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Legend [18792]
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Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 7:23 AM
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Another poster claimed that star rankings don't correlate to success in the NFL. That's is debatable and not a fact, like some posters are claiming.
Besides, who cares? What we should be looking at is success IN COLLEGE. And guess what? Studies do show a correlation. But how is this even a question to begin with???
I posed the question to Chat GPT 4.0, which is pretty darn good, btw, and it said this:
"The debate about the correlation between college football recruiting rankings and future NFL success is multifaceted. Research has shown that recruiting rankings DO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANCE in predicting team success in college football. Specifically, analysis using data from 2002 to 2018 indicated that up to 36% of the variation in team success, as measured by the Sagarin ratings, could be explained by recruiting rankings. This suggests that higher-rated recruiting classes generally contribute to more successful college football teams. However, this research primarily focuses on team performance in college rather than individual success in the NFL."
I am sick of a few disingenuous posters trying to defend offering a bunch of fallback "5 heart" kids who did not get an offer at any other P5 conferences. Then turning around and saying we are "too full" to take a portal kid.
Besides, it's not just stars; it's a bunch of staffs with tons of pressure on them to evaluate these kids. To think only Clemson's staff can evaluate players is idiotic.
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Orange Blooded [2370]
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Powerful words
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Jan 18, 2024, 7:33 AM
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Agree
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Orange Blooded [2669]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 7:42 AM
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Yep. Its very obvious.
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Orange Blooded [3384]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 8:12 AM
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The other side of this argument is that 5* kids generally get signed by the best football staffs in college. Therefore these kids get better coaching than the 3* kids, better preparing them for the NFL.
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110%er [7535]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 8:52 AM
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This has to be a big factor. What happens to the 5* players that go to Colorado, to USuC, to Miss St, OreSt, Etc., vs 5*s that go to Clemson, Bama, OSU, UGA, etc. Lot of the 5* players that initially committed to non-playoff schools seem to either get into trouble, transfer, leave school early and never finish at a higher percentage than better programs.
My perception is really based on pre-NIL as today all players that are motivated by money just transfer every year anyway. But I guarantee 5*s at better programs are given more tools to develop and make an NFL roster.
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 9:09 AM
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That’s one issue that has been concerning to myself. You will have a 5 star for 3 years. Now with NIL it’s possibly more like 2. I’m not sure how this all pans out but the numbers hitting the portal is staggering imo.
Money? or playing time? With the schools that take so many portal players do they not recruit high school talent well? Thinking the high school kids will suffer in the long run because I would believe a coach would not recruit but 10-15 from high school and recruit the best portal players to meet the 85 and keep actual playing experience on their roster every year in the more important positions. Only issue with that is how much money are we talking about in going with 10 plus portal players. I’m beginning to think we may be headed toward the Danny Ford years or where Wake finds theirselves in some years. Ford would have a down year but then come back the next year and be really good. Wake is always average but every 3-4 years when they have a group of experienced players they have a slightly better year. In rambling I’m just making the point that we seem headed to growing a really solid team every 3-4 years but will struggle when the main contributors leave and the next group comes in and plays for a couple of years to gain more experience. Basically the way it’s always been but competing with teams that are recruiting portal talent to stay experienced in most positions.
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CU Guru [1432]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 9:45 AM
[ in reply to Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER! ] |
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Despite their lack of on field success the dirt peckers do a pretty good job of putting players in the league
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Hall of Famer [24226]
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How many coots are on nfl teams today ?
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:05 AM
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?
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CU Guru [1432]
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Re: How many coots are on nfl teams today ?
Jan 18, 2024, 5:10 PM
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Over 20
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Rock Defender [54]
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My poast suggests stars are not
Jan 18, 2024, 8:26 AM
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indicative of how high a player might fly in college, not the NFL (although most of those I named did well in the NFL).
My objective was to highlight the fact that none of us really know how a player is going to do coming out of HS, because the factors affecting performance are too many to name.
Therefore, recruiting stars cant have the final word.
In a way, though, Im making a limited case for the portal, which at least allows a coach to evaluate a player's performance at the collegiate level before bringing them in.
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Hall of Famer [24226]
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Tell 'em 5-7 coot. No one knows losing better than you.
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Jan 18, 2024, 8:38 AM
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Orange Blooded [4947]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 8:39 AM
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The two extremes say “Stars don’t matter” and “We cant compete if we take any 3* players”.
