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Ultimate Tiger [36525]
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Economy
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Jan 6, 2025, 12:22 PM
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I think people discredit how strong the US economy is right now, particularly compared to the rest of the world. The S&P just finished a second consecutive +25% year and doesn’t show signs of slowing. American tech, especially in quantum computing, robotics, space, and alt power sectors are absolutely ripping. China’s economy is a falling knife that nobody wants to catch. Europe is still sputtering.
The housing market is locked in because of rate decisions from 2015-2021, not really anything happening now. If Trump can get his tax cuts extended or made permanent and can bully the Fed into cutting rates more aggressively, #### is going to pop off again. Tarriffs are long term bullish, and I think the “mass deportation” threat will end with shipping out a couple people with DUI’s and stop short of wrecking the labor market.
In short, I’m bullish on 2025. People sitting on the sidelines are going to lose out on a lot of money still to be made. If you’re looking for a stock play, LUNR is set to launch IM-2, a mission to land some rovers and a NASA drill on the lunar South Pole. They’re up 400% last six months, and the stock will hit $40 before launch on 2/27.
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Tiger Titan [48585]
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why did Buffett pull out
Jan 6, 2025, 12:23 PM
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?
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Heisman Winner [87807]
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Didn't he go all cash?
Jan 6, 2025, 12:25 PM
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Seems like I read he pulled out of a lot of stocks.
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Ultimate Tiger [36525]
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Re: why did Buffett pull out
Jan 6, 2025, 12:29 PM
[ in reply to why did Buffett pull out ] |
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He’s a value investor and doesn’t see a lot of value. People make too much of Berkshire’s cash holdings. He just splashed on a huge stake in OXY. He’s also 94 years old.
I don’t see his cash reserves as a market or economic prognostication.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [104530]
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The one thing everyone misses on the economy, because it's the least sexy
Jan 6, 2025, 1:01 PM
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metric, but also one of the two most important.....
LABOR
You can have all the numbers be rosy, but labor is the one thing that underpins everything. What good is $1 million dollars, if you're on a desert island with 10 other people? Or in a sealed off, protectionist country? Like say the professor on Gilligan's Island. His millions mean zilch there.
Trump's tariff, trade, and immigration rhetoric stand to cause a massive problem most Americans don't even know we have. A labor problem, that no one really thinks about. Labor creates money, money doesn't create labor. Americans think the latter, but don't realize it only does that with some help.
I mentioned Texas. If Trump kicks out all of the illegals working in Texas, the state will have to come up with 480,000 new humans to replace the ones leaving, and THAT assumes every unemployed Texan (100%) takes a job left by a deported illegal. You can be rich as 4-foot up a bulls #### in Texas and you will have to be to get the labor you need. For houses, oil wells, whatever. And THAT is what causes inflation. And inflation calls our debt.
I'm pretty sure I understand Buffett's cashing out stocks.
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Ultimate Tiger [36525]
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Re: The one thing everyone misses on the economy, because it's the least sexy
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Jan 6, 2025, 1:37 PM
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Do you really think Trump and the cadre of corporate tycoons about to take over are going to round up and deport all of the cheap labor? I’ll believe it when I see it. Talk is cheap.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [104530]
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I would like to agree, but then why say it?
Jan 6, 2025, 1:42 PM
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Trump RAN on saying that, promising that, and in doing that it becomes a mandate. Most people want deportations and tariffs, that's what Trump's election shows. Now most people are clueless how much that will #### them over, but yeah, I'm not willing to bet on Trump being rational, this time around.
I voted for him in 2016 hoping he was all hot air, and got burned. Fool me twice, shame on me.
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Heisman Winner [87807]
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He's already talking about bringing MORE foreigners in on H1B visas.
Jan 6, 2025, 1:59 PM
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In 2016 he said H1B's were a terrible idea.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [104530]
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Yeah, well, like I said......
Jan 6, 2025, 2:51 PM
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Don't trust the guy. If I am expected to take him at his word, we're in for a wild, not so fun ride. Of course that could all be BS, but then why would I vote for BS?
People voted for him based on the words he's said. In the world of politics that equals what's called a "mandate". Dems lost bigly on this. He said he was going to mass deport people here illegally, ALL OF THEM, starting with the criminals first. He's promised tariffs, universal tariffs, then higher ones for countries he doesn't like. People voted for this. I tend to think he will deliver on his promises, to the extent he can, which will be much greater than his first term. He will have a GOP Congress, and that Congress also saw the same mandate, clearly. The news media has seen it.
So I see no reason he won't do what he said he's going to do, because that's why he won.
I've personally always thought (hoped) he would enact some shotgun immigration program where you come in, sign some papers, get some card, maybe a picture is taken, and just like that you're no longer "illegal". It will be just as unenforceable and unworkable as before, but this way he can claim he reduced illegals to 5 million down from 15 million, as 10 million of these cards go out into the ether.
For tariffs, I expect he will not do a universal tariff, but will target the tariffs to protect the few industries America has left that actually export goods, and then be Mr. Free Trade on stuff we don't make here or can't profitably (chips, etc.).
