lies when the ball is NOT in his hands. He's only scored in the double digits 5 times in his entire career, and there is no reason to believe that will suddenly change at this point.

To conclude, Dillon Hunter and Ace Buckner have been the best guards to this point, however, Zac Foster and Dillon were the two best guards on the floor against Georgetown. As the season progresses, this may change, but I think Foster and Hunter will be the primary guards as the season moves along. Regardless, without decent guard play, this team won’t do much going forward when the real competition starts.

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Re: Looking at Guard Play

Good stuff and the numbers are exactly what we are seeing in games.

Dillon hunter is fine. Again, we knew what we had in him. He is a guy that knows the offense, doesn't turnt the ball over much, and has a knack for finding the open man and making the right pass. I was hoping he would be a better shooter this year. Hopefully that still is the case, but we haven't really seen that thus far.

Our big men have been great, especially Carter Welling. I think him and davidson need to start.

We are still incredibly early in the season. Our team will look much different by the end of the year. Our starting lineup by the end of the year may very well be Zac foster, Buckner, Wahlin, Davidson, and Welling.

Looking at Guard Play

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