The reality is Clemson is not going to out Bama Bama or UGA or Ohio State in recruiting. In Clemson’s climb to the top our hit ratio on players was very high and that included 3* players. When we won titles, our door step was frequented by a lot more 5* players which require less evaluation. Subsequently we missed on several and have take a step back.
For Clemson to be in contention for National Championships we have to hit on players at a higher rate than most teams, because we don’t run them off. We have to retain players to build depth longer than most teams, because we don’t recruit over them from the portal. Lastly, we have to find a few 3* players each season who can contribute early, because the pool of 4-5* players that fit our culture is smaller than most schools.
6-10 in the recruiting rankings is our sweet spot and when we win over teams with 90% blue chips, it makes it that much more fun.
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Legend [16919]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:15 AM
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Agree. Now multiply our margin of error by limitations in doing any real evaluations in 2020 and development delays from 2020 effecting recruits in, at least, the 2020 - 2022 class years. Those kids left high school with significantly less playing time and development than their predecessors.
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Trainer [26]
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The rosters on 2016 and 2018 had less stars than we will trot
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:48 PM
[ in reply to Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER! ] |
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out there versus Georgia.
Cade hasn’t proven to be Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun, but he has skills. Time to grow up young man.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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I think the more convincing argument is...
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Jan 18, 2024, 8:55 AM
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that star ratings don't always correlate to success. The point being, there are plenty of examples of highly-rated 5-star players who, for whatever reason, didn't pan out. Conversely, there are also numerous examples of 3-star players who went on the have notable careers at both the collegiate and professional level. From a Clemson perspective, Gaines Adams and Hunter Renfroe are two prime examples.
Recruiting from the transfer portal is another matter entirely because it is so widely influenced by other considerations or factors like tampering and NIL offers. While there are certainly exceptions, I think it's fair to say that most of the highly rated players in the portal aren't transferring because of a lack of playing time. In many cases, they're looking for a bigger pay day and that is a game that Dabo simply isn't going to play. The simple fact of the matter is, Clemson doesn't have the NIL resources that some other programs like Miami, Georgia, FSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Southern Cal, among others can offer. Consequently, the coaches have to be more deliberate with their NIL offerings. That said, do we really want a bunch of mercenaries playing for Clemson who are in it primarily for the money and who, in all likelihood, would bail the minute a better offer comes along?
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110%er [6940]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 9:10 AM
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Stars do not matter NEARLY as much as the recruiters/coaches ability to watch tape and determine how effective that player will be within their teams system.
A 5 star does not necessarily guarantee success and over the last few seasons, id go as far to say that Clemson's 5 star recruits have been some of the most disappointing
of course a 5 star recruit that is evaluated correctly by a teams coaches and fits their needs will be an exceptional player but a 3 star "under the radar" guy can be just as effective if put in the correct system
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Trainer [26]
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There are some 4 and 5 stars in the NFL
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Jan 18, 2024, 9:47 AM
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There are also tons of guys who weren’t 4 and 5 stars
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 9:50 AM
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The issue is that you are assuming that we are choosing not to recruit the 5 star kids. You aren't giving consideration to the possibility that we offered them and they simply chose to go elsewhere.
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Hall of Famer [23112]
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Clemson 21,22 & 23 teams
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:01 AM
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were Dabo's most highly rated teams. All of em had more 4 and 5 stars on them than both his NC Teams
That's facts, what AI tells your DA ,doesn't matter
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Legend [16919]
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Re: Clemson 21,22 & 23 t
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:22 AM
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It’s such a simple and readily available stat but the portal bros just shrug it off.
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CU Guru [1654]
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There are a couple of things here.
Jan 18, 2024, 10:05 AM
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1.) the comments here about it only matters what coaches evaluations are and not stars don’t realize these rankings go mostly off of coaches input and offers. It’s the same thing most of the time.
2.) yes Clemson/Dabo is different, not every kid either likes the rural small town that is Clemson or they are not a fit per Dabo. We don’t offer every single kid for those reasons
3,) the biggest issue I have had is what was said first. Dabo will fall back to “friends and family” kids with little interest from any major school. The last 3-4 years have seen a ton of these where the kids were fallbacks but just so happened to be former players kids or former players at Alabama’s kids. Part of it is they wait too late to expand the net of high school top kids it appears. I feel like this was the first year he tried to get portal kids instead of those fall backs but it didn’t work. He has to change his approach to those portal kids. They are not going to transfer to a Place when they were starters with no guarantee’s. It’s that simple. He is not playing the game, appreciate his transparency but it is what it is.