But again, who knows. People voted for stupid they may just get it. Stupid is the mandate.
For the record, I didn't vote for a President this election, same as last time.
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Rival Killer [2916]
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I think he's going to use the tariffs....
Jan 6, 2025, 4:34 PM
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as a political tool to reward his "friends" and punish his "enemies", whoever they are, wherever they reside.
I think he's going to use deportation as a weapon to try to "punish" blue cities, and create a situation where he can claim he supports "law and order", when in fact everyone knows he doesn't.
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Tiger Titan [47088]
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Re: Yeah, well, like I said......
Jan 8, 2025, 12:53 PM
[ in reply to Yeah, well, like I said...... ] |
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I don't like that this is considered any kind of mandate given how divided America is and how many people oppose this movement, and I feel that way over the last few Dem admins and Congresses as well. This attitude of "Ah ha! We won! Now we can force all of our ####!" is how we keep getting mired in problems. America didn't magically become MAGA in 2024. It didn't magically become Dem in 2020. When there are still millions and millions opposed to you, it's time to look inward and see how we can benefit all Americans.
But the ### clowns in DC won't do that, especially Trump.
I am, however, stealing this line for future debates:
"Stupid is the mandate."
Thank you for that one.
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Tiger Titan [50974]
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Well he died.
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Jan 6, 2025, 1:10 PM
[ in reply to why did Buffett pull out ] |
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And Margaritaville is anywhere you want it to be.
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [104530]
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It's 5:00pm in Greenland right now, our future 52nd state.
Jan 6, 2025, 1:19 PM
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After Canada of course.
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Rival Killer [2916]
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LOL. Nah, #53, after we get Panama at #52.****
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Jan 6, 2025, 1:30 PM
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Ultimate Clemson Legend [104530]
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Not feeling Panama. I think we will capture and occupy the canal, but
Jan 6, 2025, 1:45 PM
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that's all we care about there. Greenland, we care about the land, territory, natural resources, and arctic presence against the Rooskies. Canada, they have TONS of resources. Panama, they got a canal, and a bunch of jungles and malaria.
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Rival Killer [2916]
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I was just jokin' around...well, sort of.***
Jan 6, 2025, 1:49 PM
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Rival Killer [2701]
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So that will make the Gulf of America #54?
Jan 8, 2025, 5:25 PM
[ in reply to LOL. Nah, #53, after we get Panama at #52.**** ] |
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(assuming Trump already thinks that a gulf of water can/should be a state)
...which would then make the ensuing "Gulf of the United States" name change into the 55th state.
Man, with all these new stars, Clemsonrangers is going to have to get a new paintjob for his H2.
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TigerNet Champion [118508]
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Re: Economy
Jan 6, 2025, 1:54 PM
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I made 700 bucks sitting on my #### today, doing nothing. I've become the thing that I used to resent, but these are the rules.
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Heisman Winner [87807]
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I made $1352 selling stock this morning.
Jan 6, 2025, 2:01 PM
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Easiest $1300 I ever made. 1 click.
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TigerNet Champion [118508]
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Re: I made $1352 selling stock this morning.
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Jan 6, 2025, 2:49 PM
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Tiger Titan [50356]
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Sounds like I need to polish off my Robinhood account***
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Jan 6, 2025, 2:54 PM
[ in reply to Re: Economy ] |
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Top TigerNet [29287]
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THIS WAS YOUR SELL SIGNAL EVERYONE***
Jan 9, 2025, 10:30 AM
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Rival Killer [2916]
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If Trump doesn't go nuts with Tariffs and Deportations, the economy will do well
Jan 6, 2025, 2:50 PM
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You don't want to make it too hard to trade with the world, as we're not in 1890 anymore.
And you don't want to deport a material percentage of your workforce.
If he goes too far with either of the above two items, inflation will take off again.
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Clemson Icon [27000]
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Top TigerNet [29287]
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don't conflate
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Jan 8, 2025, 12:46 PM
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financial conditions with the economy. the S7P excelled b/c of the success of the top 7. very, very, very concentrated market right now.
Mag7 have more market cap than the Euro 600 combined. That's insane, bro. In. Sane.
I, too, have been long LUNR like donkey kong (high five doll hair entry). One of the only positions I held through EOY. I don't see us getting to $40 by 2/27, but I love the optimism.
But I'm very bearish on 2025.
Our economy is very liquid right now. And yes, we have relative strength, but we're the tallest midget. And that relative strength has cost us severely in sovereign debt.
Lack of breadth, bond markets, and weak consumer are the top concerns for me.
I'm staunchly predicting a rug pull in 25. Chickens gotta come home to roost.
China crumbling will impact the Mag7 as well, IMO.
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Clemson Icon [27000]
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Artificial FED interdiction that they keep rolling over... It won't last.***
Jan 8, 2025, 4:50 PM
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Ultimate Tiger [36525]
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Re: don't conflate
Jan 8, 2025, 5:40 PM
[ in reply to don't conflate ] |
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Never had you pegged for a 🌈 🐻
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Top TigerNet [29287]
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I'm coming
Jan 8, 2025, 5:44 PM
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Replies: 27
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