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All-In [48078]
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ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:21 AM
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if they win out. Rex Ryan also says the 4 best teams are Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, and Bama. He says we would beat Minnesota by 40 by the way.
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CU Medallion [19704]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:22 AM
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This reminds me that I need a pedicure.
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All-American [555]
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69% chance
Nov 11, 2019, 8:23 AM
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Nice.
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Athletic Dir [1107]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:24 AM
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If Bama doesn't lose, they're in the playoffs, the current and former playoff committee members loves them some Bama, unless they lose 2 games, they will always have a spot in the playoffs.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:28 AM
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Maybe not if Georgia doesnt lose again and beats LSU.
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Top TigerNet [28452]
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Not ... going ... to ... happen.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:12 AM
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110%er [6825]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:24 AM
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*"Sure"* You know that percentage is just trying to talk down bama fans off of the roof of their trailer.
But bama basically needs both Pac12 teams to lose, Baylor/OU to lose. Ped State/Minnesota lose... and Georgia to lose.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:30 AM
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I don't think Bama needs the Pac 12 team to lose for sure. The conference champ isnt that important there. It's kind of like if we lose a game we are out. The Pac 12 sucks. I agree though that Oregon might get the nod, but its a coin flip.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 9:31 AM
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Not sure I agree with that.
If chalk holds, then the winner of the PAC12 will earn a top 10 victory in the championship game while Bama is sitting at home.
Oregon lost the very first game of the season and Utah's loss came with their best offensive weapon out and their QB playing hurt.
I believe in the Bama bias, but I'm not sold that committee can slap the entire west coast in the face that hard.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 9:34 AM
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That's the main point. You are correct. Can the slap the entire west coast in the face? Also, is why the will expand the playoff. After all, it is a business.
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All-In [10188]
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Only way Bama gets in
Nov 11, 2019, 8:32 AM
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is that if the Pac 12 or Big 12 can't provide a 1 loss champion.
Clemson, OSU (assuming they win out), and LSU/UGA winner are in.
Big 12 and Pac 12 more than likely will produce a 1 loss conference champ. If so, that school would get in.
IF Big 12 and Pac 12 cannot produce a 1 loss conference champion, then Bama has a chance.
But that's it. And, that is probably not going to happen.
Bama is out and needs a lot of help..despite any % that get posted on a web page.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Only way Bama gets in
Nov 11, 2019, 8:36 AM
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Not necessarily. Alabama has as good of chance as a Pac 12 winner. They are trying to put the 4 best teams in. If so, Oregon wont be in there no matter what happens. They may feel obligated to put them in there though.
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Orange Immortal [67582]
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A one loss Pac12 Champion should get in ahead of Bama...
Nov 11, 2019, 8:51 AM
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Bama will need some help from the Pack 12 and the BigXII to get in
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All-In [48078]
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Re: A one loss Pac12 Champion should get in ahead of Bama***
Nov 11, 2019, 8:56 AM
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Why? The league sucks. Maybe their goal is to get the 4 best teams in. If Oregon gets in, winning the Pac 12 shouldnt be much of a factor. We dont get in with 1 loss and an ACC championship. Why should a Pac 12 champ? If Oregon gets in, it should be because Oregon is one of the 4 best teams. Maybe they are.
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Orange Immortal [67582]
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The CFP committee...
Nov 11, 2019, 9:02 AM
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would have a tough time explaining why they omitted a one loss conference champion (from the Big XII or the Pac12 in favor of a one loss team that played one less game and got ot sit at home on conference championship Saturday.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: The CFP committee...
Nov 11, 2019, 9:07 AM
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True. That's why Oregon might get in. They also don't want to always exclude the west coast. If they did explain it they would explain it that Bama lost a close one to the top #1 team and that Bama beat the team that Oregon lost to. For business purposes they should go with Oregon imo. Anyway, issues like these is why they will expand the playoff.
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Heisman Winner [78895]
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Exactly. I have always said that the year after Bama gets
Nov 11, 2019, 9:56 AM
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left out with one loss, we will see the Playoffs expand to 8 teams. It should be this year.
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Top TigerNet [29783]
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While I'd like that to be the case
Nov 11, 2019, 9:28 AM
[ in reply to A one loss Pac12 Champion should get in ahead of Bama... ] |
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There is a built in argument against it.
If Bama is at 11-1 then that means they'll have the edge in games played against common opponents (having beaten the only team to beat the Ducks).