I give Dabo credit he has made some adjustments. New OC two years ago, New experienced OL coach and New Experienced and good recruiter for the defense too in Rumph and made an effort on portal kids first before the low star fall backs. I wished he could have pulled off one more coaching change and got rid of Richardson and brought back Scott but could have been 100 different reasons why they didn’t happen.
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Legend [16919]
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Re: There are a couple of things here.
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:20 AM
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3) how do you rationalize this assertion with the fact that - as measured by 247s Total Team Talent Composite - the last 3 years are the highest overall team rankings and the highest average player rankings in program history. We one titles with the 13th and 9th ranked rosters. We’ve failed to make the playoffs with three top 5 rosters.
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Trainer [26]
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This is a gross over-exaggeration
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Jan 18, 2024, 1:04 PM
[ in reply to There are a couple of things here. ] |
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We have great players on both sides of the ball.
We need the QB to grow up. That’s all.
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Legend [16919]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 10:09 AM
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Chat GPT 4.0 is your source really?
I made some posts asserting there is no correlation between years played or overall earnings by star rating AFTER making the NFL because I found a study that specifically found no such correlation. Not sure if that’s what you’re referencing. I rarely wade into this debate because, like most subjects of debate, it is dominated by morons on the two extremes.
Your ChatGPT response doesn’t refute the lack of correlation of NFL success and star ratings. It’s taking about college football. But there is almost no way to separate correlation and causation in college football. Are the best programs the best programs because the recruit the 5* athletes or do 5* athletes choose to go to the best programs?
For all that, the simplest and easiest way to refute your extremism on the issue (MORE PORTAL NOW!) is that Clemson has literally gotten worse results after breaking an average player of 90. 5 of our 6 CFP appearances were with teams below 90 in average player ranking per 247 sports. The last three seasons have been the top 3 total talent roster we’ve fielded since 2015 - which is as far back as the index goes. Which almost certainly means most talented ever. So there is pretty much empirical proof - at least as Clemson under Dabo Swinney is concerned - that chasing stars does not return better results.
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Legend [17615]
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Stars matter
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:37 AM
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Clemson recruited off the charts from 2012 through 2018 and fell off for a few years. But last year’s and this year’s recruiting classes are back.
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Stars matter
Jan 18, 2024, 11:32 AM
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The actual rankings weren't any different pre-2018. Actually a little lower.
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Trainer [26]
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Youre confused.
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Jan 18, 2024, 8:16 PM
[ in reply to Stars matter ] |
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Your 2012 to 2018 is not accurate. Feel free to show the numbers
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Orange Blooded [2519]
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It's not that recruiting star-level is wrong, it's imprecise
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Jan 18, 2024, 10:55 AM
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there is a high level of variability.
Also, Dabo and Co. don't rely on recruiting services' rankings, they believe their own evaluations which have shown to be better.
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110%er [6397]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 11:01 AM
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I never understood that argument either.
Stars clearly matter. Programs that typically sign 4-5 stars are almost always better than programs that sign mostly 3 stars. It's hard to see how people would dispute that.
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Legend [18792]
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They are trying to defend bad recruiting, plain and simple.***
Jan 18, 2024, 7:08 PM
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Hall of Famer [22740]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 11:56 AM
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Based on the TNet recruiting page below that shows 2024 offers, we have offered 47 players who are ranked between 4 and 5 stars. We have offered 13 that are rates 3.5- 3.99 stars, 10 that have ratings between 3.0 and 3.49 and one that is not yet rated.
The 2025 targets look to be in the same range, although more of those are understandably not yet rated.
Not sure where this fallacy that we are not offering 4 and 5 stars started but it is incorrect.
I think this page is only showing players that we have offered scholarships to since the 2 WR recruits that were in town this past weekend are not on the list. Those 2 guys are being offered PWO spots which make sense.
https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-recruiting/
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Orange Blooded [3575]
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Back 2018/2019, I read an article that had a stat
Jan 18, 2024, 12:06 PM
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showing that the previous 10 national champions had a top 7 recruiting class at some point in the prior 3 years leading to the school’s national championship.
He quality recruiting with player development absolutely determine results in college football.
