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Replies: 24
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Dynasty Maker [3333]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Iowa.....wow. It's only one poll, but it'd be an extreme flip
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Nov 3, 2024, 8:40 AM
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Ann Selzer's poll in Iowa is one of the few that called it right in 2016 and 2020, so people give it some weight.
If the statistical probability of being right three elections in a row is lower than <50%, she is probably wrong. But my how much is the question. Even if she is wrong, the 2-1 margin amongst senior women is a terrible sign for Trump.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
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Gridiron Giant [15345]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Iowa.....wow. It's only one poll, but it'd be an extreme flip
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Nov 3, 2024, 9:01 AM
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I think Harris will win, but I don't buy this poll.
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Gridiron Giant [16024]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2016
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Re: Iowa.....wow. It's only one poll, but it'd be an extreme flip
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Nov 3, 2024, 9:02 AM
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Do Independent voters in Iowa = non-citizens?
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TigerNet Champion [118177]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 76361
Joined: 2003
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they may be conservative, but they are not stupid
Nov 3, 2024, 9:04 AM
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It is not like tricking the rubes in Kentucky to wait in line for hours at a free mobile Health care clinic while rejecting the ACA.
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Paw Master [16155]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 16882
Joined: 2015
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I take voting advice from 18 and 65 year olds.***
Nov 3, 2024, 9:09 AM
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Clemson Conqueror [11959]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Yeah Steve Bannon is 70, Trump is 78, and Giuliani is 80; so 65 years is way too
Nov 3, 2024, 11:52 AM
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young of a person for you to trust
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Valley Legend [12304]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 2002
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You have to look at the data...
Nov 3, 2024, 9:16 AM
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3% are not sure.
2% don't want to say
3.4% margin of error.
Given Harris has a 3% lead in this poll and that's within the margin of error and 5% don't know what they are doing, the only thing this poll shows it's that it's going to be close, which we all know.
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TigerNet Champion [118177]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 76361
Joined: 2003
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Re: You have to look at the data...
Nov 3, 2024, 5:30 PM
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every other poll has trump up 5-8 points in Iowa, so a bit of a swing. I am not sure if I buy it either, but as the OP said, this poll has predicted the winner in every election back to 2004, then back to 1992.
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Dynasty Maker [3333]
TigerPulse: 99%
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Even so, of you apply that to the 2:1 advantage amongst senior women
Nov 3, 2024, 9:42 AM
[ in reply to You have to look at the data... ] |
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Harris still wins this demographic by a wide margin and when you factor in the lack of active campaigning by either side going on in Iowa, it is strongly indicative of the organic political climate in such places, in this slice of the population. So then you ask what changed since 2020 to cause this shift. I strongly believe it was the Dobbs decision, but maybe it is just Trump/MAGA fatigue. IDK.
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Campus Hero [13368]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 16724
Joined: 2010
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obviously fraudulent***
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Nov 3, 2024, 9:38 AM
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National Champion [8072]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 10411
Joined: 2013
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Selzer has never been wrong by more than 4.
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Nov 3, 2024, 10:06 AM
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Even if Trump is up +1, he's significantly underperforming compared to 2020 when he also lost.
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Gridiron Giant [15345]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Re: Selzer has never been wrong by more than 4.
Nov 3, 2024, 2:00 PM
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Even if Trump is up +1, he's significantly underperforming compared to 2020 when he also lost.
Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020. He beat Hillary by almost 10% points and Biden by just over 8%, so if he's only up 1% point that is a big decline, but he hasn't lost in Iowa before.
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National Champion [8072]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 10411
Joined: 2013
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He lost the election in 2020.
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Nov 3, 2024, 2:13 PM
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So if he's doing worse in Iowa than he did in 2020, hard to imagine how he wins overall. Since Iowa is super white, maybe he can lose white women but pick up latinos?
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Campus Hero [13368]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 16724
Joined: 2010
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TigerNet Champion [118177]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 76361
Joined: 2003
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Re: More realistic
Nov 3, 2024, 11:19 AM
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which poll is that tom?
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National Champion [8072]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 10411
Joined: 2013
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Paw Master [16155]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 16882
Joined: 2015
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No***
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Nov 3, 2024, 5:56 PM
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All-In [10420]
TigerPulse: 97%
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Posts: 12950
Joined: 2021
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Re: Nothing against Emerson, they're typically pretty good.
Nov 3, 2024, 9:28 PM
[ in reply to Nothing against Emerson, they're typically pretty good. ] |
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Ugly women who had long ago given up on any chance of attracting a real man have a good reason for not voting for him.
Trump and his ‘type’ would never date them.
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Associate AD [1069]
TigerPulse: 91%
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Senior voters were a surprise loser for Hillary in 2016.
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Nov 3, 2024, 11:09 AM
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We will see about this time. I am very eager to see all the demographic breakdowns after this election, no matter who wins. Will be very intriguing!
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Orange Beast [6319]
TigerPulse: 92%
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Posts: 12923
Joined: 2008
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Yeah what about
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Nov 3, 2024, 3:41 PM
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The lesbians over 65?
And the trans people over 65? Oh wait there are none since the fad to cover up mental illness has only been around for a few woke years.
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Standout [202]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I need to
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Nov 3, 2024, 4:12 PM
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get my new Obama phone tomorrow just in case I wake up Wednesday to chaos and anarchy
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Oculus Spirit [41703]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 43385
Joined: 1998
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LOL zero chance that poll is correct
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Nov 3, 2024, 7:15 PM
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I'll take all bets
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All-In [10420]
TigerPulse: 97%
45
Posts: 12950
Joined: 2021
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Know why the new shocking IA poll is nonsense?
Nov 3, 2024, 9:23 PM
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Because the Harris campaign hasn’t bought any big TV ad time in IA since the poll dropped.
Harris campaign (especially her PACs) has enormous extra money. They’ve got the budget to carpet bomb IA with political ads … even at the last minute.
It’s not what gets said; it’s what is done.
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Asst Coach [830]
TigerPulse: 69%
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Re: Iowa.....wow. It's only one poll, but it'd be an extreme flip
Nov 3, 2024, 10:47 PM
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People forget fast, but Iowa was blue more often than not before 2016. Agriculture. Trump did massive damage to American farmers with his ####### tariffs. Enough that we had to have a farm bailout bill. It was the worst a president had done to farmers since Carter’s embargo of USSR over afghanistan.
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CU Medallion [19887]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Posts: 18109
Joined: 2012
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Seltzer was on The Bulwark Podcast today discussing - link included
Nov 3, 2024, 11:03 PM
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Ann states doesn’t have a data driven reason unfortunately but seems to be abortion driven (Iowa has 6 week ban) . At least my take from what she said.
https://youtu.be/P-ysKh_Gyd0?si=ECNl9RaUq_E9P4bf
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Replies: 24
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