With that said, I don't like that narrative and would rather there be a higher premium on winning their conference.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: While I'd like that to be the case
Nov 11, 2019, 9:35 AM
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I don't get the comparison of common opponents when one team beats them THIRTEEN weeks later than the other team lost to them.
That argument against Oregon is the same as Clemson winning games by 30+ to finish the season and people bringing up how we barely beat UNC and saying that we just aren't playing well this season.
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Top TigerNet [29783]
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I get that. And I'm certainly not advocating for Bama
Nov 11, 2019, 9:38 AM
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Just pointing out an easy argument that could be made by the committee to put them over the Ducks
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Clemson Icon [25107]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 8:34 AM
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On ‘The Championship Drive’ last night, they flashed a graphic with Bama at 60% and Oregon at 50% - even if Oregon won out as Pac 12 champ - to make the CFP.
To their credit, Vilma, Mora, and Dinich all questioned it. And when Vilma started to rant about ‘what jacked up system are they using that could come up with such ridiculousness...” - the ESecPN host quickly tried to shut him up and change the subject...
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Campus Hero [13855]
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Those are the 4 best teams in the country and i think
Nov 11, 2019, 8:44 AM
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that's been pretty clear for weeks now. That said, i hope Bama is at home watching the playoff. Most of that 69% must be due to predicting losses by Oklahoma, Oregon, and Utah because i still firmly believe Bama needs help to get into the playoff. I'm not in favor of an 11-1 team getting in over a 12-1 conference champion. They got their shot at LSU at home and lost. Now lets give somebody else a shot.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Those are the 4 best teams in the country and i think
Nov 11, 2019, 8:47 AM
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I dont think conference champions should mean anything. Some conferences suck.
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Clemson Icon [27114]
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...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 8:59 AM
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:02 AM
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There are 4 or 5 teams in the SEC that would win the Pac 12.....so not really overrated. We just don't like the SEC.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:24 AM
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And yet, not one SEC team would win the ACC. Sure, basically anyone but the Coot could win the Coastal but that would be about it.
IDK that 4-5 would win the P12. The SEC do not play well in Santa Clara.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:27 AM
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There are probably 6 SEC teams that would win the ACC if weren't in it.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:38 AM
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 ">
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:49 AM
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Its for sure fact. One would have to know nothing about college football to deny that.
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Game Changer [1778]
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:51 AM
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Going undefeated and winning the conference are two different things. Our conference sucks.
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Game Changer [1778]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:26 AM
[ in reply to Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.*** ] |
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Lol the only team that probably could win the pac 12 consistently is bama. Lsu and ugay are Johnny come lately. If ugay lost to usuck they can lose to anybody. Flawed logic
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All-In [48078]
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Re: ...and some are overrated from the start.***
Nov 11, 2019, 9:31 AM
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This year there are probably 5 teams or so in the SEC that would have a very good chance to win the Pac 12 if they were in it. As far as as consistently, it's probably that same number. The Pac 12 has been very bad for a lot of years now.
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Campus Hero [13855]
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That's true, but the problem with that argument is that
Nov 11, 2019, 12:14 PM
[ in reply to Re: Those are the 4 best teams in the country and i think ] |
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there aren't enough non-conference games between P5 teams to really know without a doubt. Just look back at 2006 when people wanted an Ohio State - Michigan rematch in the BCS title game. Both of those teams got taken to the woodshed their next time out on the field. Florida beat OSU 41-14 in the title game and USC beat Michigan 32-18 in a Rose Bowl that wasn't even that close.
And then again in 2011. I honestly do think LSU and Bama were the two best teams in the country, but there's no way to know that for sure. It's entirely possible that 11-1 Oklahoma State would've beaten LSU if given the chance.
When teams are relatively even I will always be in favor of giving a new team a shot rather than giving somebody else a rematch. I don't want Alabama to get a 2nd shot at LSU this year.
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Orange Beast [6437]
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You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 9:30 AM
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That would be suicide by the committee
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All-In [48078]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 9:35 AM
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How so? Why would it be suicide?
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110%er [6825]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:00 AM
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You can't leave out a 1-loss (clear) P5 conference champion in favor or a 1-loss non-champ if all else is equal. That is simple 12 wins vs 11 wins. - Maybe the ACC could get dinged this year for that but it is a tough sell - That is basically holding the P5 together for the playoff format. Expect P5 conference to revolt if there was favoritism in the final poll. You are basically denying a P5 champion a shot at a title (in favor of someone who failed their first attempt)... fine for a group of 5 but not the big boys.