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All-TigerNet [13530]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 12:18 PM
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This is only 1 year but of the 2 teams in the NC game this year, the'23 recruiting class for Michigan was rated #20 by 24/7 and Washington was rated #29. Michigan had 17 3* in that class and Washington had 16. Both supplemented with more experienced portal players to fill some of their gaps and adjust for some of the inexperience and youth on their rosters.
Michigan had zero 5* recruits and 9 transfers. Washington had zero 5* recruits and 10 transfers.
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
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All-TigerNet [13530]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 12:40 PM
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Perhaps coaching and developing talent means more than stars?
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Athletic Dir [865]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 12:24 PM
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Michigan doesn't have very many 5 stars
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Oculus Spirit [78892]
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Mange is still complaining about a preferred walk-on ?***
Jan 18, 2024, 12:41 PM
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CU Guru [1388]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
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Jan 18, 2024, 1:02 PM
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If you do not like Dabo’s program there is a solution, find one that makes you happy. I’ll stick with Dabo because he’s WON 2 more Natty’s than you ever will.
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Legend [16262]
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I'm really shocked to learn that on average recruiting rankings
Jan 18, 2024, 5:40 PM
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generally have an impact on a college program's success. Thank goodness for AI being readily available today to help shed light on this perplexing quandary.
This is groundbreaking. Imagine the insights ahead once quantum computing enters the fray.
Outside of that, I'll take Dabo and his staff's recruiting assessments, offers, commitments, and roster building all day, every day over that of a fan, pundit, store clerk, bar owner, R/E agent - you name it.
These late takes you seem so obsessed with whining about have proven themselves more often than not to be solid additions, in some instances outright stars. Late offers for the '23 class (Barnes, Brown) have crushed it. What's idiotic is thinking that our staff just panics and runs out there offering schleps just to fill a scholarship number. Dabo has shown a knack for honing in on late blooming, under-the-radar kids, and is clearly ultra selective on entertaining any potential recruit based on the limited number of offers we put out there. He's clearly shown a gift for identifying the right kids for this program - two Natty's and umpteen ACC titles, and part of the national conversation every single season don't lie. Do other staffs evaluate players? Of course they do. Dabo just does it a whole helluva lot better.
Did you know that the OL guy we picked up late that you're boo hooing about just turned 17 in December? And he's an early enrollee with 4+ years to offer. LOL. PROTAL !!!
Go Science!
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Orange Blooded [2000]
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Chat Gpt must have won some championships
Jan 18, 2024, 6:31 PM
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That you would rely on his spittle and not trust the coach who has won 2 national championships.
Please give a breakdown of the portal players we need. What skill sets are their strengths? Why are they better than what players we have now? What NIL are they asking for? Will that upset the chemistry in the locker room?
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110%er [5578]
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I had no idea
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Jan 18, 2024, 6:43 PM
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Thanks for the enlightenment.
What I still cant figure out is how Dabo won 2x National Championships without the most talented roster? According to 24/7 Clemson had barely Top 10 talent during that run.
I guess, recruiting rankings of high-schoolers is an imperfect science. Otherwise, our OL, and WR's, and QBs would NOT have been stinking up the offense the last 3 seasons.
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Orange Blooded [2000]
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We shouldn't have recruited Khalil Barnes
Jan 18, 2024, 8:21 PM
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He was only 3 stars. Maybe he'll transfer
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Legend [16262]
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Re: We shouldn't have recruited Khalil Barnes
Jan 18, 2024, 8:29 PM
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And Tyler Brown. Cat was only the #122 WR on 247. Another 5-Heart that we're likely stuck with for another 3 years.
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Orange Blooded [4970]
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My bad TDd by accident, gave WIN award as apology.***
Jan 18, 2024, 8:24 PM
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Athletic Dir [890]
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Re: Guess what, recruiting stars DO MATTER!
Jan 18, 2024, 9:05 PM
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Most of the transfer portal kids are 3 stars that have developed at another school. Now they everyone wants them. So maybe some of the 3 stars we take develop into good players also. I agree stars do matter but I also think a kid having 3 years in your system is better than a kid that played well at non power 5 conference. Look at tez walker UNC went to bat for the kid to be able to play this year. Then he sits out the bowl game. I know isn’t the popular opinion but I still think the team that took a chance on you and developed you should get the reward when you are good.
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Replies: 43
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