When they put 31-0 in over the two 1 loss B12 teams, that is a big different or a 1 loss Bama over a 2 loss OSU. But then again, it is a bit different as they selected the clear champ/team with a better record.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:14 AM
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Yes they could. If we lose one game we are out. You're overestimating what winning a conference means. If we lose to Wake and win our conference, a 1 loss Bama will be in over us.
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Game Changer [1778]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:17 AM
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Well bama should take the regular season off and dont show up until playoff time. They are guaranteed a spot. And everybody else fight for the other three lol
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All-In [48078]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:26 AM
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Thats what we did. We have the season off. There were only 3 spots anyway.
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Game Changer [1778]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:41 AM
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Clemson cant lose and be guaranteed a spot. Not this year.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:49 AM
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True...but we do get the regular season off.
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Campus Hero [13855]
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You can say that, but even with how good we've been
Nov 11, 2019, 12:19 PM
[ in reply to Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team ] |
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and how bad our schedule was, statistically we were still below 50% to go 13-0 this year. Even now our odds of winning out are 80% or so.
There is no such thing as a free pass to an undefeated season.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team
Nov 11, 2019, 10:27 AM
[ in reply to Re: You cant leave out a 1 loss PAC 12 team ] |
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Disagree. The Pac 12 Champ would likely have 1 win over a top 10 team (Ore/Utah). Bama likely will not. Right there is your best argument. Auburn might not even be ranked in the top 15 when they play (depends on how UGA goes). Basically, any Pac/B10/B12 champ would likely have a better strength of win factor going into the post season. Of course, if LSU slips to the Eash champ, that is very interesting but I still think they would be passed over potentially.
I don't think that a one-loss Bama will jump over a 1 loss OU or Ore/Utah/Ped State/31-0/Minn if they are their champion. There are three team right there with an advantage.
I think if we lose a game, we are out without a LOT of help. We would need a lot fo 2 loss teams. Then again, if Bama is 1 loss and we are one loss, how much do you think they will factor in Jan/Tua's health. Then again, we will NOT lose, so that is a stupid argument at this time.
Bama is basically on the outside looking in without control of their destiny.
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Ultimate Tiger [38595]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 9:49 AM
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If , and ONLY if ... they will promise to give them to us for the first rounder in Atlanta .
That way , after LSU spanks tOSU we can go ahead and bust out a second SEC powerhouse on our way to the repeat .
That's my stipulation .
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Walk-On [137]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 10:00 AM
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I hate to say this especially when talking about being a "deserving" team (like a 1-loss conference champion) but does anyone here actually think any of these teams are "better" than Alabama? Oregon lost to a team (Auburn) which I fully expect Bama to easily handle. In addition, they have had several scares against teams they were significantly favored over. Same thing for Baylor/OU. Oklahoma's loss was bad from a D standpoint (heard that before) and Baylor just played arguably the ugliest game any "contender" has played to this point. They are playing well over their heads and it will catch up. Outside of those teams, there is no one else. I do think both OU and Oregon SHOULD be in front of UGA. That was a terrible loss, at home, to a 3rd string QB. No excuse there. But Georgia has the benefit of the doubt as they have a good win (Florida) and have a chance to beat LSU in the SECCG so that will work itself out.
I do not like thinking it but none of these PAC 12/Big 12 teams would be favored over Bama for good reason. I hate the prospect of it but based on what we've seen play out so far, I can't really argue that strongly against Bama being in the #4 spot as no one else has proven worthy of it.
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Scout Team [159]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 10:16 AM
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No I don't! In reality though- is anybody ever favored over Alabama?
Don't get me wrong, Alabama is still a good team but not to the point that are giants of college football. we all know anything can happen on any given Saturday
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110%er [3674]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 10:19 AM
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538 only gives Alabama an 11% chance of making the CFP. They put Oklahoma and Oregon in the driver's seat.
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110%er [3674]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 10:20 AM
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It increases to 20% if Alabama wins out.
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Orange Blooded [2238]
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Re: ESPN says Alabama has a 69% chance of being in the playoff
Nov 11, 2019, 10:38 AM
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nice
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Ring of Honor [23085]
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I hate those percentage predictors. It's not anything real.
Nov 11, 2019, 12:26 PM
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There is not a percentage chance one team will beat another team unless you can somehow correctly simulate every single variable. That's impossible. And the metrics they have cover maybe 5% of the actual variables.
It's false science.
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